Debt Crisis

[ofbg.livejournal.com]

"Thirty-four of the last 44 (debt ceiling increases) have been for less than a year. So, this notion that short-term is somehow the exception, it's actually the rule."

-- Sen. Rob Portman

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2011/07/sen_rob_portman_says_most_debt.html

I’ve been surprised to not see more on the manufactured “debit crisis” that’s been on the front page for so long, on talk_poilitics in the last week or two. Is that a topic that’s feared here?

My view on what’s going on: Obama and Reid got together and decided there will be no resolution before default. Their reason: I believe they think they can hang the responsibility for the damage that will be done on the Republicans next year.

If that is what’s happening, because it’ll be obvious that they don’t care about the people and the nation but only their own political fortune, I think it’ll be a huge backfire that will sink the Democrats for years to come.
Am I wrong; and if so, why?

Another question: It’ll never be proved true but if it were, would it rise to the level of treason? I don’t know that answer but maybe one of you lawyers does.

Comments

[a-new-machine.livejournal.com]

We talked it to death a few weeks ago. The question is whether the debt crisis is manufactured because we can pay our debts, but not all of our spending obligations, on the income we've got, or the debt crisis is manufactured because Republicans are holding up routine increases to the debt ceiling for political gain.

As for your factually baseless conspiracy theory: even if it happened in the way you've conjured up, it's not treason. Treason consists of giving aid and comfort to the enemies of the United States, and this doesn't do that. It certainly hurts the US, but it doesn't directly help someone else to the level of "aid and comfort."

[soliloquy76.livejournal.com]

So this.

[ofbg.livejournal.com]

"Republicans are holding up routine increases to the debt ceiling for political gain."

I see it differently.

Nobody has challenged Reid on why he won't bring up anything the repubs submit. The common way to do it is to bring it to the floor for debate, add amendments to make it more to the dems liking and then pass it, and send it to reconciliation where the real bill will be written. There's no doubt Cut, Cap & Balance would go back to the house without cap and balance, fewer cuts and some tax hikes.

After a bunch of back and forth, we probably would have had a bill by now. Reid didn't want that.

[bex.livejournal.com]

What's with this LJ cut I'm seeing everywhere, "You are about to view content that may be inappropriate for minors"? The last three t_p posts have had it, as well as some others on my friends page. I never saw it before this latest round of DDoS attacks.

[squidb0i.livejournal.com]

You probably need to log back in.

[geezer-also.livejournal.com]

People who care about other people's friend's pages use them all the time :D.

I will grant you that is the shortest one I have ever seen, other than some of mine.

[ofbg.livejournal.com]

"Republicans are holding up routine increases to the debt ceiling for political gain."

I see it differently.

Nobody has challenged Reid on why he won't bring up anything the repubs submit. The common way to do it is to bring it to the floor for debate, add amendments to make it more to the dems liking and then pass it, and send it to reconciliation where the real bill will be written. There's no doubt Cut, Cap & Balance would go back to the house without cap and balance, fewer cuts and some tax hikes.

After a bunch of back and forth, we probably would have had a bill by now. Reid didn't want that.

[squidb0i.livejournal.com]

This idea that we can authorize spending - ie, actually spend money - then decide later whether we're going to pay the bill or not later on is beyond stupid. Bring back the Gephardt rule!

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2011/05/how-dick-gephardt-fixed-the-debt-ceiling-problem/238571/

[soliloquy76.livejournal.com]

Hopefully after this is all over, the 14th amendment thing will get some traction and put a stop to this nonsense.

[kylinrouge.livejournal.com]

I would take it a step further and require that all spending be paid for with some sort of increased revenue. Tax hikes, ending loopholes/exemptions/subsidies, I don't care. If we go to war, increase taxes to pay for it. If you want bigger Medicare, increase taxes that affect that. The idea that we can have these big programs and just procrastinate paying for it blows my mind.

[soliloquy76.livejournal.com]

Another theory:

Republicans got together and decided they wanted to sink the president in the next election, so they're not giving in to any kind of compromise and forcing this issue to be revisited during campaign season. They know the public is weary of all the political bullshit, so bringing it back again and again, causing disruptions in the markets and threatening to kill the world economies will give them ammunition against the president. "See, we're passing bills that will end this but the Democrats are killing them. It's their fault!"

See how that works?

[geezer-also.livejournal.com]

Actually you have to admit it is quite clever, since now it's the dems that are the party of no.

[ofbg.livejournal.com]

No, he already sank himself.

[gunslnger.livejournal.com]

The fact that LJ has been down since Monday probably contributes to the lack of talking about it too.

[ofbg.livejournal.com]

I just found that out. LJ SUX!

[ironhawke.livejournal.com]

My view on what’s going on: Obama and Reid got together and decided there will be no resolution before default. Their reason: I believe they think they can hang the responsibility for the damage that will be done on the Republicans next year.

I giggled.

Seriously tho, this would be a somewhat ridiculous stance for them to take. Republicans constantly take the edge on keeping their message in the media, and they are also the most (when it comes to public opinion) "reliable" when it comes to the economy. Obama's a lot smarter than that and to deliberately take the risk of putting his nuts in the wringer sounds ludicrous to me.

That being said, in fact public opinion is swinging wildly against the GOP on this. They are showing themselves to be completely willing to hold the economy hostage for the sake of political gain. I'm sure that there are a handful of truly well-intentioned men and woman in Congress who think that nothing will happen if the ceiling isn't raised, and that they need to "Save Amurikka!" from the ebil commies. Unfortunately for the rest of Congress who are standing against the debt ceiling anyway, they are slitting their own throats in next year's election. Public opinion is heavily against them in this regard, and the longer it goes on the worse the poll numbers get.

IF we default, which with the Tea Party idiots holding a gun to Boner's head seems more and more likely, the fallout (which I am certain will not be a non-event) will end up landing squarely on the heads of the GOP controlled Congress, not Obama, giving him another term. Which quite frankly, I'm glad as shit about.

[a-new-machine.livejournal.com]

Not only that, but Obama and Dem leaders have met most Republican demands, and Repubs just keep going back for bigger demands. That's the real issue, combined with a freshman class that Boehner can't control.

[mylaptopisevil.livejournal.com]

I'm just wondering if the President will invoke the 14th Amendment after all.

[a-new-machine.livejournal.com]

I doubt it. The 14th Amendment argument is kinda shit, tbh. Failure to raise the debt ceiling does not immediately equal a questioning of the validity of the debt, nor does default (which is, I'll note, different from not-raising-the-ceiling) equal a question of validity of the debt. The debts are valid, but unpaid. We're not saying we don't owe the money, we're saying we haven't the means to pay it. The debt is still valid once we get the funds. That whole default = invalid thing is just silly. If you don't pay your mortgage, is that a legal statement equivalent to sending your mortgage company a letter saying "I don't think I owe you anything, actually, but thanks all the same." Moreover, failure to approve one means of satisfying our debt obligations does not mean that the President can then choose whatever he wants to satisfy these obligations. The ability to borrow in the government's name is explicitly reserved to Congress in Art I Sec 8. Hell, even the Fourteenth Amendment reserves enforcement solely to Congress in Section Five. And that's ignoring the fact that Presidential power to act in times of crisis is at its lowest ebb where it goes explicitly against a stated Congressional statute (here, the debt ceiling itself).

The whole Fourteenth Amendment thing is a legally flimsy fallback.

[musicpsych.livejournal.com]

I was wondering that, too. It wouldn't surprise me if he made an announcement to that effect on Monday. I could also see Fox News making a big stink about it, if he did it. I wonder what kind of legal and/or public opinion/media debate challenges would follow.

[telemann.livejournal.com]

Yep, and by the time it's challenged in court (I wouldn't know who would do that other than Teabagger Republicans, which would put them in the odd position of wanting to shut the government down, which is what some of them want I really think anyway), but it would take months if not a year before the Supreme Court heard

[mikeyxw.livejournal.com]

To give you an idea about what a load of hooey I think this whole thing is, even if congress doesn't raise the debt ceiling, I don't believe we will default.

The government has money coming in from various sources every day, there is just more going out than coming in. The difference needs to be made up by borrowing. If the treasury looses its ability to borrow more, the government will still be able to pay for stuff from the money they still have coming in, just not everything.

Those with T-Bills are first in line to get paid, therefore we aren't going to default on anything. If you're expecting some money from the government, for wages, goods, services, or benefits, you might be disappointed, but the suckers who own T-Bills will be paid on time... along with their 0.05% or so short term rate.

[ofbg.livejournal.com]

I agree completely. If we default, it will be because Obama wants to for the political reasons I stated in the OP.

[musicpsych.livejournal.com]

I'm going to be pissed off if we have to go through all of this again in five months.

It would not be in Obama's best interest for there to be a default. Everyone would remember it happening during his administration, even though it wouldn't be his action causing it. Some people view the President as a superman who can do everything, and he would be assigned blame for this.

My view is that Republicans need to face the reality that they can't be stubborn and get their way while also avoiding default. I hope the Senate Dems are true to their word and reject any House bill that comes their way that isn't a true compromise. Boehner is showing that he isn't a good leader who can rein people in, and Cantor is showing that he is irresponsible (http://news.yahoo.com/house-republicans-challenge-senate-democrats-175735364.html). It's like a bad sales pitch, trying to limit the options like that. It's like pointing a gun at someone and saying "if you move, I'll shoot, and it'll be your own fault that you got shot."

[kylinrouge.livejournal.com]

They will raise the debt ceiling. There's no question about that. If the Republicans will only vote for a short-term increase with no strings attached, and it's the 11th hour, then I'm sure the Democrats will follow suit and Obama will sign it.

[underlankers.livejournal.com]

Yes, you are wrong. The Republican Party's had 20 years of Presidencies to work this shit through, voted debt ceiling raises cleanly every time up to the current Administration. They don't give two shakes of a rat's ass about fiscal conservatism, it's about sinking the country and blaming the Dems for it.

[jerseycajun.livejournal.com]

If that's the game plan, they clearly don't all seem on board with it.