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talkpoliticsBy now, most of you have heard at least something about the administration announcing it had broken up an alleged plot by elements of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard to assassinate the the Saudia Arabian ambassador to the USA in Washington, D.C. Iran has, of course, denied the allegations in their entirety and denounced the United States for even bringing the matter up.
To some, reasonably impartial observers, the alleged plot does not add up. While Iran and Saudi Arabia are intense rivals vying for regional dominance and while Iran has carried out assassination plots overseas before, the current operation, allegedly tied to the Qud's Force in the Revolutionary Guard is bizarrely amateur. The conspiracy involved payment of a Mexican drug cartel in the amount of 1.5 million to travel to D.C. and murder the Saudi official, preferably at a restaurant where the bomb might have the added effect of killing prominent Washingtonians. It is notable that skeptics of the plot are not limited to Iranians and their proxies, but a principle in the Chertoff Group and and academic experts on Iran. Iranian analyst Meir Javedanfar suggests the possibility that the plot was set in motion by a faction within Iran hoping to damage Khamenei enough to oust him from power.
As mentioned before, Iran and Saudi Arabia are both jockeying for position in the Middle East, hoping to emerge as the dominant force. Saudia Arabia has de facto control of both Bahrain and Yemen, and Iran has great influence with Iraq's Shia majority and with the government in Syria. However, Iran's relationship with Syria is not precisely going very well for them as most of the rest of the Gulf and Arab states have been roundly condemning Bashar Al-Assad's violent crackdown on protesters there. While it is unclear how this plot would benefit Iran or its Qud's Force, it is not beyond plausibility that Iran would benefit first from knocking down the Saudi government a peg. It seems odd for Iran to bring America directly into its rivalry with Saudi Arabia, no Iranian leader has lost a bid for consolidating power by highlighting American behavior or by portraying other regional rivals as puppets of America.
But to make it extraordinarily complicated, Saudi Arabia has lost nothing with this plot and now gets to trumpet Iran as a bad actor to the rest of the region and the world community at large. America, for our part, has been stalled on moving world action against Iran's alleged nuclear ambitions, and this plot gives added arguments for America to our allies about the need to further isolate the Iranian regime.
So -- given the swirling mess of bizarre allegations and competing interests inside and outside of Iran, where do people think this power play in the Gulf is likely to go?
To some, reasonably impartial observers, the alleged plot does not add up. While Iran and Saudi Arabia are intense rivals vying for regional dominance and while Iran has carried out assassination plots overseas before, the current operation, allegedly tied to the Qud's Force in the Revolutionary Guard is bizarrely amateur. The conspiracy involved payment of a Mexican drug cartel in the amount of 1.5 million to travel to D.C. and murder the Saudi official, preferably at a restaurant where the bomb might have the added effect of killing prominent Washingtonians. It is notable that skeptics of the plot are not limited to Iranians and their proxies, but a principle in the Chertoff Group and and academic experts on Iran. Iranian analyst Meir Javedanfar suggests the possibility that the plot was set in motion by a faction within Iran hoping to damage Khamenei enough to oust him from power.
As mentioned before, Iran and Saudi Arabia are both jockeying for position in the Middle East, hoping to emerge as the dominant force. Saudia Arabia has de facto control of both Bahrain and Yemen, and Iran has great influence with Iraq's Shia majority and with the government in Syria. However, Iran's relationship with Syria is not precisely going very well for them as most of the rest of the Gulf and Arab states have been roundly condemning Bashar Al-Assad's violent crackdown on protesters there. While it is unclear how this plot would benefit Iran or its Qud's Force, it is not beyond plausibility that Iran would benefit first from knocking down the Saudi government a peg. It seems odd for Iran to bring America directly into its rivalry with Saudi Arabia, no Iranian leader has lost a bid for consolidating power by highlighting American behavior or by portraying other regional rivals as puppets of America.
But to make it extraordinarily complicated, Saudi Arabia has lost nothing with this plot and now gets to trumpet Iran as a bad actor to the rest of the region and the world community at large. America, for our part, has been stalled on moving world action against Iran's alleged nuclear ambitions, and this plot gives added arguments for America to our allies about the need to further isolate the Iranian regime.
So -- given the swirling mess of bizarre allegations and competing interests inside and outside of Iran, where do people think this power play in the Gulf is likely to go?
(no subject)
Date: 13/10/11 15:02 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 13/10/11 16:10 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 13/10/11 16:12 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 13/10/11 16:37 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 13/10/11 16:17 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 13/10/11 16:18 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 13/10/11 16:24 (UTC)Realpolitik in practice, whatever the rhetoric that surrounds it. Does that make my point clearer?
(no subject)
Date: 13/10/11 16:37 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 13/10/11 18:49 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 14/10/11 00:10 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 14/10/11 00:42 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 14/10/11 01:03 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 13/10/11 16:37 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 13/10/11 16:39 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 13/10/11 16:55 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 13/10/11 17:12 (UTC)I like it.
By the standards of justice in America...
Date: 13/10/11 16:59 (UTC)Re: By the standards of justice in America...
Date: 13/10/11 17:10 (UTC)Cause that would be really silly:
Re: By the standards of justice in America...
Date: 13/10/11 17:43 (UTC)Re: By the standards of justice in America...
Date: 13/10/11 18:10 (UTC)Our good friends in Japan import more Iranian oil than anyone else, btw.
OMFG
Date: 13/10/11 19:22 (UTC)Re: OMFG
Date: 14/10/11 00:10 (UTC)Re: OMFG
Date: 14/10/11 03:36 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 14/10/11 03:33 (UTC)