A game of demographics
28/7/20 22:47![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
kiaa posting in ![[community profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/community.png){kind=small}
talkpoliticsWho's behind Trump's big polling deficit? Two key groups defecting to Biden
"...a closer look at the cross-tabs of recent surveys yields some surprising findings: Trump is actually performing a bit better with nonwhites than he did against Hillary Clinton in 2016. And the group fueling Biden's polling surge is seniors and white voters with college degrees."
As interesting as all of this might be, there's a critical reminder to make. The only day that a poll matters is election day. So to our US brethren I have this to say. Make sure you register, make sure at least three of your friends are registered, and make sure that all four of you vote.
That said, sure. The shift in 65+ year olds is especially critical because they are the demographic which has, historically, been one of the most likely to vote and they are simultaneously one of the groups most likely to die from Covid-19. And while the slight improvement in Trump's performance amongst African Americans and Hispanics is interesting, I expect that those numbers will likely shift back a bit assuming that Biden selects a non-white female VP.
Many people are saying that the 20 point swing in the 65+ age demographic is pretty much the only reason that Donald Trump is now wearing a mask (sometimes) and telling the public that it is a sign of patriotism to wear a mask. Cynical, I know. But then again, it's the Don that we're talking about here.
"...a closer look at the cross-tabs of recent surveys yields some surprising findings: Trump is actually performing a bit better with nonwhites than he did against Hillary Clinton in 2016. And the group fueling Biden's polling surge is seniors and white voters with college degrees."
As interesting as all of this might be, there's a critical reminder to make. The only day that a poll matters is election day. So to our US brethren I have this to say. Make sure you register, make sure at least three of your friends are registered, and make sure that all four of you vote.
That said, sure. The shift in 65+ year olds is especially critical because they are the demographic which has, historically, been one of the most likely to vote and they are simultaneously one of the groups most likely to die from Covid-19. And while the slight improvement in Trump's performance amongst African Americans and Hispanics is interesting, I expect that those numbers will likely shift back a bit assuming that Biden selects a non-white female VP.
Many people are saying that the 20 point swing in the 65+ age demographic is pretty much the only reason that Donald Trump is now wearing a mask (sometimes) and telling the public that it is a sign of patriotism to wear a mask. Cynical, I know. But then again, it's the Don that we're talking about here.
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Date: 29/7/20 08:35 (UTC)