The new Eurasian empire?
10/10/11 17:02![[identity profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/openid.png){kind=small}
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talkpoliticshttp://www.kyivpost.com/news/opinion/op_ed/detail/114411/
The man who called the collapse of the USSR "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century" now looks determined to create a new empire. Yep, I'm talking about comrade Putin. The latest hint about that came from Putin's deputy prime minister Igor Shuvalov - he proposed the removal of the rouble and the creation of a new shared currency between Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus.
In fact the re-integration between the three began way before that event. When they signed a mutual customs union it was just one in a series of steps in that direction. They're planning to create a common economic market until 2012. Shuvalov said he didn't rule out the possibility of the creation of a new currency because it was "the logical next step". He hinted it could be modeled after the euro. Which doesn't sound very nice but yeah. ;)
The last time these countries had a common currency was in Soviet times. Putin hurried to extend an invitation for joining the customs union to his new/old pal in Ukraine, Victor Yanukovich who's the pro-Russian heavyweight player in Kiev. If Ukraine agrees, that would create a new economic space spanning the "great four" among the former Soviet republics, now with a total population of 200+ million, stretching from the EU borders in the west to China in the east. Its political and economic center will of course be Moscow, where Putin is now on his way to retrieving the presidential post next year. He could keep it for another 12 years, can you imagine?
A big monetary union would give Putin additional economic influence and allow him to compete with the dollar and the euro by creating a strong reserve currency that would serve as an alternative to them (plus the yuan). His finance minister Alexey Kudrin said last month that Russia, who's the largest exporter of energy resources in the world, could soon begin selling oil for roubles. By the way that's what Saddam dared to do towards the end of his reign, and Chavez too - quitting the dollar as their primary trade currency. You know where I'm going with this. However, this is no Iraq and no Venezuela, it's Russia that we're talking about here.
Here are the implications from all this. A possible restoration of the regional union in some form different from the USSR (which is what Putin is trying to promote) is a factor that could give Russia the opportunity to boost its starting position in its struggle against its main two rivals - EU and China. Presently the Russian industry looks outdated in comparison to the European one, and the production is definitely more expensive than the Chinese because of the more expensive labour. And the time is approaching when it'll be a key source of energy and resources for both economies, so Russia should arrange its chess pieces well before the big game has begun.
Putin has no interest to compete for prices at the Kazakh and Ukrainian markets. And the rest of the former Soviet republics would find it hard to withstand the strong gravitational pull of a possible united currency and the presence of such a powerful economic entity in their vicinity - so they'd either have to join it or agree to enormous concessions. The Armenian economy is already almost entirely owned by Russian companies, neighbouring Azerbaijan is risking a Russian intervention in the frozen conflict over the Armenian enclave Nagorny-Karabakh (Russia has shown some iron balls towards Georgia already), and Kyrgyzstan is in deep crisis which urged them to ask for a vital bail-out package from Russia (somewhat above 2 billion $).
One would ask if the euro is the best possible proof that independent countries could co-exist within a single currency space. The problems the euro is having now could be an argument against creating another such common space to the east without having the proper structures in place beforehand. Probably the scenarios about the resurrection of the Soviet Union are still sounding like too much of a reach. Maybe so.
But on the other hand, although the Russian interventions in the former Russian satellites doesn't have analogues in the EU, Putin may've learned his lesson after the Orange Revolution in Ukraine. And he's now refraining from openly supporting Yanukovich before the February elections. Soon he'll have an opportunity to ensure reliable friendly regimes in both Belarus and Kazakhstan. Lukashenko's third term in Belarus is expiring next year and he'll have to demonstrate full loyalty if Putin turns out to be his only supporter among the big world leaders (highly likely).
This year Nursultan Nazarbayev is making 70 and he still doesn't have a clear heir-apparent in Kazakhstan. When his life-long term ends, Putin will surely be in a very nice position to influence the choice of his successor.
The readiness of the lesser Eurasian states to consider Russia's position about the creation of a new Eurasian alliance, with its own currency, and centered in Moscow, could be the price these countries will have to pay in return for their nominal sovereignty. Note the word "nominal". Because in practice, the economy dictates reality, and reality is that they'll never be entirely independent.
The man who called the collapse of the USSR "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century" now looks determined to create a new empire. Yep, I'm talking about comrade Putin. The latest hint about that came from Putin's deputy prime minister Igor Shuvalov - he proposed the removal of the rouble and the creation of a new shared currency between Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus.
In fact the re-integration between the three began way before that event. When they signed a mutual customs union it was just one in a series of steps in that direction. They're planning to create a common economic market until 2012. Shuvalov said he didn't rule out the possibility of the creation of a new currency because it was "the logical next step". He hinted it could be modeled after the euro. Which doesn't sound very nice but yeah. ;)
The last time these countries had a common currency was in Soviet times. Putin hurried to extend an invitation for joining the customs union to his new/old pal in Ukraine, Victor Yanukovich who's the pro-Russian heavyweight player in Kiev. If Ukraine agrees, that would create a new economic space spanning the "great four" among the former Soviet republics, now with a total population of 200+ million, stretching from the EU borders in the west to China in the east. Its political and economic center will of course be Moscow, where Putin is now on his way to retrieving the presidential post next year. He could keep it for another 12 years, can you imagine?
A big monetary union would give Putin additional economic influence and allow him to compete with the dollar and the euro by creating a strong reserve currency that would serve as an alternative to them (plus the yuan). His finance minister Alexey Kudrin said last month that Russia, who's the largest exporter of energy resources in the world, could soon begin selling oil for roubles. By the way that's what Saddam dared to do towards the end of his reign, and Chavez too - quitting the dollar as their primary trade currency. You know where I'm going with this. However, this is no Iraq and no Venezuela, it's Russia that we're talking about here.
Here are the implications from all this. A possible restoration of the regional union in some form different from the USSR (which is what Putin is trying to promote) is a factor that could give Russia the opportunity to boost its starting position in its struggle against its main two rivals - EU and China. Presently the Russian industry looks outdated in comparison to the European one, and the production is definitely more expensive than the Chinese because of the more expensive labour. And the time is approaching when it'll be a key source of energy and resources for both economies, so Russia should arrange its chess pieces well before the big game has begun.
Putin has no interest to compete for prices at the Kazakh and Ukrainian markets. And the rest of the former Soviet republics would find it hard to withstand the strong gravitational pull of a possible united currency and the presence of such a powerful economic entity in their vicinity - so they'd either have to join it or agree to enormous concessions. The Armenian economy is already almost entirely owned by Russian companies, neighbouring Azerbaijan is risking a Russian intervention in the frozen conflict over the Armenian enclave Nagorny-Karabakh (Russia has shown some iron balls towards Georgia already), and Kyrgyzstan is in deep crisis which urged them to ask for a vital bail-out package from Russia (somewhat above 2 billion $).
One would ask if the euro is the best possible proof that independent countries could co-exist within a single currency space. The problems the euro is having now could be an argument against creating another such common space to the east without having the proper structures in place beforehand. Probably the scenarios about the resurrection of the Soviet Union are still sounding like too much of a reach. Maybe so.
But on the other hand, although the Russian interventions in the former Russian satellites doesn't have analogues in the EU, Putin may've learned his lesson after the Orange Revolution in Ukraine. And he's now refraining from openly supporting Yanukovich before the February elections. Soon he'll have an opportunity to ensure reliable friendly regimes in both Belarus and Kazakhstan. Lukashenko's third term in Belarus is expiring next year and he'll have to demonstrate full loyalty if Putin turns out to be his only supporter among the big world leaders (highly likely).
This year Nursultan Nazarbayev is making 70 and he still doesn't have a clear heir-apparent in Kazakhstan. When his life-long term ends, Putin will surely be in a very nice position to influence the choice of his successor.
The readiness of the lesser Eurasian states to consider Russia's position about the creation of a new Eurasian alliance, with its own currency, and centered in Moscow, could be the price these countries will have to pay in return for their nominal sovereignty. Note the word "nominal". Because in practice, the economy dictates reality, and reality is that they'll never be entirely independent.
(no subject)
Date: 10/10/11 14:11 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 10/10/11 14:35 (UTC)That's the key moment here. When a process is pushed artificially for (geo)political reasons (as opposed to happening gradually and naturally), without having the necessary framework to make it work properly, it's bound to show all sorts of problems. Of course Putin & Co. could try to shape this structure as they go, but that's the much harder option. But he may not have time now, because the pieces are already moving and the longer he waits, the worse position he'll have on the chessboard that you mentioned.
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Date: 10/10/11 20:28 (UTC)And yet, I would be very curious to learn what Russians really think of Putin. It seems that they could be less impressed than we are (http://talk-politics.livejournal.com/1161669.html?thread=92194757#t92194757).
Besides, stagnation is Russia's pet peeve. Add to that a Putin who clings on to power...
(no subject)
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Date: 11/10/11 14:21 (UTC)What the Russians think. My estimations are that if Mr. Medvedev were a decent man and if the elections were not a fraud, he could beat Putin by dragging the protesters' votes against him, even though Medvedev's approval ratings (both official and unofficial) are modest compared to Putin's. The protesters' popularity is far from overwhelming but it would suffice (similar to what could happen in Belarus). Though that's a virtual scenario, since Medvedev openly lies, recently reinforces the "gentlemen's agreement" with Putin to castle; the ruling party "United Russia" controls voting (substitute the results with their own arbitrary numbers), mass media and the magic black box called “GAS-Vybory” (state automated system), where all the votes get consolidated. The judges are dependant. Opposition parties are not registered. Not a single trial has been won so far but just one which was insignificant for them.
It should be admitted that the protesters are weak for certain reasons. There are two representative groups among them: democrats and nationalists. The democrats have shown themselves as amateur infants unable and unwilling to negotiate with each other. Some of them have been downgraded to semi democrats for collaboration with the Kremlin. Others are responsible for the chaos in the 90s and there’s a fear that they could lead to the abuse of power, the country’s fall apart and more blood. The nationalists are quite stupid and scary too. People feel insecure with both groups – the Kremlin’s got good cards to play on till the oil prices are high, other things being equal. That’s in short.
(no subject)
Date: 12/10/11 09:04 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 12/10/11 12:49 (UTC)I heard an interesting idea around the BG forums recently. Go out and vote! But vote for some minor parties who have no chance to pass the 4% threshold. Or in case of the coming Municipal elections, they'll each have 1-2 members in the local parliament. This way none of the mainstream parties would have a chance to establish a stable majority, they'll have to negotiate, bargain, quarrel between themselves, and this will cause them pain. Something like what's happening in Belgium now, although the parallel is not very good. Still, the idea is to make them suffer. If you punch a hole in their pockets it's where it'll hurt them.
The other thing is voting for some parody party, like the Beer Party or something.
I may actually try that at the end of this month.
(no subject)
Date: 12/10/11 15:45 (UTC)As for voting for a minor or a parody party, if it works in Bulgaria, good ! :)
Sadly I am almost sure that, in Russia, Putin has already found a parry against that trick.
(no subject)
Date: 12/10/11 15:47 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 15/10/11 15:58 (UTC)Yes, he has: 7% barrier was created to prevent that minor parties get into parliament. All the mandates will be distributed among the majors, no matter whom you voted for. It also makes little sense to vote for one of the majors against the ruling party - it might slightly change the list of the stockholders - beneficiaries of the corporation, not the corporation itself.
Unfortunately there is no "winning strategy" as long as we speak about purely "how to act during the elections".
Out of reach, indeed.
Date: 15/10/11 07:35 (UTC)After all Putin himself gained his seat through a funny little game.. a silly Mexican soap opera titled (And this is how Madonna ruled the earth:
(Putin -> Putin -> Medvedev -> Putin -> Putin -> Medvedev -> Putin -> Putin -> Medvedev -> Rasputin (ruling from the grave)-> Hilary Rodham Clinton -> Madonna!)
Tomorrow on (And this is how Madonna ruled the earth): Madonna takes Lady GaGa on her way to a new term in Kremlin.