[identity profile] peristaltor.livejournal.com posting in [community profile] talkpolitics
In the last post I made on this forum, I pointed out a recent hardware hack to electronic voting machines here in the United States. As usual, people pointed out that this was an anomaly, that this could not happen in the Real World™, that it is just as important as Acorn (that one stumped me), et cetera ad infinitum ad naseum.

I say "as usual" above because a common tactic to dismissing one's rhetorical opponents is to simply demand documentation and then attempt to find a chink in the specific document that one can later use to dismiss the entire contents of the supporting evidence. It's done with global warming, it's done with evolution, blah blah blah. Let me be clear: Asking for supporting documentation is not the problem here; that's perfectly acceptable to defining the stipulations in later discussions. To dismiss the veracity of, again, the entire claim by pointing out small problems with some of the supporting evidence ignores what William Whewell called the Consiliance of Induction, "the unification of knowledge between the different branches of learning." Individual pieces of evidence from different sources compile a sound inference of a theory's veracity.

With that said, I've gone back in my personal LJ and dredged up some supporting evidence for the accusation that the US's current electronic voting machines might very well not be the best and brightest means for actually counting the votes people cast.



From Chinks in Democracy's Armor, 2008.

Essentially, I strongly feel very powerful people are in power simply because those that back them manipulated the results of several elections. I'm writing this post as a primer to those who haven't been following this information.

I don't blame those of you out there who have trouble swallowing this claim whole. The mainstream press hasn't been doing much of a job following it for you. They have instead dedicated their diminishing reporting resources to stories cheaper and easier to investigate, like Lohan and Spears, leaving labor-intensive follow-ups to voting irregularity charges largely unchecked. That doesn't mean there aren't people out there following these leads; it just means these people don't show up on the 6 O'Clock news.

Let's start with Bev Harris at Black Box Voting here in Puget Sound. As featured in the movie Hacking Democracy, she stumbled upon the source code for the Diebold voting machines online, and realized the security holes the code revealed threatened any vote handled by them. Combine that with Diebold President Waldon O'Dell's written claim that his company would work toward "helping Ohio deliver its electoral votes to the President," one can easily see Harris's reason for concern.

Okay, one can dismiss that above claim as specious. I've noted no hard evidence for election results compromise, after all. Hacking Democracy does demonstrate quite convincingly that the Diebold machines are unsecure in a scene near the end of the movie; that demonstration, however, does not prove anything but the possibility.

How about a sworn affidavit? Clint Curtis was a life-long Republican and programmer working in Florida. His employers asked him to do something he felt wrong, to write code that would help them control the vote. Read his sworn affidavit to find out the whole story. Really, it should be turned into a Grisham novel. It's that good.

Curtis later ran for office in a district that used the machines his old employers provided. He lost, but sued, stating the election was rigged and that -- since he himself had done it -- no one would be able to see any evidence of tampering. . . .

On the off-chance that Curtis, with his mountain of verifiable evidence and the current investigation into the death that prompted his affidavit doesn't convince (see the BradBlog archives for the story; I apologize, but I lost it), how about the 2004 election? Here in Washington State, the governorship was won by (supposedly) less than 200 votes. The commercial media bit the GOP bait and blamed King County's registration of felons and the dead for the close race. Ah, but what almost no one hears about today happened just a few miles north of King County. In Snohomish County:

  • Absentee ballots composing 2/3 of the total ballots showed a Democratic lead of 97044 to 95228 votes, while the remaining 1/3 of the votes, on touch screens, showed a Republican lead of almost 5% (50,400 Republican to 42,145 Democratic).

  • Vote-switching and machines freezing up occurred in 58 polling locations out of approximately 148 total. There is a high correlation between the problem machines — as reported by KING5 news — and the Republican percentages the machines reported.

  • Statistical analysis of machines that recently had their CPUs repaired shows a propensity for Republican voting that is present but weak on the individual level but strong at the polling location where the machines were placed.

  • The average of the 58 polling places reporting vote switching, freeze-ups, or repairs within two weeks of the election was 11.58% more favorable to Republican Dino Rossi than absentee voters did, and averaged 10.8% more votes than Gregoire on election day, while Rossi’s overall spread among all electronic voters at all polling locations was under 5%.


  • These discrepancies pointed to statistical improbabilities that truly stagger the imagination: the chances that the election results from these machines were accurate are 1 in 1,000 trillion. . . .



    From How Bush Got To Be President, 2008.

    From this:

    Newly obtained computer schematics provide further detail of how electronic voting data was routed during the 2004 election from Ohio’s Secretary of State’s office through a partisan Tennessee web hosting company. . . .

    The flow chart shows how voting information was transferred from Ohio to SmarTech Inc., a Chattanooga Tennessee IT company known for its close association with the Republican Party, before the 2004 election results were displayed online. (Emphasis mine)




    Techie Candy


    Though the article also interviews another expert who finds the schematic "inconclusive," Spoonamore continues by noting something very, very odd:

    Spoonamore notes that on election night in 2004, he observed what he calls the "Connally anomaly," in which eight Ohio counties that had been reporting a consistent ratio of Kerry votes to Bush votes suddenly changed at about 11 pm and began reporting results much more favorable to Bush. Election tallies in these counties, plus a few others, also showed the unlikely result of tens of thousands of voters choosing an extremely liberal judicial candidate but not voting for Kerry.

    Spoonamore immediately suspected that a Man in the Middle attack had occurred but had no idea how it could have been carried out. It was not until November 2006 that the alternative media group ePluribus Media discovered that the real-time election results streamed by the office of Ohio's Secretary of State at election.sos.state.oh.us had been hosted on SmarTech's servers in Tennessee. . . .

    By then, SmarTech had become embroiled in the White House email scandal, during which it was discovered that accounts at rnc.com, gwb43.com, and other Republican Party domains which were hosted by SmarTech had been used by White House staff, instead of their official government email accounts, to avoid leaving a public record of their communications. When subpoenaed by Congress, the White House said the emails had been accidentally deleted. (Emphasis mine.)


    . . . .



    From Further Evidence Explaining Our National Shame, 2009.

    By now, most must concede that, when it comes to voting machines, problems exist. Yes, most will grant that. What they will not grant is evidence that something conspiratorial actually happened.

    Until now:

    Five Clay County officials, including the circuit court judge, the county clerk, and election officers were arrested Thursday after they were indicted on federal charges accusing them of using corrupt tactics to obtain political power and personal gain. . . .

    According to the indictment, these alleged criminal actions affected the outcome of federal, local, and state primary and general elections in 2002, 2004, and 2006.

    (Emphasis mine.)


    Election tampering? Not historically unknown. Election tampering that can be neither traced nor (thanks pressure from the folks that make the tampering possible) corrected? That, folks, might be uniquely American.



    There are plenty of external links to peruse at your leisure. Enjoy the evidence.

    (no subject)

    Date: 1/10/11 19:42 (UTC)
    From: [identity profile] stewstewstewdio.livejournal.com
    I say "as usual" above because a common tactic to dismissing one's rhetorical opponents is to simply demand documentation and then attempt to find a chink in the specific document that one can later use to dismiss the entire contents of the supporting evidence.

    Yup. That's all it took. Next. A lot of coulda, shoulda, woulda. But not the actual occurence and evidence for your claims. all conjecture and conspiracy theory and no real evidence.

    (no subject)

    Date: 1/10/11 19:53 (UTC)
    From: [identity profile] stewstewstewdio.livejournal.com
    This.

    Uh oh. We agreed on something. I feel Armageddon coming.

    (no subject)

    From: [identity profile] badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com - Date: 1/10/11 19:54 (UTC) - Expand

    (no subject)

    Date: 2/10/11 01:35 (UTC)
    From: [identity profile] underlankers.livejournal.com
    If the three of us agree on something then most assuredly Armageddon should be nigh. I'll bring the popcorn.

    (no subject)

    Date: 1/10/11 20:02 (UTC)
    From: [identity profile] the-rukh.livejournal.com
    The thing is though, people were asking for investigation, not condemnation (well some people were, but there's some people for anything), and I think if you have ample evidence that something was not right, investigation makes sense, doesn't it?

    (no subject)

    Date: 1/10/11 20:07 (UTC)
    From: [identity profile] stewstewstewdio.livejournal.com
    I think if you have ample evidence that something was not right, investigation makes sense, doesn't it?

    That would be the logic behind the birthers, truthers, etc.

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    Date: 2/10/11 00:09 (UTC)
    From: [identity profile] stewstewstewdio.livejournal.com
    Ah, did you get your feelings hurt? That's sad

    Hmmmm..... Seems the whole community disagrees with you. If you read through the comments on your new post, you'll see the left and the right coming together to call this conspiracy theory. If only Congress could agree as much as the community does.

    (no subject)

    From: [identity profile] stewstewstewdio.livejournal.com - Date: 3/10/11 01:27 (UTC) - Expand

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    Date: 1/10/11 19:54 (UTC)
    From: [identity profile] mrbogey.livejournal.com
    The more troubling thing is the bad use of statistics to try and build a narrative.

    Statistical anomalies don't work by building them backwards.

    Let me type 5 random numbers. 1, 45, 10, 12, 84. What are the odds I would write those five numbers? One in a billion! And yet there they are. Conspiracy!

    Taking raw numbers from a machine and saying, "it favored someone. Conspiracy!" is just not good statistics. You'd have to show an atypical result by using what the predictive result would normally have been. Comparing general absentee ballots to touch-screen ballots is literally apples to oranges as there's no correlation between the two.
    Edited Date: 1/10/11 19:54 (UTC)

    (no subject)

    Date: 1/10/11 20:04 (UTC)
    From: [identity profile] badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com
    Yep. Not to mention that the media study following the election found no difference between exit polling at machine v. non-machine (http://www.electionmathematics.org/em-exitpolls/EvaluationJan192005.pdf).

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    Date: 1/10/11 20:01 (UTC)
    From: [identity profile] notmrgarrison.livejournal.com
    I skimmed through this, it seemed like every case had the republicans fixing the machines, which makes the whole thing not believable.

    There is a high correlation between the problem machines — as reported by KING5 news — and the Republican percentages the machines reported.


    Unless there was a strong independent, then there's just as well a high correlation with the Democrat percentages.

    (no subject)

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    Date: 1/10/11 20:38 (UTC)
    From: [identity profile] kylinrouge.livejournal.com
    When you're in the conspiracy line of thinking, everything becomes evidence for something.

    (no subject)

    Date: 2/10/11 12:41 (UTC)
    From: [identity profile] htpcl.livejournal.com
    I think this warrants a Dailyquote.

    (no subject)

    Date: 2/10/11 21:24 (UTC)
    From: [identity profile] lafinjack.livejournal.com
    And disproof of a conspiracy just means the conspiracy is that much deeper.

    (no subject)

    Date: 1/10/11 21:32 (UTC)
    From: [identity profile] policraticus.livejournal.com
    Election tampering is troubling, but I have a tough time getting worried about something that requires that much Byzantine conspiracy in order to effect such a modest result. Cook County Cemeteries voted overwhelmingly for JFK by in 1960, and their wasn't an electronic vote in sight. Now that was election tampering.

    (no subject)

    Date: 1/10/11 22:23 (UTC)
    From: [identity profile] telemann.livejournal.com
    Urban myth. (http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/history_lesson/2000/10/was_nixon_robbed.html) Some naughty things happened, but not enough documented proof shows any thing would have changed, and if anything, some Chicago precincts gave Nixon more votes than he should have received.


    Three days after the election, GOP party Chairman Sen. Thruston Morton launched bids for recounts and investigations in 11 states—an action that Democratic Sen. Henry Jackson attacked as a "fishing expedition." Eight days later, close Nixon aides, including Bob Finch and Len Hall, sent agents to conduct "field checks" in eight of those states. Peter Flanigan, another aide, encouraged the creation of a Nixon Recount Committee in Chicago. All the while, everyone claimed that Nixon knew nothing of these efforts—an implausible assertion that could only have been designed to help Nixon dodge the dreaded "sore loser" label.


    The Republicans pressed their case doggedly. They succeeded in obtaining recounts, empanelling grand juries, and involving U.S. attorneys and the FBI. Appeals were heard, claims evaluated, evidence weighed. The New York Times considered the charges in a Nov. 26 editorial. (Its bold verdict: "It is now imperative that the results in each state be definitively settled by the time the electoral college meets.")

    The results of it all were meager.

    New Jersey was typical. The GOP obtained court orders for recounts in five counties, but by Dec. 1 the state Republican committee conceded that the recounts had failed to uncover any significant discrepancies, and they halted the process. Kennedy was certified the state's official winner by 22,091 votes. Other states' recount bids and investigations similarly petered out.

    Texas and Illinois, the two largest states under dispute, witnessed the nastiest fights. In Texas, where Kennedy won the 24 electoral votes by a margin of 46,000 ballots, the GOP took to the courts. But its suits were thrown out by a federal judge who claimed he had no jurisdiction. In Illinois, the appeal was pursued more vigorously, maybe because the electoral take was higher (27) and Kennedy's margin slimmer (9,000 votes). Charges focused on Cook County (specifically Chicago) where Kennedy had won by a suspiciously overwhelming 450,000 votes.

    National GOP officials plunged in. Thruston Morton flew to Chicago to confer with Illinois Republican leaders on strategy, while party Treasurer Meade Alcorn announced Nixon would win the state. With Nixon distancing himself from the effort, the Cook County state's attorney, Benjamin Adamowski, stepped forward to lead the challenge. A Daley antagonist and potential rival for the mayoralty, Adamowski had lost his job to a Democrat by 25,000 votes. The closeness of his defeat entitled him to a recount, which began Nov. 29.

    Completed Dec. 9, the recount of 863 precincts showed that the original tally had undercounted Nixon's (and Adamowski's) votes, but only by 943, far from the 4,500 needed to alter the results. In fact, in 40 percent of the rechecked precincts, Nixon's vote was overcounted. Displeased, the Republicans took the case to federal court, only to have a judge dismiss the suits. Still undeterred, they turned to the State Board of Elections, which was composed of four Republicans, including the governor, and one Democrat. Yet the state board, too, unanimously rejected the petition, citing the GOP's failure to provide even a single affidavit on its behalf. The national party finally backed off after Dec. 19, when the nation's Electoral College certified Kennedy as the new president—but even then local Republicans wouldn't accept the Illinois results.

    A recount did wind up changing the winner in one state: Hawaii. On Dec. 28, a circuit court judge ruled that the state—originally called Kennedy's but awarded to Nixon after auditing errors emerged—belonged to Kennedy after all. Nixon's net gain: -3 electoral votes.
    Edited Date: 1/10/11 22:23 (UTC)

    (no subject)

    From: [identity profile] telemann.livejournal.com - Date: 1/10/11 22:25 (UTC) - Expand

    (no subject)

    Date: 2/10/11 01:33 (UTC)
    From: [identity profile] underlankers.livejournal.com
    The most clear-cut case of election fraud in US history was the "election" of Rutherfraud B. Hayes. That was some pretty naked power-dealing and there's really no indication who won that election given the practices of the time. And as far as I know there was almost no electronics in the modern sense of the term in 1877.....

    (no subject)

    From: [identity profile] policraticus.livejournal.com - Date: 2/10/11 02:28 (UTC) - Expand

    (no subject)

    Date: 2/10/11 01:31 (UTC)
    From: [identity profile] underlankers.livejournal.com
    The question is not one of if this could be done or not, because it very much can be. The question is whether or not anyone *has* done this and thus far the evidence has been found wanting and relies on charges from the losing side in elections for real sustenance.

    Nothing to see here ... move along ...

    Date: 2/10/11 02:04 (UTC)
    From: [identity profile] unnamed525.livejournal.com
    The primary point isn't whether or not fraud occurred, but the ease with which it can occur given the slip-shod security of the EVMs.

    Image (http://s848.photobucket.com/albums/ab46/Infradead_bucket/?action=view&current=74538f8c5416347770b07ad7ffb54d13.gif)
    From: [identity profile] stewstewstewdio.livejournal.com
    The primary point isn't whether or not fraud occurred, but the ease with which it can occur given the slip-shod security of the EVMs.

    Thanks for admitting it is a conspiracy theory and a non-issue. Comparing a government function to an open market product that is perennial, fixed and under constant surveillance for profit is just ridiculous.

    (no subject)

    Date: 2/10/11 13:03 (UTC)
    From: [identity profile] eracerhead.livejournal.com
    The solution to the e-voting problem is simple and obvious, yet there seems to be reluctance to implement this fix. It's called an audit trail.

    Essentially, you vote on the machine and it prints out your choices on a ballot (think ATM). The ballot then gets carried back and placed in a ballot box. The ballots aren't used except to randomly audit the machine count with the ballot count. On the rare occasion where the ballot is wrong, an election official is notified and the incident is logged.

    This requires a little more work and expense but is still cheaper than paper voting and will go a long way to assure a fair election.

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