On-topic: Using refugees as a cynical tool

[fridi]

We've come to a point that even warning shots can be heard on the Polish-Belarusian border. That's hardly a surprise, given the fact that young soldiers patrol that line who've sworn to guard their homeland at all costs. However, these occasional shots on the border between two bristling states can very quickly ignite a real firestorm. This conflict has brought both Europe's weaknesses on display and the cynical thirst for political supremacy not only of Russia and Belarus on one side, but also Poland, a EU member.

In 2015, a wave of refugees exposed the rifts in Europe, and since then, the refugee policy in Brussels has been Europe's most poisonous potion. Various disputes over migration, the right to political asylum and common European legislation on these issues have brought things to a point that the debate has become even more heated than money, climate change and everything else that has been opening up divisive trenches between the EU member states for ages. I've lost track of how many attempts to create common rules have already failed. These are all tricky questions, like: who has the right to enter the EU? Who should be enjoying protection as a political immigrant? Who is granted temporary asylum? Which countries should accept refugees and in what numbers, what social benefits are they entitled to? The quarrels over all this keep going on and on.

We had a post the other day asking which the most contentious political topic was. For Europe, right now, I'd say it's migration. As soon as the refugee topic gets on the agenda, politicians put on their ideological dark glasses and nationalism takes the lead. And let no one try hiding behind Brussels, please, because the political failure we are seeing at the moment has come only as a result of the malice of the EU member states, especially two of them which have stubbornly blocked both any chance for compromise solutions and any attempts for a sep forward: Hungary and Poland.

With this in mind, the current requests from Warsaw for European aid are clearly short of being a request for money to build a wall on the border with Belarus. Refugees trapped at this border cannot be accepted and distributed among EU countries - and this is precisely Poland's fault. Poland has so many times refused to show solidarity with others that now it simply has no right to expect help from its neighbors.

But there's more. Remember who first came up with the idea of using refugees as a kind of cannon fodder in a kind of hybrid war against Europe? Was the ruler in the Kremlin first or was it his minion in Minsk? The insidious meanness of this idea seems to suit Vladimir Putin better than the increasingly clumsy and brutal master of Belarus. I can also picture the thin smile of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov which never leaves his face as he's always so eager to remind us all that the EU could redeem itself and stop the influx of refugees along the Belarusian-Polish border in the same way it did through the deal with Turkey. The experienced political player Lavrov is well aware of the weaknesses of Russia's ideological opponents.

As for Lukashenko, he currently has a first-class instrument of extortion. And of course he doesn't give a damn about all those accusations that he has treated the refugees inhumanely and traded people mafia-style. Like he has ever cared for the value of human life. In any case, he's now just a vassal of Moscow, whose image can get no worse, so he doesn't care. The sanctions from Brussels have done him no har so far, but the situation could change quickly if the EU imposes a real export ban on Belarus. Which of course is unlikely to happen because Europeans at least nominally care about the well-being of the people of Belarus, as well as, more importantly, the profits of their own companies which have interests there.

In turn, Poland now wants to convince us that its very national security is under threat. The president even talked to NATO - as if Genghis Khan's Mongol hordes had almost rushed into his country. In Warsaw, noise is being raised to the sky, but this is mostly internal propaganda. So far, only a few thousand refugees have been deceived by the insidious scheme of the Belarusian authorities - these fozen wretches of people who've got nothing but the clothes on their backs are hardly the apocalyptic threat looming like Armageddon over Poland, a country of 38 million. I'm sure you'd agree such a claim sounds more than absurd.

However, border tensions come as a gift from God to the government of Law and Justice in Warsaw. Recently, Kaczynski's government and party have been steadily losing support because many Poles have turned their backs on them - because of strict measures against abortion, because of hostility to the EU and because of the dismantling of the rule of law. To stop this collapse, Jaroslav Kaczynski, the party leader and deputy prime minister, has unleashed a gargantuan wave of xenophobia and nationalism that puts the opposition in a very difficult position. Quite in the style of the old political wisdom that a good crisis should not be left unused. Classic realpolitik here!

The short stick in this cynical game has repeatedly been pulled by human beings who've wandered in the cold and darkness through the forests and swamps along the Belarusian-Polish border. The government in Warsaw does not even allow auxiliary organizations to take care of these people. This contradicts the international conventions, but the Polish rulers don't seem to care, because their image can get no worse than it already is, so they've got nothing to lose.

For its part, the EU must immediately emerge from its blindness and end its oaths of solidarity with Poland. The European Union has a duty to put pressure on Warsaw to find an immediate humanitarian solution for the people at the border - perhaps with the help of international organizations. The rest is a matter of negotiations with the countries from which the refugees come and also the transit countries such as Russia and Belarus. And we have to hurry a lot, because winter is coming, and with it grows the danger of seeing corpses near the border soon.