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talkpolitics"President Donald Trump experienced a 7-point swing in support from likely voters over the last week, according to the latest Rasmussen tracking poll released Wednesday.
Trump now trails former Vice President Joe Biden in the race for president by 3 percentage points among likely U.S. voters, according to the survey. Biden leads Trump 47-44 percent, marking a significant decline from his 10-point lead a week ago, when voters said they favored Biden 50-40 percent.
The shift was driven by independent voters. Voters who said they were unaffiliated with either major party gave Biden a six-point lead, 44-38 percent, down from 12 points a week ago. Biden and Trump attracted a similar level of support from voters in their own parties, with 79 percent of Republicans saying they supported Trump and 76 percent of Democrats saying the same of Biden."
https://www.mediaite.com/news/trump-surges-in-rasmussen-poll-nearly-wipes-out-10-point-deficit-in-one-week-to-trail-biden-by-just-3/
Hmmm... Trump sure is closing the gap more quickly than we thought.
The article goes on to explain that Rasmussen samples a greater number of Republicans than its competitors. The underlying print here? Nearly every competitor samples far MORE Democrats than Republicans, Rasmussen is one of the few polls with a relatively even number of Dems and Reps, compared to the U. S. electorate
"Rasmussen was one of the most accurate pollsters in 2016 — correctly predicting Hillary Clinton would win the popular vote by two percentage points — but fell short in the 2018 midterms, when it predicted voters preferred Republicans by 1 percentage point. Democrats won the House by a cumulative 8.6 percent that year."
Also probably worth noting that in 2016 Rasmussen was not a big outlier relative to the other polls.
Every poll included by RCP over the last two weeks in 2016 had a margin within 4% of Rasmussen's in either direction. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
In 2018, Rasmussen was not within 6% of any other poll included, there were no polls with a more favorable margin to the Republicans, and it was the single worst performing poll. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html
This year, Rasmussen is again the most favorable poll to Republicans and every poll over the past month except for The Hill/Harris X poll has at least a 5% bigger margin. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
I specifically would not really pay much attention to Rasmussen though. Their approval tracking is constantly shifting between Trump disapproval by double digits and it being closer to even. Unless you think public opinion is really that fluid, they have a serious consistency problem.
On a side note, Trump's only going to get more ammo to attack Biden's senility after incidents like these:
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-arizona-important-city-interview-2020
Trump now trails former Vice President Joe Biden in the race for president by 3 percentage points among likely U.S. voters, according to the survey. Biden leads Trump 47-44 percent, marking a significant decline from his 10-point lead a week ago, when voters said they favored Biden 50-40 percent.
The shift was driven by independent voters. Voters who said they were unaffiliated with either major party gave Biden a six-point lead, 44-38 percent, down from 12 points a week ago. Biden and Trump attracted a similar level of support from voters in their own parties, with 79 percent of Republicans saying they supported Trump and 76 percent of Democrats saying the same of Biden."
https://www.mediaite.com/news/trump-surges-in-rasmussen-poll-nearly-wipes-out-10-point-deficit-in-one-week-to-trail-biden-by-just-3/
Hmmm... Trump sure is closing the gap more quickly than we thought.
The article goes on to explain that Rasmussen samples a greater number of Republicans than its competitors. The underlying print here? Nearly every competitor samples far MORE Democrats than Republicans, Rasmussen is one of the few polls with a relatively even number of Dems and Reps, compared to the U. S. electorate
"Rasmussen was one of the most accurate pollsters in 2016 — correctly predicting Hillary Clinton would win the popular vote by two percentage points — but fell short in the 2018 midterms, when it predicted voters preferred Republicans by 1 percentage point. Democrats won the House by a cumulative 8.6 percent that year."
Also probably worth noting that in 2016 Rasmussen was not a big outlier relative to the other polls.
Every poll included by RCP over the last two weeks in 2016 had a margin within 4% of Rasmussen's in either direction. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
In 2018, Rasmussen was not within 6% of any other poll included, there were no polls with a more favorable margin to the Republicans, and it was the single worst performing poll. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html
This year, Rasmussen is again the most favorable poll to Republicans and every poll over the past month except for The Hill/Harris X poll has at least a 5% bigger margin. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
I specifically would not really pay much attention to Rasmussen though. Their approval tracking is constantly shifting between Trump disapproval by double digits and it being closer to even. Unless you think public opinion is really that fluid, they have a serious consistency problem.
On a side note, Trump's only going to get more ammo to attack Biden's senility after incidents like these:
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-arizona-important-city-interview-2020
(no subject)
Date: 16/7/20 19:38 (UTC)And those fears aren't allowed to matter to the well-being of anyone, are they?