Logic prevails in Egypt

[airiefairie.livejournal.com]

The Islamists are the big winner from the first round on the parliamentary elections in Egypt. The top 3 parties are of various Islamist stripes and they form 65% of the vote combined. But there are some differences that are not to be overlooked.

First, two links from Reuters:

Strict Muslims stake claim on Egypt's political scene
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/21/us-egypt-election-salafis-idUSTRE7AK0OF20111121
Egypt Salafis want no pact with Muslim Brotherhood
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/04/us-egypt-salafi-idUSTRE7B30MN20111204

The Freedom and Justice Party (the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood) won 36% of the vote on the first round, followed by the Salafist party An-Nur with 24% and the liberal coalition Egyptian Bloc with 13%. The moderate Islamist party Al-Wasat won 4.3%. This is on the first tour where 30% of the seats were up for grabs. The rest will be decided on the second tour and the final result will be known in January.

This result is hardly a surprise. Long before the election it was obvious that the Muslim Brotherhood would win the most votes. The Brotherhood promised that they wouldn't impose Sharia law as many had feared, especially the Christian minority and the secularists. This way the Brotherhood distanced themselves from An-Nur and their staunch advocacy of strict Sharia law after the Saudi model.

The result is logical because the only organised parties in the post-dictatorial Arab countries are the Islamist ones. And while the radical Islamists may not have a lot of influence in society, there are various moderate Islamist formations like the Brotherhood who will probably take the reigns in most of those countries.

In fact, what many in the West do not understand is that having a moderate Islamist party in government does not necessarily mean returning to the retrograde principles of the past. Just on the contrary... in many Arab countries it is the secularist type of parties who are associated with post-colonialism. It is another question that after the fall of those post-colonialism regimes, a form of crypto-colonialism remained behind, which means a society that is still dependent on the legacy of colonialism, despite overthrowing those regimes. The old power structures and institutions are still in place. These changes that we keep talking about will not happen overnight, and there will be still a lot of difficulties to overcome before we can speak of a complete transformation, if that is possible at all.

Israel is particularly concerned with the results from the first round. Ehud Barak, the Israeli minister of defense called the result "very, very worrying" and he expressed a hope that Egypt would honour its international commitments, including the 1979 peace treaty with Israel. Meanwhile Hamas are very delighted with the win of their ideological brothers in Egypt, because they can expect more support for the Palestinian cause.

The linked Reuters articles are expressing a sentiment that is shared by most analysts - that the Arab spring has given way to the rise of political Islam. The increasing role of the moderate Islamists in Tunisia, the calls for a Libya-specific form of Sharia law to replace the Gaddafi regime, and now the imminent victory of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, are outlining the general direction where the Arab countries will be going after the fall of their autocratic regimes.

Of course, the Muslim Brotherhood does state Islamic law as their preferred primary source of legislation. And though they define themselves as representatives of moderate Islam, they still reject the Turkish model of a strict separation between religion and state. What is more worrying is that the Brotherhood will probably have to form a coalition government with the radical Salafites, who insist that the strictest form of Islamic laws should be adopted, including those deemed most un-democratic by their critics.

Comments

The MB and terrorism.

[sophia-sadek.livejournal.com]

On this side of the frontier, people get the impression that the MB is a terrorist organization due to the fact that a spin-off group from the MB is dedicated to political violence. This makes as much sense as holding the Freemasons responsible for the acts of the Klan. I support the efforts of the MB to pursue social justice. If they have some success in that regard, they may eventually come around to advocating intellectual progress as well.

[meus-ovatio.livejournal.com]

I don't have any major or existential concerns with Islamism as a function of Arab states. That's how Islamism becomes mainstreamed, moderated and accountable. Without the chains of command you have extremism. With the chains of command, you are inevitably led to the pragmatic project of governance.

[anfalicious.livejournal.com]

USA and Israel worrying about religion in politics. Lulz.

But on a more serious note, it will be interesting to see how this shapes the constitution. As you've mentioned the success of the Islamist parties is due to being the only people who have been able to get their shit in one sock. The result could be a constitution that doesn't represent the values of the people now, let alone moving forward. Is this a problem for future Egypt?

[airiefairie.livejournal.com]

It depends how mainstream the Muslim Brotherhood would become in the next few years. If they provide the counterweight to radical Islamism, they could become a formidable force in Egyptian politics. There are already indications that the military would rather opt to work with them rather than anger them for no reason. The two sides could strike a deal... the official government does not touch the military with a feather, and the military provides the back-up against potential popular unrest. And the Brotherhood could always play the "look at the alternative - extremist Islam or neo-colonial secularism" card. Either way, the democracy that the West was imagining for a short time, looks like the most improbable scenario.