Behold the new nation
8/1/11 19:02![[identity profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/openid.png){kind=small}
mahnmut.livejournal.com posting in ![[community profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/community.png){kind=small}
talkpoliticsChances are high that a new African country will be born tomorrow.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12136851
Southern Sudan will vote on independence on Sunday. Very likely they will achieve it; the North can't forge the votes because they don't control the South and in any case the South's government would forge the vote in favor of themselves.
So, some facts about Sudan (some you might've been aware of, others, maybe not).
1.) They've been in a two-decade civil war
2.) Apparenty (I think), the southern part is mostly Christian, and Nilotic (read: black)
3.) Sudan is the location of the Darfur War, another civil war going on in Sudan's West (on the border with Chad)
4.) The country is at the bottom of the human development index, the South is particularly neglected by the Northern authorities
5.) Sudan is considered a "failed state"
6.) The country is in the desert and/or the Sahel (mostly)
7.) It is south of Egypt
8.) The capital is Khartoum
9.) The South is governed by a military regime
10.) The South hates the North because of its militants attacking churches which also leads to retaliation
11.) The North is ruled by a totalitarian dictator charged for genocide and other nasty crimes by the ICC
12.) The North hates the South because it is Christian and will not bow down to Sharia and Islam and the Arab tribes
13.) The South is backed by the US, very nice Uganda and very democratic Ethiopia
14.) The North is backed by the African Union, the Arab States, Russia, China and the Non Aligned movement
15.) Reminding again that they also have another nice rebellious region, known by another civil war, Darfour. It totally doesn't seem they're going to have another war in North/South/West Sudan; not at all.
But fine. Tomorrow they'll have their referendum in the South. Maybe secession is imminent at this point, and is the lesser of two evils (between seceding and not seceding). So what will that change? Basically I hope it will bring peace and stability to the region. And democracy too.
No, who am I fooling...
I know what most of you'll say. Since it's in Africa, chances are it'll be a complete hell hole. Or a miscarriage. Either one is possible. We are talking Africa... Africa-Africa-Africa.
I admit you'll have every reason to believe this. I also tend to think that things will not change to the better, at least not in the foreseeable future. The South will simply become a dictatorship amongst many, and just like the North if not worse. The only upside being, it'll be just another US-supported secular dictatorship that will go on a collision course with the interests of the more radical Near East countries. This time they aren't going to have a civil war, they are going to have a war between two "sovereign" states, a conservative totalitarian Islamic North and what promises to be a conservative secessionist rebel South with dark connections and whose leader reached power through fraudulent elections, and a military pseudo-dictator who "promises" democracy.
On the surface, the primary reason why South Sudan is seceding might look like because of deeply inbred inter-faith hostility between Christians and Muslims, tribal rivalries (the North is Semitic/Arab, the South is Nilotic), as well as countless wars, massacres and instability. That seems as good a reason as any to get the fuck out of dodge, no?
There is a lot of hatred in Africa due to tribes killing tribes for thousands of years. If the border is respected things would slightly improve but it's only a matter of time before an oil or water dispute occurs and tanks cross over the borders. Just to mention that the border will run through Sudan's oil fields. The oil dispute will begin as soon as the South tries to assert authority.
I just hope by some miracle that the new country doesn't join the long list of the corrupt African dictators club. I think they have enough members already.
If anything, South Sudan, if it manages to be independent at all, would be in many respects like Kosovo, in the fact that Sudan will not recognize it, like Serbia is still not recognizing Kosovo, and would send it to the international courts. However, if it becomes like anything remotely resembling a "democracy" (again, highly improbable), in the best case it would probably be done the DPRK-style, with 3 parties grouped in one front. Frankly, I hope South Sudan will go all commie, since we need more commies out in the world to balance out you ebil kapitaliztz. ;-)
But don't forget this is Africa (and not the tourists' Africa), we'll be lucky if we don't have a Rwanda-Burundi tutsi-hutu massacre between North and South. It'll be as "democrartic" as the North, if not less, as the SPLM/A has almost total control over the territory. So realistically, I'm foreseeing a one-party (or one-party dominant) state controlled via fraud and intimidation. And with a democracy as strong as Egypt, where every new leader "coup'ed" his predecessor
Nevertheless, I wish them good luck. I'm looking forward to adding one more flag to my collection on the wall.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12136851
Southern Sudan will vote on independence on Sunday. Very likely they will achieve it; the North can't forge the votes because they don't control the South and in any case the South's government would forge the vote in favor of themselves.
So, some facts about Sudan (some you might've been aware of, others, maybe not).
1.) They've been in a two-decade civil war
2.) Apparenty (I think), the southern part is mostly Christian, and Nilotic (read: black)
3.) Sudan is the location of the Darfur War, another civil war going on in Sudan's West (on the border with Chad)
4.) The country is at the bottom of the human development index, the South is particularly neglected by the Northern authorities
5.) Sudan is considered a "failed state"
6.) The country is in the desert and/or the Sahel (mostly)
7.) It is south of Egypt
8.) The capital is Khartoum
9.) The South is governed by a military regime
10.) The South hates the North because of its militants attacking churches which also leads to retaliation
11.) The North is ruled by a totalitarian dictator charged for genocide and other nasty crimes by the ICC
12.) The North hates the South because it is Christian and will not bow down to Sharia and Islam and the Arab tribes
13.) The South is backed by the US, very nice Uganda and very democratic Ethiopia
14.) The North is backed by the African Union, the Arab States, Russia, China and the Non Aligned movement
15.) Reminding again that they also have another nice rebellious region, known by another civil war, Darfour. It totally doesn't seem they're going to have another war in North/South/West Sudan; not at all.
But fine. Tomorrow they'll have their referendum in the South. Maybe secession is imminent at this point, and is the lesser of two evils (between seceding and not seceding). So what will that change? Basically I hope it will bring peace and stability to the region. And democracy too.
No, who am I fooling...
I know what most of you'll say. Since it's in Africa, chances are it'll be a complete hell hole. Or a miscarriage. Either one is possible. We are talking Africa... Africa-Africa-Africa.
I admit you'll have every reason to believe this. I also tend to think that things will not change to the better, at least not in the foreseeable future. The South will simply become a dictatorship amongst many, and just like the North if not worse. The only upside being, it'll be just another US-supported secular dictatorship that will go on a collision course with the interests of the more radical Near East countries. This time they aren't going to have a civil war, they are going to have a war between two "sovereign" states, a conservative totalitarian Islamic North and what promises to be a conservative secessionist rebel South with dark connections and whose leader reached power through fraudulent elections, and a military pseudo-dictator who "promises" democracy.
On the surface, the primary reason why South Sudan is seceding might look like because of deeply inbred inter-faith hostility between Christians and Muslims, tribal rivalries (the North is Semitic/Arab, the South is Nilotic), as well as countless wars, massacres and instability. That seems as good a reason as any to get the fuck out of dodge, no?
There is a lot of hatred in Africa due to tribes killing tribes for thousands of years. If the border is respected things would slightly improve but it's only a matter of time before an oil or water dispute occurs and tanks cross over the borders. Just to mention that the border will run through Sudan's oil fields. The oil dispute will begin as soon as the South tries to assert authority.
I just hope by some miracle that the new country doesn't join the long list of the corrupt African dictators club. I think they have enough members already.
If anything, South Sudan, if it manages to be independent at all, would be in many respects like Kosovo, in the fact that Sudan will not recognize it, like Serbia is still not recognizing Kosovo, and would send it to the international courts. However, if it becomes like anything remotely resembling a "democracy" (again, highly improbable), in the best case it would probably be done the DPRK-style, with 3 parties grouped in one front. Frankly, I hope South Sudan will go all commie, since we need more commies out in the world to balance out you ebil kapitaliztz. ;-)
But don't forget this is Africa (and not the tourists' Africa), we'll be lucky if we don't have a Rwanda-Burundi tutsi-hutu massacre between North and South. It'll be as "democrartic" as the North, if not less, as the SPLM/A has almost total control over the territory. So realistically, I'm foreseeing a one-party (or one-party dominant) state controlled via fraud and intimidation. And with a democracy as strong as Egypt, where every new leader "coup'ed" his predecessor
Nevertheless, I wish them good luck. I'm looking forward to adding one more flag to my collection on the wall.
(no subject)
Date: 8/1/11 17:08 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 8/1/11 17:06 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 8/1/11 17:09 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 8/1/11 17:15 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 8/1/11 17:20 (UTC)Nice Christian democracy, huh? Is your lol-o-meter completely broken?
(no subject)
Date: 8/1/11 17:22 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 8/1/11 17:28 (UTC)Do you notice a pattern here?
Really, I wish it were just so simple as our friend
(no subject)
Date: 8/1/11 17:30 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 8/1/11 18:08 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 8/1/11 17:15 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 8/1/11 18:07 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 8/1/11 22:30 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 9/1/11 07:32 (UTC)Not that that will stop all the conflicts and wars between African nations etcetc, but I think it tend to lead to a lot less internal strife within political units.
Not that I think there is any real chance of that happening as such, but I do think that opposition to regional autonomy within nations states is working in exactly the opposite direction it should be.
(no subject)
Date: 9/1/11 13:15 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 10/1/11 06:13 (UTC)