Two paths for Covid-19
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talkpoliticsWith nearly 100,000 infected and more than 3,300 deaths worldwide, the Covid-19 epidemic continues to grow, but in the last week it seems to have gone in a different direction. Since February 26, the new infected cases from outside China have exceeded those in China, with local epidemics in Italy, Iran and South Korea contributing most to this dynamic. The new cases are mounting every day, and still more, previously unaffected countries confirm the spreading geography of the disease. Along with the health crisis, the shadow of recession is already looming over the global economy as well. The good news is that China has been able to reduce the spreading rate so far, but the key question now is whether Europe, North America, and the rest of the world will manage to deal with the infection as efficiently. The question is not whether it will pass - that will certainly happen within the next three months at most - but rather, how big the damage will be.
According to WHO Director Thedros Ghebreyseus, the local outbreaks can be controlled, as the Chinese experience shows, and "containing the virus must remain a top priority for all countries." This means maintaining and expanding uncomfortable measures such as quarantines, closure of cities, travel control, limiting social contacts, etc.
Possible scenarios:
1) The optimistic scenario. Stopping the further spread of the virus from China, suppressing local outbreaks like those in Italy, South Korea and Iran, and curing all patients in the next 2-3 months is, of course, the best-case scenario. According to epidemiologists, if the epidemic in the affected areas follows the best possible development, it may peak as soon as the second half of March, and then go down. And unless new major outbreaks are allowed to happen, the damage to the economy and the markets will only continue to have an impact for the first quarter of the year. The development of the situation in Italy and the growing number of new cases in Germany, France, the US and other places, however, might be an indication that an optimistic scenario is less likely at this point. A more accurate prognosis will be made in a few days, when the outcome of the first measures to combat Italy's Coronavirus will be seen.
2) There is also a second, more realistic scenario, in which the number of infected people grows but at controlled rates. In this case, it will take weeks before the peak of new infections in Europe and the US is reached, and the climax of these epidemic curves will be in April or May. It will take several more months to treat the available cases. A similar scenario is hinted at by Morgan Stanley's analysis, forecasting that the trade and economic difficulties will also continue well into the second quarter of the year. Possibly, the battle with Covid-19 will continue for months - up to a year, and even then the virus will not disappear completely. Humanity's efforts to contain the virus, as gargantuan as they might be, are far from having a guaranteed success. At the very best, we are earning time that is used to develop drugs and vaccines. However, the vaccine - despite some sensationalist headlines in the media - will be fully ready for the market in a year or so.
3) The worst-case scenario is a global pandemic that cannot be controlled. Unfortunately, according to former Director of the Global Health Council, Jonathan Quick, and many of his colleagues at various international health institutions, this is the most likely scenario. The disease will spread worldwide and become endemic, which means that it will continue to circulate permanently in humans.
Two paths for the virus:
Dr. Amesh Adalja of the Johns Hopkins Health Center explains the possible two scenarios that the evolution of the virus could follow:
A) Covid-19 will supplement the menu of the other 4 endemic coronaviruses that cause most colds and respiratory diseases for most of the year - in the case of the new virus, they will at least initially be much worse, and likelier to cause pneumonia, although the Covid-19 may mutate into a milder version of itself over time);
B) or - more likely, it will remain an aggressive seasonal (winter) pathogen that is similarly symptomatic as, but worse than, influenza.
In both cases there will be more patients, but in the latter case, the epidemics will coincide with those of the flu, which means a concentration of many patients for a limited period of time. This will be a regular (annual) challenge for the health systems worldwide, as well as businesses.
Potential consequences:
The initial impact of the pandemic depends on many factors, most notably how quickly and easily the infection will spread, which remains a controversial issue.
Earlier data suggested that the virus was significantly more contagious than the flu and that there were many asymptomatic cases that can contribute to the spreading of the infection. Experts have even talked about models in which, if left unchecked, the virus may have the potential to affect between 40 and 70% of all humans on Earth.
Last week, however, Thedros Ghebreyseus said that the Covid-19 is spread less effectively than the flu. It does not appear to be transmitted by people who are not sick. In contrast, the WHO has also reported revised data on mortality rates from the virus, which is now estimated to be more than 30 times more lethal than the flu, which is estimated to kill between 290 and 650 thousand people worldwide annually.
The first wave will certainly be bad, as humans are immunologically vulnerable to the new virus, but over time they will gain immunity and although it may be short-lived, the subsequent waves may be much softer as well.
The next two weeks will define how exactly the epidemic will cross North America and Europe. Now that the contagion is a fact, the question is how big the damage will be and how long the most difficult period.
According to WHO Director Thedros Ghebreyseus, the local outbreaks can be controlled, as the Chinese experience shows, and "containing the virus must remain a top priority for all countries." This means maintaining and expanding uncomfortable measures such as quarantines, closure of cities, travel control, limiting social contacts, etc.
Possible scenarios:
1) The optimistic scenario. Stopping the further spread of the virus from China, suppressing local outbreaks like those in Italy, South Korea and Iran, and curing all patients in the next 2-3 months is, of course, the best-case scenario. According to epidemiologists, if the epidemic in the affected areas follows the best possible development, it may peak as soon as the second half of March, and then go down. And unless new major outbreaks are allowed to happen, the damage to the economy and the markets will only continue to have an impact for the first quarter of the year. The development of the situation in Italy and the growing number of new cases in Germany, France, the US and other places, however, might be an indication that an optimistic scenario is less likely at this point. A more accurate prognosis will be made in a few days, when the outcome of the first measures to combat Italy's Coronavirus will be seen.
2) There is also a second, more realistic scenario, in which the number of infected people grows but at controlled rates. In this case, it will take weeks before the peak of new infections in Europe and the US is reached, and the climax of these epidemic curves will be in April or May. It will take several more months to treat the available cases. A similar scenario is hinted at by Morgan Stanley's analysis, forecasting that the trade and economic difficulties will also continue well into the second quarter of the year. Possibly, the battle with Covid-19 will continue for months - up to a year, and even then the virus will not disappear completely. Humanity's efforts to contain the virus, as gargantuan as they might be, are far from having a guaranteed success. At the very best, we are earning time that is used to develop drugs and vaccines. However, the vaccine - despite some sensationalist headlines in the media - will be fully ready for the market in a year or so.
3) The worst-case scenario is a global pandemic that cannot be controlled. Unfortunately, according to former Director of the Global Health Council, Jonathan Quick, and many of his colleagues at various international health institutions, this is the most likely scenario. The disease will spread worldwide and become endemic, which means that it will continue to circulate permanently in humans.
Two paths for the virus:
Dr. Amesh Adalja of the Johns Hopkins Health Center explains the possible two scenarios that the evolution of the virus could follow:
A) Covid-19 will supplement the menu of the other 4 endemic coronaviruses that cause most colds and respiratory diseases for most of the year - in the case of the new virus, they will at least initially be much worse, and likelier to cause pneumonia, although the Covid-19 may mutate into a milder version of itself over time);
B) or - more likely, it will remain an aggressive seasonal (winter) pathogen that is similarly symptomatic as, but worse than, influenza.
In both cases there will be more patients, but in the latter case, the epidemics will coincide with those of the flu, which means a concentration of many patients for a limited period of time. This will be a regular (annual) challenge for the health systems worldwide, as well as businesses.
Potential consequences:
The initial impact of the pandemic depends on many factors, most notably how quickly and easily the infection will spread, which remains a controversial issue.
Earlier data suggested that the virus was significantly more contagious than the flu and that there were many asymptomatic cases that can contribute to the spreading of the infection. Experts have even talked about models in which, if left unchecked, the virus may have the potential to affect between 40 and 70% of all humans on Earth.
Last week, however, Thedros Ghebreyseus said that the Covid-19 is spread less effectively than the flu. It does not appear to be transmitted by people who are not sick. In contrast, the WHO has also reported revised data on mortality rates from the virus, which is now estimated to be more than 30 times more lethal than the flu, which is estimated to kill between 290 and 650 thousand people worldwide annually.
The first wave will certainly be bad, as humans are immunologically vulnerable to the new virus, but over time they will gain immunity and although it may be short-lived, the subsequent waves may be much softer as well.
The next two weeks will define how exactly the epidemic will cross North America and Europe. Now that the contagion is a fact, the question is how big the damage will be and how long the most difficult period.
