Syria without Assad

[fridi]

You'd wonder what facilitated this sudden turn of events in Syria. In case you haven't heard, the Islamist rebels overtook the country within less than a week and overthrew the Assad regime which had held its grip on the country for half a century. Assad has now fled to Moscow, to live his days under the protection of his buddy Putin. Russia's military bases are under threat, Iran has lost its most powerful proxy, Turkey is about to get rid of the millions of Syrian refugees, and the whole region is now wondering if there'll finally be peace in Syria or the whole thing will be plunged into unimaginable chaos.

But returning to my question: what made Assad fall so fast? The resistance Against his regime has spread throughout the country for year, and that is one of the explanations for its abrupt end. We shouldn't also omit the waning international support to Assad from Russia and Iran, and that alongside the Islamist rebel offensive, the Kurds in Eastern Syria and the Druze in the south of the country have also become more active. They sent a signal to Damascus - all of Syria was now united against the regime, and that was a change of dynamics that Assad couldn't handle, despite all support from both Russia and Iran.

Now you'd wonder what follows in Syria from now on. First, let's emphasize on the apparent desire of the Syrians for a transition that could hopefully be carried out peacefully - without acts of revenge and bloodshed. Second, let's mention the fact that a huge variety of groups and organizations participated in the overthrow of the regime, and many of them can now theoretically have claims to power. There are some chances of achieving unity, granted; the strongest positions are held by the leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group, Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, who has already started using his civil name Ahmed al-Sharaa.

After 54 years of dictatorship, much work remains to be done. Syria is home to a diverse mix of nationalities, ethnicities and religions. So is there a threat of further conflict? Well naturally there are a number of brewing conflicts - in the context of the long history of oppression and favoritism of certain groups in Syrian history. It is also clear that some have participated in the crimes of the regime and will now try to avoid facing justice. There is a lot of work ahead - after 54 years of a very stringent dictatorship, things cannot be turned around with a magic wand.

The road will be steep, but the courage shown is what matters. Syrians have great hopes, but their feelings are mixed - I don't know anyone from Syria who doesn't feel fear, but at the same time, people are filled with extremely great hope.

The Syrian population has experienced much suffering in recent years: persecution, repression, torture and, above all, the disappearance of family members. Over 100,000 people in Syria have disappeared without a trace, without their families knowing where they are, and now relatives hope to see them again, they hope they will return.

The fight against Assad has been going on for years. Many of the opposition are in exile. So can they now be brought in to form a new government? Well, they didn't lose their contacts in Syria to begin with - it was just that communication became increasingly difficult, as those remaining in the country under the Assad regime were under surveillance and, accordingly, free communication was impossible.

But even those who have long been outside the country have maintained their close ties with Syria and will now be included and engaged in rebuilding the country with all their experience they've gained over the years and with their political views, some of which they have developed jointly.

What about the positions of the neighboring countries? What reaction can be expected from Syria's most influential neighbors - Iraq, Turkey, Israel? First, Israel has reacted cautiously and reinforced its units on the Golan Heights, which form the border with Syria. In Turkey, Erdogan has already expressed hope that most of Syrian refugees - and there are about three million of them in Turkey - will return to their homeland. It is also clear that he is very skeptical about the possible establishment of Kurdish autonomy and the prospects for a federal state.

Iraq initially announced that it wanted to continue supporting Assad - in this regard, relations will need a fresh start. And Lebanon must also be taken into account - many Lebanese left their country during the fighting with Israel and fled to Syria. Now the returns are in both directions. Politically, Lebanon is currently very weak and in deep crisis. But the fate of the two countries has always been closely linked. If clashes between different religious groups occur in Syria, this will be of particular importance for Lebanon too.

The elephant in the room is of course Trump and the uncertainty about his stance on all this, once he takes power.

Comments

[oportet]

The US and Israel both conducted airstrikes in Syria last night - could be a coincidence, or it could just be that time, regime change time! - in which case we'll be assured these rebels are lifelong friends of ours.