[identity profile] peristaltor.livejournal.com
Does the US still have something silly called the "fiscal cliff" looming? I haven't paid enough attention to the mainstream pressers of late. It's too hard not to laugh at their silliness.

Instead, I thought I would distill the various choices and just for fun examine the options. When it comes to the Federal deficit/debt situation, it seems to me we have just three courses of action:

  • Continue to spend more than the IRS collects in revenues, racking up ever more bond debt in the process;
  • Balance the budget; and
  • Create a revenue surplus and start paying off old bonds.


I know that according to both of our mainstreams, the press and the economists, only the third option is "viable" to our country's continuing economic health. After all, if we don't do something soon, won't something horrible happen involving interest or our children? That depends upon who you ask, of course. )
[identity profile] paft.livejournal.com


Voter: Do you think that health care is a right or a privilege?

Jesse Kelly: My belief system is this. The health care for anybody but especially for our nation. The highest quality and lowest cost can only be delivered without the government. What I believe is that all things we drive, we do, health care, anything, is a privilege to some extent. Life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness, those are inalienable rights endowed by your creator. If you’re claiming a right, if you’re going to say anything’s a right, if you’re going to say you have a right to a cell phone, then who has the responsibility to pay for it? That’s what I believe.

Voter: So you’d put health care as a privilege then?

Kelly: Absolutely, absolutely. I believe that all things we have are. But they’re privileges you earn.


Read more )
[identity profile] drblasphlemy.livejournal.com


Bill explains it better than I can. At current spending rates, there will be no U.S. Economy by 2027. That's not Bill Whittle's opinion: that's the opinion of the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office, using the Obama Administration's own numbers, and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner doesn't even bother to deny it.

No politician is going to volunteer to be the one to refuse voting for extensions of benefits for reasons of far off debt collapse. If they did it would be tantamount to political suicide. It's going to take an unprecedented society-wide shift in opinions on entitlements.

How do we as a nation of old and young, rich and poor, left and right work together and come up with a solution to turn this train around? Even if you don't like it at least Paul Ryan has a plan.

I know that jobs has been the big topic of discussion this election year but I am surprised that we have not heard more on the budget with the growing financial crisis in Europe.
[identity profile] underlankers.livejournal.com
In a sign of how long a time has passed since the last time the Germans proposed controlling the economies of other states, this proposal was recently made:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204740904577195180019183416.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

For the life of me, I cannot possibly find one thing to defend this on any point of view that favors freedom, individual rights, or individual autonomy. The Germans have a massive debt problem of their own, by their own selves without having bailed out other countries to further the European debt issue. The Germans have no real room IMHO to declare that they could or should take over the economies of other countries on this problem, namely hypocrisy of the strong over the weak, alone. When we get into the many issues of how little-equipped Berlin would be to make Greeks pay taxes when their own government is incapable of so doing, the absurdity worsens. When we try to square that this idea is remotely broached in a fashion that it might be acceptable to any significant number of people, it's worth questioning whether the EU as presently constructed can endure a pretense of democracy in any real sense.

I think this is a rather unpleasant idea and if it's agreed to by the Greek government I foresee it being deposed by the Greek military in the near future. Your thoughts?
[identity profile] a-new-machine.livejournal.com
So the big looming budget debate in the run-up to the election will likely center around Obama's proposal to cut military spending. Many right-wing commentators are criticizing what they see as a retreat from a viably-funded military, that Obama has "decided to budget only enough for some threats." Of course, every defense budget we've ever had only budgets enough for "some" threats (did we ever budget enough to take on all of Europe, China, Russia AND the slavering Canadian hordes in multi-front wars simultaneously?), but here they're likely talking about Obama's decision to derail the long-term DoD policy of being able to win two wars simultaneously. On the left, others have said that the defense budget itself is a security risk if it stays as high as it is now.

The question I have is, how much should the US be spending in a time when it's the only global superpower, and its security interests are primarily threatened by small, isolated regimes and guerrilla/terrorist groups? Because we're sure as hell spending a lot now... )
[identity profile] luzribeiro.livejournal.com
In October the European Commission, the ECB and the IMF reached an agreement with Greece about reforms that would return Greece on the right track. The details of the rescue package included losses for the banks involved in giving loans to Greece, plus increasing the European fund for financial stability. The purpose of those measures was to stop the spreading of the Greek crisis into Europe.

But why in the world has Greece sunken so low? Well, it's no secret that Greece has lived well beyond its means long before it had even joined the Euro zone. The Greek government started taking fatter loans and spending even more after the country joined the Euro. The public expenses skyrocketed, the salaries in the public sector were practically doubled within the last 10 years. At the moment Greece has  more than 340 billion Euro of debt, and all that, with a population of 11 million!

Read more... )
[identity profile] luzribeiro.livejournal.com
Italy is desperately looking for solutions to its debt crisis. And it may have found them in... China. Italian representatives have reportedly negotiated with the largest sovereign investment fund in the world, China Investment Corp. Italy is hoping that the Chinese will invest in Italian debt and various Italian companies (source: FT).

This is happening in the middle of the second hysterical sell-off on the financial markets for the last month. The last one resulted in increased prices on which Italy could re-finance its debt. On Monday the profitability of the 1-year Italian obligations surpassed 5.5%. Yesterday Italy tested the markets with another emission of debt for another 7 billion Euro.

There is still no detailed information about what exactly the Italian and Chinese side were negotiating because most officials involved are keeping confidentiality. There's no information about the exact size of the Chinese investments in Italian debt up till now, but FT calculates that we're probably talking of 4% of the 1.9 billion Euro debt (which is more than Spain, Greece and Ireland put together, so you can imagine).

But still, the talks between the two sides are causing some conclusions that this could be a major step in the process called "Chinese colonization of Europe". For years China has been trying to step steadily into Europe and various Chinese companies have made big investments in Europe. Like the purchase of the automobile company Volvo. So far the European leaders, although keeping good relations with the Chinese, have kept the strategic industries from the influx of Chinese capital. But now may be the turning point where Italy sets a precedent and opens the door for fresh Chinese capital. After all, it's a globalized world where capital is presumably free to flow around unimpeded, right? And given Europe's deep trouble with Greece and the other suffering countries, China might be their last and only option left.
[identity profile] yahvah.livejournal.com
I read this ridiculous article and thought I'd make a parody after [livejournal.com profile] pastorlenny's own heart for y'all. Clearly we have no choice but to raise the debt-ceiling indefinitely. We have all the justification we need.

1) Treason against the United States, shall consist only in levying War against them, or in adhering to their Enemies, giving them Aid and Comfort.
2) Any instance of exchanging a coin or medallion not produced by the United States, and with a dollar denomination, such as Liberty Dollar bullion, shall be considered as War.
3) Therefore, Liberty Dollar bullion is treasonous.
4) If the United States does not confiscate any other such contraband, then the United States allows a double standard.
5) Australian and Canadian bullion is owned by U.S. citizens and not subject to confiscation.
6) Therefore, the United States allows a double standard.
7) Since the United States must be just, the double standard must be resolved.
8) The only resolution to this double standard is confiscation of all dollar-denominated bullion products.
9) Therefore, the United States must confiscate dollar-denominated bullion products from its citizenry and make War with Australia and Canada.
[identity profile] abomvubuso.livejournal.com
It's a question that's older than a year now. Is the world entering another recession? Will there be a double-dip? The response often is: "Stop scaring people! The crisis is only in people's heads and on the screens at the Stock Exchange!" Maybe so. But the events that stem from that fact are more than real. So the question is valid: is there another recession knocking at the door? Well, there's no 100% answer to that. But still, a brief look at the events from the last couple of weeks is telling us that the financial markets are now seriously considering the possibility that the global economy would step on the brakes again, and hit its head on the windscreen. And, regardless of our desire to bury our heads in the sand, the chances for that are increasing by the day.

There's a myriad of reasons for the concerns of the investors - from the creeping debt crisis in the Eurozone, to the US credit rating downgrade. The latter probably served as the trigger for the market tremors in the last few weeks, but the deeper problem is that the markets seem to have totally lost their confidence in the ability of the politicians to find solutions. That's why even the unprecedented interventions of the European Central Bank which started buying off Italian and Spanish debt, and of the Fed which promised to keep its interest rate at zero level for another two years, didn't achieve much more than just delaying the plunge of the indexes for more than a few hours. Or probably a day. Nothing more.

Read more... )
[identity profile] dreadfulpenny81.livejournal.com
From the Los Angeles Times blog:
Swallow all liquids in your mouth before reading any further.

Updated numbers for the national debt are just out: It's now $14,639,000,000,000.

When Barack Obama took the oath of office twice on Jan. 20, 2009, CBS' amazing number cruncher Mark Knoller reports, the national debt was $10,626,000,000,000.

That means the debt that our federal government owes a whole lot of somebodies including China has increased $4,247,000,000,000 in just 945 days. That's the fastest increase under any president ever.
[Click here to read the full article]

When is it going to be the time to hold Barack Obama accountable for this debt? Seems to me people are blaming everyone but him, forgetting that Congress doesn't do anything without the President's signature.

The $4,247,000,000,000 increase in 945 days is what's increased during Obama's term. It's time for him to stop politicking about what the other side hasn't done and look at his own shortcomings.

Falcon punch to the first person who claims Obama "inherited" this debt. He was a U.S. Congressman when he CHOSE to run for President. He wasn't oblivious to anything.
[identity profile] zebra24.livejournal.com
I don't know why this is a big surprise for Obama.
The statements from S&P where clear and solid:
18th of April:
"In 2003-2008, the U.S.'s general (total) government deficit fluctuated
between 2% and 5% of GDP. Already noticeably larger than that of most 'AAA'
rated sovereigns, it ballooned to more than 11% in 2009 and has yet to
recover."


"Optimistic" scenario - net general government debt would reach 84% of GDP by 2013.

Are you saying USA got a "debt reduction plan??"
That's completely bogus statement:
2.1 trillion reduction "over 10 years" means government will owe more 14 trillion over 10 years, not 16 as was initially planned.

Now the Tea Party is blamed by the leftists (both from rep. and dem. side) for this downgrade.

I would ask them why they voted for the budget during last 10 years?
This holds true for any vote for any USA budget during last decade.

But most amazing thing for me is how it is possible for Obama to teach the S&P about "math errors".

This is real "change" for USA, as promised, and it is a shame, I think.
[identity profile] luvdovz.livejournal.com
Tovarisch Putin may clearly be a neo-oligarchist pro-mafia new version of a Tzar, and all other things, and he certainly may've made his points (mentioned below) as part of the upcoming election battle in Russia (we've gotten used to becoming hostages to the internal Russian political battles, as demonstrated during the recent DDoS attacks on LJ)... What's MOAR, he may not be telling anything new to us and may turn out to be the lost twin bro of Captain Obvious - all that is probably true. BUT. Maybe we could poise for a minute and think about what he said, and whether there isn't some truth to it. Yes, in other words, let's succumb to the Stockholm syndrome for a while and check this out.

Essentially, he said on a speech yesterday that "America is like a parasite sucking on the world's economy, living well beyond their means and dragging the rest of us down with it". Further down the speech (which by the way, unlike his US counterpart Obama, he didn't read on a teleprompter or, unlike a certain celebrity politician from Alaska, on hand notes), Comrade Dear Leader added that "The dollar's monopoly on world trade is a threat to the world markets". And: "The US lives on credit, and transfers and spreads much of that weight onto the world economy".

Of course, he was applauded by a horde of servile youngsters at that meeting (it was some summer camp of the "Ours" pro-Putin organization). We know how these events are being done. But.

All sighs of relief from yesterday's trimmed and stillborn "debt deal" in the US Congress aside, isn't that sentiment sort of what most of the rest of the world feels about America these days, but most times doesn't dare to pronounce it and only whispers it under its breath (China excluded)? And where does this lead us, in terms of trust for America as a reliable trade partner in the future? After all, whether the debt ceiling shenanigans were part of yet another elaborate domestic election game (but this time in the US) or not, what the world saw in the last weeks was the largest (and presumably the most reliable) economy in the world coming to the brink of committing a ritual harakiri. And that's bound to cause some questions around the world capitals. And possibly real measures.
[identity profile] luzribeiro.livejournal.com
What are the odds that the Democrats and Republicans will turn out so insanely crazy as to plunge the world into another financial chaos*, this time generated in the US Congress rather than Wall Street? Wanna bet against me? There is just a day and a few hours remaining after all, and I'm betting on a "sudden" change of mind and a "glorious" compromise and - oh, surprise! - a deal being reached.

Wanna play?

* why I'm saying this. Not to sound overly sensationalist and apocalyptic, nah. But most analyses indicate that a US default would trigger a domino effect which would ultimately bring a crisis on the markets that would make the 2008/2010 crisis look like a minor kindergarten squabble, which is making some people quite nervous around the world. Just when you thought the US is no more able to send further ripples across the global lake...

(This post may need some update later. Tomorrow maybe. I have no intention to watch the grass grow on CSPAN).

[edit] So here's the update. Surprise-surprise! (Not!) Obama caved in and got the deal the GOP offered. Wow, I'm so shocked! Aren't you? ;)
[identity profile] underlankers.livejournal.com
If they really do that.... )
________________

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/07/29/delayed-social-security-payments-debt-default_n_912763.html

Well, I predict if they really go and do this we may see the first turnover of a entire third of the Senate and an entire House of Representatives. First proposing to end all student loans and now suspending the SS checks. Rate they're going the Piss Everybody Off Brigade will have a 100% success rate. Republicans have loathed Social Security since the 1930s and I wonder how they're going to react if Boehner's incompetence as Speaker helps ensure this happens. They'll probably blame the Soros-Obama Azathoth cult-Democratic Party and say they had absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with it, and if the Dems had only entirely eliminated the government except the army and pork spending for Republican districts that all would be well.
[identity profile] ofbg.livejournal.com

"Thirty-four of the last 44 (debt ceiling increases) have been for less than a year. So, this notion that short-term is somehow the exception, it's actually the rule."

-- Sen. Rob Portman


http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2011/07/sen_rob_portman_says_most_debt.html
Read more... )
[identity profile] allhatnocattle.livejournal.com
First some facts...

China has dumped (sold) 97% of short term US dollars (Treasury debt) as the American future looks ever the more bleak.

China is the largest foreign creditor to the United States, holding more than $1 trillion (26.1% of foriegn ownership) in Treasury debt as of March. Which is nothing really as USA politicians are attempting to curb a deficit which is projected to reach $1.4 trillion this fiscal year.
Read more... )
[identity profile] a-new-machine.livejournal.com
So, with the shenanigans now going on in the budget talks, the fear of a looming debt limit crisis is growing. Those fears are quite real, and if no deal is reached, a default could have vast and serious consequences.

As a response, many (including Congressmen involved in the debt ceiling fight) have suggested that there is a constitutional bar on the debt limit, which would empower the President to continue borrowing above the limit to ensure that the public debt didn’t go into default. That’s attractive in some ways – it ensures the outcome both parties want, without having to give up anything to Congress. I wanted to discuss that claim in a bit of depth here, as I think it’s important, and will be more so if the budget fight continues much longer. Read more... )
[identity profile] dwer.livejournal.com
So right now, the GOP is attempting to shove the US over the cliff of default by refusing to increase the debt limit without massive spending cuts.

Funny, they didn't seem to complain about such things before.

At the beginning of the Bush presidency, the United States debt limit was $5.95 trillion. Despite promises that he would pay off the debt in 10 years, Bush increased the debt to $9.815 trillion by the end of his term, with plenty of help from the four Republicans currently holding Congressional leadership positions: Speaker John Boehner, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, and Senate Minority Whip Jon Kyl. ThinkProgress compiled a breakdown of the five debt limit increases that took place during the Bush presidency and how the four Republican leaders voted:

June 2002: Congress approves a $450 billion increase, raising the debt limit to $6.4 trillion. McConnell, Boehner, and Cantor vote “yea”, Kyl votes “nay.”
May 2003: Congress approves a $900 billion increase, raising the debt limit to $7.384 trillion. All four approve.
November 2004: Congress approves an $800 billion increase, raising the debt limit to $8.1 trillion. All four approve.
March 2006: Congress approves a $781 billion increase, raising the debt limit to $8.965 trillion. All four approve.
September 2007: Congress approves an $850 billion increase, raising the debt limit to $9.815 trillion. All four approve.


Now, I suppose you can make an argument for not increasing the debt limit, although I'm unlikely to agree with you. However, doesn't it bother our conservative friends on this board that this is -clearly- an example of the GOP doing something simply to cause Obama to fail, rather than any actual principles they might allegedly have?

Without raising the debt limit, the US will start to default on debt. That will devalue the dollar, crush confidence in the US both within and outside the country, and therefore impedes our leadership in the world when we're still involved in two wars, have bases around the world, and are participating in more than one "peace-keeping" mission via the UN or NATO. Whether or not those are reasonable things for the US to be doing, we're -already- doing them, and it seems to me that defaulting in the middle of these activities won't be very productive. Will the US be able to sign and ratify treaties? Economic agreements? Will foreign companies continue to invest?

(specific data culled from Think Progress.)
[identity profile] rasilio.livejournal.com
I've posted on this subject before but it can't be stressed enough.


Lets start with this article on CNN ...



http://www.cnn.com/2011/OPINION/06/29/cain.debt.number/index.html


"Each month recently, we've been bombarded with bad numbers: Only 54,000 jobs added in May, unemployment at 9.1%, housing prices down 33.1%, and on and on. These numbers, though, are all symptoms. If we continue, every 30 days, to focus on these numbers -- well, we're like the doctor of an AIDS patient who can only see his patient's lesions, pneumonia and bronchitis. Yes, each one of those can kill the patient, but he'll never get better until you focus on the underlying disease. Debt is this economy's AIDS. And that debt is represented by the number 350.

We spend a lot of time talking about federal government debt. But the debt I'm talking about reflects -- yes, federal government debt -- but also, more importantly, business and household debt. Over the past 20 years, the U.S. private sector -- consumers and businesses -- has taken on historic levels of debt. "




You can bitch and moan all you like about need for government spending or the need for tax cuts but ultimately it is all irrelivant because all of those things are just shifting around the deck chairs on the Titanic, changing who spend the what from the same pile of wealth. The fact is that the economy will not improve until this debt level is worked off and gets down to somewhere near the long term average of 150% of GDP.

Read more... )
[identity profile] stewstewstewdio.livejournal.com

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's the day to day living that wears you out. - Anton Chekhov

There has been a lot of stuff that came out of Obama's speech on Wednesday, but at least some lawmakers are taking it to heart. Apparently, the Senate and House will be working over the Fourth of July holiday to work on the terms of the debt limit legislation. But will this be enough?What else should be done? )


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