Europe's gas alternatives
16/5/22 22:30![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
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talkpoliticsThis was to be expected. Russia would first hit the most vulnerable spots:
Ukraine war: Russia halts gas exports to Poland and Bulgaria
Question is, now what. The big concern is, if Moscow keeps insisting that all payments for gas supplies should be in rubles, other countries will soon follow the fate of Poland and Bulgaria and stop getting Russian gas. The EU has already discussed the extent to which energy companies' attempts to maneuver in payment are a violation of sanctions, some plans were drawn, etc. For context, these are payments to Gazprombank in euros, which according to Russia's demands are to be automatically transferred to an account in rubles.
If the confrontation with Russia intensifies, the risk of a major gas crisis is very real. So how are individual countries prepared for this outcome, and what would their plan be?
Italy
Italy is rapidly reducing its Russian gas imports: 11.4 billion m3 of Russian gas have arrived there last year, making Italy the 2nd largest consumer of Russian gas in the EU. In the middle of next year however, this will stop - the intention is to halve supplies in the coming months. To this end, new agreements have been signed with Angola, Congo and Algeria. Italy is connected to the Trans-Mediterranean gas pipeline and can receive gas directly from North Africa. They're also negotiating with Qatar, Mozambique and Azerbaijan.
Furthermore, the Italian government intends to begin saving energy drastically. "Do we want peace or air conditioners?", PM Draghi was cited asking. The government has decided that the cooling of schools and public buildings in the summer will be up to 25 degrees, and the heating next winter, up to 19. This will save up to 4 bn m3 of gas per year.
Greece
Greece is seen as the future main distributor of natural gas for the Balkans. Initially, the plans called for limiting dependence on Turkey, but are now targeting Russian supplies. The necessary infrastructure is provided by the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline, the still unfinished interconnector with Bulgaria and the new branch to North Macedonia.
Even before the outbreak of war, the government in Athens decided to expand and modernize the liquefied gas terminal on the island of Revitusa. Other ports near Corinth and Alexandroupolis will also receive and store liquefied natural gas.
Greece meets about 30% of its energy needs with Russian gas, but this year 2/3 of Russian gas will be replaced by other suppliers, such as Azerbaijan. In the mid term Greece also plans to explore its own deposits to ensure its independence.
Greece was the first to promise help to Bulgaria. Deliveries can be made from the liquefied gas terminals, and the direction of "Turkish Stream" can be reversed. The connection between Bulgaria and Greece, which has been under construction for 11 years, should be ready by June. The Greek government expects Gazprom to suspend supplies to the country in late May if payments are not made in rubles, as Moscow demands. The authorities in Athens have assured that they are prepared for this scenario.
Poland
Like Bulgaria, Poland will also be aided by its neighbors. The energy ministers have already discussed possible solutions. Over the next few months, Poland can be supplied with gas through the almost completed pipeline from Lithuania, and if necessary, it can also receive gas from Germany. This would mean that Russian gas will continue to flow into Polish pipelines in a bypass way.
Gas storage facilities in Poland are 3/4 full, and the government has confidently said that full independence from Russian gas will be achieved by the end of this month. PM Morawiecki has emphasized the importance of the Baltic gas pipeline, which is currently under construction and will establish a link with Norway, where much of the future supply is expected to come from.
Poland has long been preparing to cut supplies from Russia. In recent years, energy independence has been largely a political project - relations between the right-wing populist government in Warsaw and Moscow were severely strained before the war, and Polish rulers have always feared Russian energy blackmail attempts. Now their fears have been justified.
As for the others
Hungary is almost completely dependent on Russian gas and oil and has so far refused to change that. So far, Budapest has not supported the EU's energy sanctions. The reason is the closeness of PM Orban with Putin.
France receives only 20% of its gas from Russia and is therefore little affected. However, there is no gas connection with Spain, from where Algerian or liquefied gas could be supplied.
Lithuania is the best in Europe in this regard. It was the first EU country to completely suspend Russian gas imports since the start of the war. Since then, a liquefied natural gas terminal near the city of Klaipeda has supplied the country, for example from Norway. The terminal's capacity is significantly higher than consumption, which is why Lithuania can also supply its neighbors with natural gas.
Despite having being warned for years by the EU and the US, Germany remains the largest importer of Russian gas and has come under enormous pressure since the start of the war. Most recently, Economy Minister Robert Habeck has said that giving up Russian gas would not be possible before 2024. Germany does not even have a liquefied gas supply terminal. As for oil imports, the federal government has changed its position and may agree to impose an embargo.
Ukraine war: Russia halts gas exports to Poland and Bulgaria
Question is, now what. The big concern is, if Moscow keeps insisting that all payments for gas supplies should be in rubles, other countries will soon follow the fate of Poland and Bulgaria and stop getting Russian gas. The EU has already discussed the extent to which energy companies' attempts to maneuver in payment are a violation of sanctions, some plans were drawn, etc. For context, these are payments to Gazprombank in euros, which according to Russia's demands are to be automatically transferred to an account in rubles.
If the confrontation with Russia intensifies, the risk of a major gas crisis is very real. So how are individual countries prepared for this outcome, and what would their plan be?
Italy
Italy is rapidly reducing its Russian gas imports: 11.4 billion m3 of Russian gas have arrived there last year, making Italy the 2nd largest consumer of Russian gas in the EU. In the middle of next year however, this will stop - the intention is to halve supplies in the coming months. To this end, new agreements have been signed with Angola, Congo and Algeria. Italy is connected to the Trans-Mediterranean gas pipeline and can receive gas directly from North Africa. They're also negotiating with Qatar, Mozambique and Azerbaijan.
Furthermore, the Italian government intends to begin saving energy drastically. "Do we want peace or air conditioners?", PM Draghi was cited asking. The government has decided that the cooling of schools and public buildings in the summer will be up to 25 degrees, and the heating next winter, up to 19. This will save up to 4 bn m3 of gas per year.
Greece
Greece is seen as the future main distributor of natural gas for the Balkans. Initially, the plans called for limiting dependence on Turkey, but are now targeting Russian supplies. The necessary infrastructure is provided by the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline, the still unfinished interconnector with Bulgaria and the new branch to North Macedonia.
Even before the outbreak of war, the government in Athens decided to expand and modernize the liquefied gas terminal on the island of Revitusa. Other ports near Corinth and Alexandroupolis will also receive and store liquefied natural gas.
Greece meets about 30% of its energy needs with Russian gas, but this year 2/3 of Russian gas will be replaced by other suppliers, such as Azerbaijan. In the mid term Greece also plans to explore its own deposits to ensure its independence.
Greece was the first to promise help to Bulgaria. Deliveries can be made from the liquefied gas terminals, and the direction of "Turkish Stream" can be reversed. The connection between Bulgaria and Greece, which has been under construction for 11 years, should be ready by June. The Greek government expects Gazprom to suspend supplies to the country in late May if payments are not made in rubles, as Moscow demands. The authorities in Athens have assured that they are prepared for this scenario.
Poland
Like Bulgaria, Poland will also be aided by its neighbors. The energy ministers have already discussed possible solutions. Over the next few months, Poland can be supplied with gas through the almost completed pipeline from Lithuania, and if necessary, it can also receive gas from Germany. This would mean that Russian gas will continue to flow into Polish pipelines in a bypass way.
Gas storage facilities in Poland are 3/4 full, and the government has confidently said that full independence from Russian gas will be achieved by the end of this month. PM Morawiecki has emphasized the importance of the Baltic gas pipeline, which is currently under construction and will establish a link with Norway, where much of the future supply is expected to come from.
Poland has long been preparing to cut supplies from Russia. In recent years, energy independence has been largely a political project - relations between the right-wing populist government in Warsaw and Moscow were severely strained before the war, and Polish rulers have always feared Russian energy blackmail attempts. Now their fears have been justified.
As for the others
Hungary is almost completely dependent on Russian gas and oil and has so far refused to change that. So far, Budapest has not supported the EU's energy sanctions. The reason is the closeness of PM Orban with Putin.
France receives only 20% of its gas from Russia and is therefore little affected. However, there is no gas connection with Spain, from where Algerian or liquefied gas could be supplied.
Lithuania is the best in Europe in this regard. It was the first EU country to completely suspend Russian gas imports since the start of the war. Since then, a liquefied natural gas terminal near the city of Klaipeda has supplied the country, for example from Norway. The terminal's capacity is significantly higher than consumption, which is why Lithuania can also supply its neighbors with natural gas.
Despite having being warned for years by the EU and the US, Germany remains the largest importer of Russian gas and has come under enormous pressure since the start of the war. Most recently, Economy Minister Robert Habeck has said that giving up Russian gas would not be possible before 2024. Germany does not even have a liquefied gas supply terminal. As for oil imports, the federal government has changed its position and may agree to impose an embargo.
(no subject)
Date: 17/5/22 19:33 (UTC)1. Europe gets dependent on Russian energy resources and makes deals with Russia, aiming to become friends
2. This isn't in America's best interests, so America encourages NATO to promise Ukraine membership
3. Ukraine says they want NATO membership, Russia feels threatened and attacks
4. Europe is angry at Russia and stops being friends with them
5. Russia stops giving energy resources to Europe
6. Europe is forced to look for alternatives, America conveniently providing one
7. Europe is no longer friends with Russia, and is getting dependent on American energy resources
8. PROFIT!?!??1
(no subject)
Date: 19/5/22 06:23 (UTC)But item 2 requires a lot of clever planning on the part of the US energy sector. Which is definitely stretching credulity. :D
(no subject)
Date: 19/5/22 19:30 (UTC)Oh wait...