Now I'm not saying that this is what I believe. It's just a thought that I have been mulling over and I kind of want to see if it sticks.
The riots in Egypt have made me consider what would happen if Egypt if the rioters happen to overthrow the government? Assume that Egypt doesn't become Iran part two and actually becomes a democracy with fair and open elections, etc. In the case of a democratic Egypt, there is a high likelihood that the Muslim Brotherhood takes a great deal of control in the country. While probably not as bad as Hamas or Hezbollah, they're not exactly pro-west. Egypt is currently an important power balance to Iran in the Arab world and if Egypt were to scoot over toward the fundies, that counterpoint is weakened or lost. Also important is that Egypt is in some ways the center of the Arab world and also an important bridge between the Arab world and the west.
The other issue is that it may put the peace treaty with Israel at risk. Part of the reason Israel has been able to tone down its military and pull out of Gaza is because of Egyptian support on the other boarder. A hostile Egypt probably means another occupied Gaza.
So is an increased disconnect between the Arab world and the west, the loss of a counterweight to Iran, an occupied Gaza, and an increasingly militarized Israel < Democracy?
http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/106969/20110131/israel-anxiously-watching-events-in-egypt-fears-fall-of-mubarak.htm
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jan/31/israel-egypt-mubarak-peace-treaty-fears
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2045248,00.html
The riots in Egypt have made me consider what would happen if Egypt if the rioters happen to overthrow the government? Assume that Egypt doesn't become Iran part two and actually becomes a democracy with fair and open elections, etc. In the case of a democratic Egypt, there is a high likelihood that the Muslim Brotherhood takes a great deal of control in the country. While probably not as bad as Hamas or Hezbollah, they're not exactly pro-west. Egypt is currently an important power balance to Iran in the Arab world and if Egypt were to scoot over toward the fundies, that counterpoint is weakened or lost. Also important is that Egypt is in some ways the center of the Arab world and also an important bridge between the Arab world and the west.
The other issue is that it may put the peace treaty with Israel at risk. Part of the reason Israel has been able to tone down its military and pull out of Gaza is because of Egyptian support on the other boarder. A hostile Egypt probably means another occupied Gaza.
So is an increased disconnect between the Arab world and the west, the loss of a counterweight to Iran, an occupied Gaza, and an increasingly militarized Israel < Democracy?
http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/106969/20110131/israel-anxiously-watching-events-in-egypt-fears-fall-of-mubarak.htm
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jan/31/israel-egypt-mubarak-peace-treaty-fears
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2045248,00.html
(no subject)
Date: 31/1/11 16:16 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 1/2/11 02:42 (UTC)(no subject)
From:(no subject)
Date: 31/1/11 16:18 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 31/1/11 16:20 (UTC)More seriously, democracy isn't necessarily a better thing. We can envision democracies that display complete disregard for minority right, that remove some of the meager tools to address poverty in Egypt, that vote in a corrupt government that takes steps to suppress further democratic reforms or rolls them back from their nascent state. Or, removing the heavy thumb of the government may increase the amount of corruption and crime, see "democratic" Russia. Now, the more repressive the regime being replaced is, the more likely it is that democracy will bring about an improvement, though.
but I'm a little torn here. History is littered with examples of dictatorships being held up by external forces that were concerned about their own interests, not the interests of those in the country. Be careful of whose interests you're looking out for when you express concern about democratic reforms.
(no subject)
Date: 31/1/11 18:31 (UTC)Reason number 42 why I prefer LJ over FB.
FB is not for real discussion. It's to wish your coworkers and associates happy b-day with a simple post a their 'wall'. It's also agreat way to make yourself look normal and boring for HR departments.
(no subject)
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Date: 1/2/11 11:45 (UTC)A dictatorship isn't inherently good or bad either. They might not be American puppets, but they're usually conducting semi-consistent behaviour. And that reliability makes America job easier.
Best of both worlds is a democracy where the outcome is foregone conclusion and we can depend on the winner. Almost as good as country with only two choices on the ballot.
(no subject)
Date: 31/1/11 16:42 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 31/1/11 16:51 (UTC)Also, why do people continue to use the term "fundies" -- as if the worst and most hateful form of a religion were its truest by definition?
(no subject)
Date: 31/1/11 17:17 (UTC)Serious answer though, there is generally a strong correlation between those who hold ideological purity above other social concerns and those willing to commit violence for their needs because again those social concerns are secondary. It's not necessarily *because* of the religion or what it says, communism doesn't advocate violence either, but communist fundamentalists do the same thing.
Its not personal. :P
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From:Those evil abolitionists:
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Date: 31/1/11 17:47 (UTC)(no subject)
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Date: 31/1/11 17:35 (UTC)Left unchecked, mob rule can be every bit as discomforting as rule by dictatorship, if you find yourself not a member of the 'mob' so to speak.
Democracy is good--unless
Date: 31/1/11 17:58 (UTC)Without a firm commitment to human rights, deriving from natural law, the majority will always persecute an individual who irritates them.
In the USA, the Judicial branch and its use of the Constitution to nullify laws which violate individual rights has saved this country from many--but not all--bad decisions.
Scripture gives an interesting perspective on this:
It can be said that the US Civil War was a judgment against that country for accepting and tolerating the practice of slavery.
We have yet to reap the judgment for the practice of widespread abortion on demand.
Interesting you said that. The guy in my icon did see it as God's judgment:
Date: 31/1/11 18:00 (UTC)Re: Democracy is good--unless
From:A few thoughts.
Date: 31/1/11 18:21 (UTC)Democracy always fails.
Only a Republic can succeed as a form of government where the people rule themselves.
In truth this is more about bad economics than it is about democracy/self rule/dicators.
Re: A few thoughts.
Date: 31/1/11 19:17 (UTC)Re: A few thoughts.
From:Re: A few thoughts.
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From:Surprise! A republic is a form of democracy.
From:Re: A few thoughts.
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Date: 31/1/11 18:40 (UTC)(no subject)
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From:*sigh*
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From:Meh
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Date: 31/1/11 19:15 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 31/1/11 19:36 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 31/1/11 19:26 (UTC)christianity is similar but differant, as the christian pool produces a differant kind of frog, thus making their pool of origin differant. For example only american christians shoot abortion doctors, so it must be the americanness of the pool. if all muslim terror/crime came from one nation, id blame that nation rather than the religion
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Date: 31/1/11 19:34 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 31/1/11 19:44 (UTC)I think they need to fix those structural problems before they even worry about leadership succession.
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Date: 31/1/11 19:44 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 31/1/11 20:18 (UTC)I agree we'd be much better off if we could break that down in order to give us more choice and thereby better able to select between the alternatives, but I think you're talking about a fundamental change in who we are as a people(at least 51% of us as a people) to make that happen.
(no subject)
From:In the end, it doesn't really matter what the US wants.
Date: 31/1/11 20:30 (UTC)Aheheheh.
Date: 31/1/11 21:20 (UTC)OK, I lold.
From:Re: OK, I lold.
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From:(no subject)
Date: 31/1/11 20:52 (UTC)Tourism and its economic effects also ironically enough has played a part in why people in these countries are protesting in such a successful way, with the living standards its given Egypt, there has come insight into other parts of the world and their systems, and a self awareness which if very high.
(no subject)
Date: 31/1/11 23:45 (UTC)(altho to be honest as much as I would like to go to Egypt, I certainly wouldn't want to be there now :D)
(no subject)
From:Anecdata time (again)!
From:(no subject)
Date: 31/1/11 20:54 (UTC)As Tony Robbins put it, what's your outcome? That should always be what's in your mind when you're figuring out what you're going to do. You have to know what you want before you can decide if the path you're taking is good or not.
(no subject)
Date: 1/2/11 00:20 (UTC)We can't expect a system that is perfect, merely one that is good as much as possible and/or better than others.
(no subject)
Date: 1/2/11 01:50 (UTC)(no subject)
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Date: 1/2/11 02:23 (UTC)Egyptions do not know what they want right now. All they know is what they don't want. One of the things they don't want is $1.5billion in US aid. The money only goes to prop up the dictatorship and in return has their government do whatever USA wants.
Right now USA is walking tightrope; on the one hand saying they are pro-populist, pro-democracy, and pro-lollipops, pro-sunshine and pro-puppies. But on the other hand we know they are itching to control the situation and keep a perfect loyal lap dog like Mubarak in power.