[identity profile] telemann.livejournal.com posting in [community profile] talkpolitics


Looks like Obama care is having an impact on the number of younger Americans who have no health insurance. This group has been hit very hard by the economic downturn, when you'd expect the number for uninsured to INCREASE, not decrease. Despite the caveats in the article below, I'm pretty confident that the explanation why the insured are increasing is directly related to the implementation of "Obama care." Kaiser itself credits the new law for enlarging it's insurance rolls by nearly 600,000). You know, "Obama care" is the thing that every single Republican presidential candidate was screaming at the top of their lungs they would abolish the minute they're sworn in. Let's see them try to explain how they would get the insurance back for these young Americans without the old canards about "gutting Medicare to pay for this" and "TORT REFORM!", or close the prescription donut-hole (especially is a key electoral state like Florida with lots of elderly voters).





Need a reason to believe the Affordable Care Act is starting to work? The Census Bureau just gave you a half million of them. That’s how many young adults had health insurance in 2010, as compared to 2009, according to the official estimates. Or, to put it another way, the proportion of 18- to 24-year olds without health insurance fell, by roughly two percentage points, last year.

It's pretty remarkable, given what was happening in the rest of the population. For every other group of non-elderly adults, from 35 through 64 years of age, the proportion without health insurance increased. (See the graph above.) You expect that sort of data, given economic conditions: When people lose jobs, they also lose access to employer-sponsored insurance. When their incomes fall or their debts rise, they have a harder time keeping up with premiums. But then why aren't 18- to 24-year-olds suffering the same fate? What makes them so special? Nobody can be certain right now. Health insurance estimates are famously quirky and these data frequently mask critical information. But, as noted yesterday, the circumstantial evidence suggests, very strongly, that the Affordable Care Act is the primary factor.


Source.

Oh no!

Date: 14/9/11 18:12 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] sophia-sadek.livejournal.com
Something that Obama did actually worked. Horror! Quick, pull the plug before it has legs. Where is John Galt when we need him most.

(no subject)

Date: 14/9/11 18:14 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] fizzyland.livejournal.com
I'd comment on this post but Rick Perry made me take the HPV vaccination and now I'm 'tarded.

/Jenny McCarthy for VP!
From: [identity profile] montecristo.livejournal.com
Do some reasoning before you crow. Look at which demographic actually increased for "buying" insurance: the very group least statistically likely to need it. So, when you're paying premiums out of pocket, yes, it makes sense for young healthy people to weigh whether they actually need insurance right now. On the other hand, if you're giving away flood insurance to people why should the fact that you don't live in an area statistically prone to flooding deter you from taking the insurance?

Is this really rocket science to you? When you drop the price or subsidize something more people, especially more people from a demographic that has tended to forgo consumption of the particular good or service in question, will demand it. This is economics 101.
Edited Date: 14/9/11 18:25 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] bex.livejournal.com
Least statistically likely to need it for what, exactly? It seems like there could be multiple ways to measure "need" for insurance. While older people have more need for treatment for the diseases of old age and general breaking-down, younger people are more likely to be injured in accidents - car accidents, injuries from playing sports, injuries at work, etc. That 18-24 year age range is a HUGE risk period, especially for young men. In addition, people in this age range are the least likely to have the financial resources to pay out-of-pocket for medical costs, whereas we might hope that middle-aged and older people have higher-income jobs (due to seniority and experience) or have money put away.

EVERYONE needs insurance. If you go by potential years of life/productivity lost, you could argue that young people need it even more.
From: [identity profile] gunslnger.livejournal.com
No one NEEDS insurance. It's an option that some people can choose to get. It's gambling.
From: [identity profile] montecristo.livejournal.com
Setting asside [livejournal.com profile] gunslnger's argument that nobody "needs" insurance, which is a complex philosophical and economic issue in and of itself, it is statistically demonstrable that the demographic in question has a lower probability of needing payout on a health insurance policy.

Setting asside statistics though, as well, the original observation still stands. Wise or not, the demographic in question has been the group most likely to go without health insurance, possibly due to the perception (whose truth or falsity may be debated) that they are less likely to "need" it, or they value it less because of their statistically reduced likelihood of being in the position of receiving a payout.

That being said, it is still a fact of basic economics that when the price of a good or service is reduced that more of that good or service is demanded.
From: [identity profile] a-new-machine.livejournal.com
Sorry, wait, who is giving it away now? Where can I get my free insurance?
From: [identity profile] montecristo.livejournal.com
Yes, you're quite right; it isn't free; someone, somewhere is paying for it. Nevertheless, it is mandated that employers provide it.
From: [identity profile] bord-du-rasoir.livejournal.com
Is that part of the bill in effect now?

I'm aware of the individual mandate. And I believe the individual mandate doesn't take effect until 2014.

How are or how will employers be mandated to provide insurance?
From: [identity profile] surferelf.livejournal.com
They aren't really. If they don't provide insurance they are fined. The fine happens to be way way less than the cost of actually providing insurance.
From: [identity profile] ddstory.livejournal.com
Just one thing I don't understand.

Why so angry?

before you crow
Is this really rocket science to you?

Got something more extreme?
From: [identity profile] montecristo.livejournal.com
It is difficult to tell, with some people, what is genuine ignorance vs. deliberate misrepresentation in the interests of a political agenda.

As for "anger," well, let's not call it that precisely, but a return in kind with respect to the challenging tone of the original post and the sneering dismissal implied by the icon with which the OP chose to adorn it.
From: [identity profile] ddstory.livejournal.com
Lol, you get worked up about an icon? You're new to the internets?
From: [identity profile] enders-shadow.livejournal.com
i guess he missed telemann's overall leftist attitude. the icon is no shocker.
From: [identity profile] ddstory.livejournal.com
Inorite. Someone having a generally leftist attitude is such an offense to humanity!
From: [identity profile] enders-shadow.livejournal.com
psychology101 teaches you that people will be more likely to buy something at a really good price than to take something offered for free.

10 for $1 will get rid of item X quicker than FREE X!

(no subject)

Date: 14/9/11 18:40 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] gunslnger.livejournal.com
I'm not sure that anyone argued that it wouldn't increase the profitscustomer-base of the insurance companies. The problem is that getting people insurance doesn't get them better health-care.

(no subject)

Date: 14/9/11 18:57 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] policraticus.livejournal.com
As a stock holder in several insurance companies, I approve this message.

A stupid question...

Date: 14/9/11 18:59 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] sandwichwarrior.livejournal.com
Why is the number of people insured/uninsured the metric for success?

Why not the price of said insurance or, better yet, healthcare in general?

I also not that the number of uninsured people in every other bracket has actually risen so if the number of people insured/uninsured is your metric for success it's not a very resounding one.

Re: A stupid question...

Date: 14/9/11 19:02 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] enders-shadow.livejournal.com
note the point about this being in time of recession where people are losing their jobs.

if folks lose their jobs, they lose their insurance. that ain't the prez' fault.

Re: A stupid question...

Date: 14/9/11 20:01 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] sandwichwarrior.livejournal.com
Ok but why the number of people insured/uninsured the metric for success?

Re: A stupid question...

Date: 14/9/11 20:04 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] enders-shadow.livejournal.com
oh, i'm not defending the metric. just pointing somethin out.

Re: A stupid question...

Date: 16/9/11 19:11 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] surferelf.livejournal.com
that ain't the prez' fault.
Ah, but that's where you're wrong! You see, stimulus spending makes baby Jesus cry and every tear destroys a job!

Re: A stupid question...

Date: 14/9/11 20:33 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com
I also not that the number of uninsured people in every other bracket has actually risen so if the number of people insured/uninsured is your metric for success it's not a very resounding one.

I know, right? It's like celebrating that those who need it most don't have it, but hey, it's okay - those young folks are pouring money into the broken system!

Re: A stupid question...

Date: 14/9/11 20:37 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] underlankers.livejournal.com
Yes, because we all know that only the old people are entitled to it and young people will pay for the entitlement complexes of Baby Boomers.

Re: A stupid question...

Date: 14/9/11 23:33 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] mikeyxw.livejournal.com
Since insurance costs for the sick are brought down by having more healthy people enrolled, adding a bunch of 18 - 24 year olds who don't consume much health care will certainly subsidize those who consume more.

This was one of the core ideas of Obama's health care and why he wants health care to be mandatory, to make sure healthy people are enrolled to subsidize rates for the sick.

If you look at the rates paid compared with the health care consumed, this graph looks like a transfer of wealth from the 18 - 24 years olds to those who are older and wealthier.

Re: A stupid question...

Date: 15/9/11 03:10 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] notmrgarrison.livejournal.com
and are more likely to vote.

(no subject)

Date: 14/9/11 19:36 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] underlankers.livejournal.com
Reality means nothing to the convinced ideologue. Just like how Republicans having 20 years of the Executive Branch and 20 years of bloating government means they're really pro-government. Ignorance is Strength.

(no subject)

Date: 14/9/11 22:09 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] korean-guy-01.livejournal.com
So the measure for Obamacare is insurance and not actually healthcare. Dumbing down the accomplishments for the Big 0 yet again!!

(no subject)

Date: 15/9/11 00:51 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] bord-du-rasoir.livejournal.com
I thought the law getting go into effect until 2014.

What changed in the federal law from 2009 to 2010 to incentivize an 18-24-year-old to purchase insurance?

(no subject)

Date: 15/9/11 00:52 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] bord-du-rasoir.livejournal.com
Man, I'm tired.

Meant to write: I thought the law didn't go into effect until 2014.

Ah!

Date: 15/9/11 00:56 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] bord-du-rasoir.livejournal.com
Young Adult Coverage until Age 26

"Under the Affordable Care Act, if your plan covers children, you can now add or keep your children on your health insurance policy until they turn 26 years old."

http://www.healthcare.gov/law/provisions/youngadult/index.html

Re: Ah!

Date: 15/9/11 01:02 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] bord-du-rasoir.livejournal.com
If health insurers are not happy with this extension of benefits to 19-to-26-year-old children, what now prevents health insurers from changing their policy agreements with customers so that existing plans stop covering children?

Re: Ah!

Date: 15/9/11 01:45 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] a-new-machine.livejournal.com
The fact that this product would be insanely unpopular for anyone with children.

Re: Ah!

Date: 15/9/11 02:55 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] bord-du-rasoir.livejournal.com
There's no verb in your sentence.

Re: Ah!

Date: 15/9/11 03:00 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] bord-du-rasoir.livejournal.com
Technically, there's a verb; I meant there's no predicate - meaning I don't know what you're saying exactly.

Re: Ah!

Date: 15/9/11 03:04 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] bord-du-rasoir.livejournal.com
I'm sorry; I really shouldn't be typing on such little sleep. Ignore my comments.

(no subject)

Date: 15/9/11 01:24 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] bord-du-rasoir.livejournal.com
The cited article" (http://www.kaiserhealthnews.org/Stories/2011/May/01/young-adult-health-insurance-coverage.aspx) mentions the number of young adults added to the roles of various insurers...

(A correction to your post: Kaiser doesn't credit its own roles as increasing by 600,000 young adults (the number for "Kaiser Permanente" is 90,000); it credits the total of all insurers (as of May 2011) as adding 600,000 young adults.)

...HOWEVER, the article does not mention how these increases in the young adult population compares to prior time periods:
WellPoint, the nation's largest publicly traded health insurer with 34 million customers, said the dependent provision was responsible for adding 280,000 new members. That was about one third its total enrollment growth in the first three months of 2011. Others large insurers said they have added tens of thousands of young adults. Aetna, for example, added fewer than 100,000; Kaiser Permanente, about 90,000; Highmark Inc., about 72,000; Health Care Service Corp., about 82,000; Blue Shield of California, about 22,000, and United Healthcare, about 13,000.
So, Aetna added 90,000. Does that mean that Aetna credits the dependent provision as responsible for adding 90,000 in the same manner that Well Point credits the provision for adding 280,000 to its roles. That point is unclear to me, and it's an absolutely critical point in understanding the impact/effect of the provision.

(no subject)

Date: 15/9/11 01:24 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] bord-du-rasoir.livejournal.com
I deleted the prior two comments b/c of "irrevocable invalid markups."

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