[identity profile] htpcl.livejournal.com posting in [community profile] talkpolitics
Greetings, O, adored Americacentric exceptionalists curious minds so open to the world! I'm going to bother you with a subject that tends to be neglected lately - mostly because the cluster bombs and presumably invisible stealth B2's have stopped flying over Kosovo for a long time, CNN has resorted to lame Twitter-madness, Clinton is not in the Oval office (heh he heh), and after all, why should we care about a remote tiny country located at the ass of some obscure continent that doesn't even generate US-bound terrorism, therefore is irrelevant?

I'm talking of Serbia. Last week Serbia was put in front of a very delicate choice, and in the tricky position to have to balance between its foreign policy priorities. In result, Serbia decided to side which China on the Nobel peace prize issue and they initially refused to send their representative to the Nobel ceremony in Oslo, where the Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo was about to be awarded the Peace prize in absentia, for his long fight for human rights in China. Liu is currently serving a 11-year sentence in China for "subversive activity" because he joined some other Chinese dissidents in 2008 who crafted the charter of human and political rights in China.

Predictably, China harshly condemned the choice of a Nobel laureate. (As if the Nobel peace prize matters anyway? Just look who took it last year! And for what?) China also did their best to thwart the ceremony by using their economic influence to pressure a number of countries to boycott the event (and succeeded, thus proving that their influence has increased vastly). The Chinese authorities even decided to stage their own "Confucian peace prize" which would reflect their understanding of a contribution for world peace.

Serbia was one of the countries who sided with China, along with Russia, Afghanistan, Iraq, Cuba, Venezuela, etc. The Serbian government explained this decision by saying that they do care about human rights, but meanwhile they also regard their relations with China very important. "Serbia gives a large importance to its bilateral relations with China. All our decisions are related to defending our national interests. China is a vital partner of Serbia", the Serbian foreign minister Vuk Jeremic said.

Not so long ago, Belgrade declared EU, Russia, US and China to be the four main "pillars" of their foreign policy. Balancing between the strategic partnerships with these four has never been a trickier job than it is at the moment.

Immediately after the decision, criticism mounted both from within and from outside Serbia. The EU-relations supervisor Jeljko Kacin experssed his bewilderment with Belgrade's decision and he condemned the servility of his country. (Of course he preferred to talk about China while completely forgetting to mention the pressure from the EU and US). The chairman of the South-East European Delegation at the EU parliament, Edward Kukan also said Serbia's boycott would have a negative effect, and reminded that human rights are a top priority for EU, and boycotting the ceremony would be interpreted as a sign that Serbia is not "serious enough" about the fight for human rights around the world.

The European Commission expressed "concern" and reminded that all 27 member states have taken a unified position and would all honor the ceremony. In Serbia itself, the government's decision has brought lots of criticism from a number of NGOs and opposition parties who insisted that the government should reconsider its position.

At the end of the day, Belgrade decided to make a complete U-turn and send its ombudsman Sasa Jankovic to represent the PM. This way they put an end to the raging discussion about the soundness of its previous decision, and explained that they were sending Jankovic in order to "answer the expectations of a large circle of the Serbian society".

But when we look beyond the nicey-nicey diplomatically sounding phrases, we could ask the question what REALLY urged Serbia to take China's side on this issue in the first place? Apparently, Belgrade is trying to demonstrate that it supports one of their biggest allies on the Kosovo issue. Let's not forget that China is a permanent member of the UN Security Council, they have a veto power, and the issue of Kosovo's independence has been put to discussion there many times. Let me remind also that China is one of Serbia's biggest trade partners, and the Serbian government relies heavily on Chinese investments, especially in vital sectors like infrastructure and energy.

Serbia knows that as long as it has the support of China and Russia, Kosovo will never become a UN member, and its access to other international bodies would continue to be blocked. The government has stated more than once that they shouldn't be put in a situation where they'll have to make concessions in "return" for Kosovo.

One of these exchange coins could be the country's European integration. The EU has actually never put the question about Kosovo's independence as a condition for Serbia's integration - at least not officially (and remember that Serbia has recently issued its official application for EU membership). If we're to trust WikiLeaks (that demon Assange!), the State Department documents regarding EU-Serbia hint that there's quite a disagreement within the Union on this issue. According to the leaks, some top French officials have insisted to their US and EU colleagues that it should be made clear to Serbia that they have to recognize Kosovo if they ever want to be let into EU.

Still, Serbia has softened its position somewhat in the recent months. In September they introduced a resolution on Kosovo, which would open their way to EU negotiations. But the talks will have to wait until a new stable government is formed in Pristina (the parliamentary elections were held this last Sunday). The main negotiation points and participants are yet to be specified. Kosovo claims it'll be only discussing subjects related to the everyday needs of its people, while Serbia hints that they could include Kosovo's status as well.

Whether Belgrade would maintain this fragile balance in its foreign relations, and whether it'll choose pursuing a sovereign policy rather than harmonizing it to the EU one, and what will happen to Kosovo in the EU context is yet to be seen. But the Nobel prize event shows that Serbia will increasingly have to make hard choices between the four "pillars" of its diplomacy, and would have to choose one ahead of the rest, if it ever wants better stability. Because, as our local proverb here across the Serbian-Bulgarian border says, "Try to keep two watermelons under one arm, and you'll find them both on the ground" (literal translation). But let's be realistic - at this point, EU has no viable alternative from a Serbian perspective.

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Date: 14/12/10 15:50 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] peamasii.livejournal.com
If only the Kosovo separatists were treated with the same international kindness and respect as Palestinian separatists are in Israel... Serbia should no longer have any problem acceding to the EU!

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Date: 14/12/10 15:52 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] mahnmut.livejournal.com
I've been asked the question: why would EU want an independent Kosovo?

Official version: because they care about the civil rights of the Kosovars.

Unofficial: because they need a muddy hub where the rule of law exists only on paper, for distributing the Afghani poppy into Europe and a safe haven where they could launder the money from its production. Other questions?

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Date: 14/12/10 15:56 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] underlankers.livejournal.com
Nah, it's more about pissing off the Russian Bear than anything else. The problem is that if Kosovo can secede from Serbia, the Serb-majority areas of Kosovo can secede from Kosovo. And then Russia retaliated by bringing up South Ossetia again.....

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Date: 14/12/10 16:54 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] mahnmut.livejournal.com
Yeah it's totally about pissing.

And, as Wes Clark pointed out...

Date: 15/12/10 00:31 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] sophia-sadek.livejournal.com
... the region of Kosovo with a Serb majority is the region with the greatest mineral resources.

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Date: 14/12/10 16:53 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] meus-ovatio.livejournal.com
Nobody ever asked you that question.

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Date: 14/12/10 16:58 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] mahnmut.livejournal.com
Actually they did, at least twice as far as I remember. The first was a colleague after having read this post of mine (http://community.livejournal.com/talk_politics/43527.html) (which of course you didn't read), and the more recent one a friend of mine with who I often argue about these things, and that was just a week ago btw. Any other questions?

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Date: 14/12/10 15:55 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] underlankers.livejournal.com
The Nobel Peace Prize meant nothing after it was awarded to Henry Kissinger in the 1970s. However I think it's an important point to note an early difference between PRC and US power projection, the USA uses military force regardless of whether or not that would even be sensible where the Chinese use economic muscle. The Chinese model appears to work quite a bit better.

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Date: 14/12/10 16:58 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] malasadas.livejournal.com
More practical question on the Peace Prize --

All the other prize fields usually wait until long after the discovery, work or theory that won the prize to actually get the award. That ensures that there is real time to evaluate the impact of the work that eventually wins the prize. Hell, even Watson and Crick waited 9 years after they "discovered" the double helix.

Why does the Peace Prize seem so caught up in the moment? The committee seems interested in drawing attention to contemporary issues rather than awarding proven successful acheivements in peace.

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Date: 14/12/10 17:05 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] underlankers.livejournal.com
No, it meant nothing period. If winning a "Peace" prize is granted for how Kissinger presided over the genocides and collapse of the RVN then it's fair to say that we could award it more deservedly to Brangelina.

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Date: 15/12/10 01:02 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] anfalicious.livejournal.com
Look at the list of countries that oppose. It seems the Afghan/Iraq wars are going to have been money well spent in terms of power projection...

I think this is what China has figured out that the US is oblivious to. The best way to get people to do what you want is not with guns.

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Date: 14/12/10 16:14 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] dv8nation.livejournal.com
Given their human rights record siding with China is a tricky game to play. Deep pockets or not, I'd think that a developing country would be wise to be careful on how closely they tie themselves to China.

Remember, kids, the benevolent American hegemony will always be there for you!

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Date: 14/12/10 17:12 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] peamasii.livejournal.com
What about the human rights record of Kosovo (KLA, Kosovo Liberation Army)? Are they so much better than the Serbs?

Yes, I know they loved Clinton and his USA.

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Date: 14/12/10 20:09 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] torpidai.livejournal.com
Given their human rights record siding with China is a tricky game to play. Deep pockets or not,

An American speeks of "Human rights", I'd suggest that is somewhat laughable! or is it another America that claims to have abolished slavery, yet 25% of it's kitchen appliances are made by prisoners (and a greater %age of army equipment/clothing), locks up 25% of the worlds prison population and still brings in a "Three strikes and you get life" rule for even the most petty of crimes? gotta keep up the workforce I guess.

Americans should be the last ones talking of human rights abuses!

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Date: 14/12/10 16:53 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] malasadas.livejournal.com
I have an uneasy feeling that within the next 20 years, international relations across the entire Globe are going to be looking at lot like Europe in 1910...

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Date: 14/12/10 16:56 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] dv8nation.livejournal.com
Austria-Hungary has been due for a comeback...

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Date: 14/12/10 17:32 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] meus-ovatio.livejournal.com
What's a Serbia?

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Date: 14/12/10 17:53 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] devil-ad-vocate.livejournal.com
Balkan rednecks.

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Date: 14/12/10 17:59 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] dv8nation.livejournal.com
Those little things on the end of shoelaces.

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Date: 14/12/10 19:02 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] ninboydean.livejournal.com
There was no Serbian ethnic cleansing of the Kosovars until the US started trying to 'clientize' Kosovo.

Divide & conquer, y'know.

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Date: 14/12/10 19:15 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] underlankers.livejournal.com
Eh, that kind of divide and conquer didn't begin in the 1990s. There's a reason the Serbs used the term "Ustase" to refer to their opponents.....

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Fascinating flags

Date: 15/12/10 01:02 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] sophia-sadek.livejournal.com
It's interesting that the Kosovo separatist flag is pretty much the flag of Albania (a black double-headed Roman eagle on a red background):

Image

The current flag of Kosovo is simply an outline of the region with stars (gold and white on a blue background):

Image

The current Serbian flag has a Roman royalist emblem on top of a republican style striped flag (a vertical reflection of the Russian flag):

Image

What is the Bulgarian opinion of flag formats and colors?

Re: Fascinating flags

From: [identity profile] sophia-sadek.livejournal.com - Date: 15/12/10 15:12 (UTC) - Expand

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