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talkpoliticsThe Democratic establishment has managed the nearly impossible. In the course of less than two weeks, it cut off Bernie Sanders at the pass and revived Joe Biden. "We're still very much alive", uncle Joe said triumphantly - and he wasn't wrong.
But let's not fool ourselves. This is a risk for the Dems, as it seems they're asking for 2016 all over again. The same people who would've shown up for Bernie in the General but decided to stay home for Hillary, or some even closed their noses and voted Trump, are probably going to do the very same thing now again.
Tbh, I don't really understand that mode of thought. It appears that Trump doesn't figure into their thinking at all. Personally, I don't feel the US could survive another huge swing to the left after being so far right for the last 3 years - but even worse, it won't survive another 4 years of Trump. These things kinda give me the chills.
But sitting home on election day if Bernie is the nominee just because you preferred a different candidate? Hmmm. That just gives Trump the edge. It may not give him that vote but it certainly withholds one from the Democrats.
If Trump were to, say, win by 100 votes, and 101 Democrats didn't vote because they wanted a different nominee, then can you not see how that will affect the overall outcome? Sadly, things have come to a point where it's basically "us or them", and I don't see how it matters any more who you'd need to vote for as long as that joke of a man leaves the White House next January.
The Dems have been known for their amazing ability to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory, and they look set to do that yet again. They're about to field one of the weakest nominees in a long time, and get crushed.
As for the party's best option, given the circumstances, let's remember that the Primary is about trying to get what people want, while the General is about getting what the party needs. And right now, the Dems need all the Democratic votes they can get. They need to rally big time around the nominee, whoever that may be and however weak they might be, because in the end is it not the goal to beat Trump? If it is, then you stomach what you can, and go out and vote Democrat. If you want Trump out at all, that is. If you don't - well... This whole conversation is pointless.
The party knows all this. They know that if they can make one last successful attempt to stop Bernie, he'll probably be out of the way forever, due to his age (not likely to run next time). And that's why the Dem establishment is pushing so hard right now. A few phone calls turned this thing around - the stage was suddenly cleared of all other candidates, essentially turning this into a two-horse race. How convenient. The party will now have ample time to sort this thing out quickly, without too much ugliness, and rally behind their hand-picked champion.
But things are going to get ugly from here on anyway, I suspect. The Bernie crowd won't let this slide so easily. Not a second time.
All the while, Trump having skillfully fueled the flames of internal party discord by taunting the Bernie supporters about their "stolen" nomination, about the establishment's role, and basically luring them into another sit-down, come General election day. Will they allow him to be successful in this? My bet is on Yes.
But let's not fool ourselves. This is a risk for the Dems, as it seems they're asking for 2016 all over again. The same people who would've shown up for Bernie in the General but decided to stay home for Hillary, or some even closed their noses and voted Trump, are probably going to do the very same thing now again.
Tbh, I don't really understand that mode of thought. It appears that Trump doesn't figure into their thinking at all. Personally, I don't feel the US could survive another huge swing to the left after being so far right for the last 3 years - but even worse, it won't survive another 4 years of Trump. These things kinda give me the chills.
But sitting home on election day if Bernie is the nominee just because you preferred a different candidate? Hmmm. That just gives Trump the edge. It may not give him that vote but it certainly withholds one from the Democrats.
If Trump were to, say, win by 100 votes, and 101 Democrats didn't vote because they wanted a different nominee, then can you not see how that will affect the overall outcome? Sadly, things have come to a point where it's basically "us or them", and I don't see how it matters any more who you'd need to vote for as long as that joke of a man leaves the White House next January.
The Dems have been known for their amazing ability to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory, and they look set to do that yet again. They're about to field one of the weakest nominees in a long time, and get crushed.
As for the party's best option, given the circumstances, let's remember that the Primary is about trying to get what people want, while the General is about getting what the party needs. And right now, the Dems need all the Democratic votes they can get. They need to rally big time around the nominee, whoever that may be and however weak they might be, because in the end is it not the goal to beat Trump? If it is, then you stomach what you can, and go out and vote Democrat. If you want Trump out at all, that is. If you don't - well... This whole conversation is pointless.
The party knows all this. They know that if they can make one last successful attempt to stop Bernie, he'll probably be out of the way forever, due to his age (not likely to run next time). And that's why the Dem establishment is pushing so hard right now. A few phone calls turned this thing around - the stage was suddenly cleared of all other candidates, essentially turning this into a two-horse race. How convenient. The party will now have ample time to sort this thing out quickly, without too much ugliness, and rally behind their hand-picked champion.
But things are going to get ugly from here on anyway, I suspect. The Bernie crowd won't let this slide so easily. Not a second time.
All the while, Trump having skillfully fueled the flames of internal party discord by taunting the Bernie supporters about their "stolen" nomination, about the establishment's role, and basically luring them into another sit-down, come General election day. Will they allow him to be successful in this? My bet is on Yes.
(no subject)
Date: 8/3/20 20:22 (UTC)Mr. Biden probably could have won the 2016 primaries if he had run, and remember, Mrs. Clinton, despite it all, won 52% of the vote in the general election. Mr. Biden's favorability polls at about +10% while Mrs. Clinton was around -10% at the time of the election. I also expect the Democrats will run a better campaign this time around.
(no subject)
Date: 9/3/20 15:02 (UTC)I tend to think this latter view is born out by the degree to which Bernie Sanders' base has cratered by over half in four years.
(no subject)
Date: 9/3/20 23:27 (UTC)The Democratic Party is determined not to shoot themselves in the foot like they did last time, and that means they care about the rust belt and how their nominee performs there more than ANY other factor. We’ll see who performs the best there.
In fact, I'm willing to make a prediction: After "Super Tuesday", the party management probably got together behind closed doors and said this:
"Look, if all you candidates stay in here, you're all going to split the vote and Bernie will keep carrying the fringe. None of you will win, even though in a one-on-one with Bernie probably all of you would win. So the way things are, Bernie the fringe candidate will go up against Trump the fringe candidate, and Trump is going to nail him to the wall in the rust belt, and every other state will vote along party lines and it'll be four more years of Trump."
"If we kick Bernie out of the race right now, after carrying California, the Democrat fringe will go completely bananas and burn us alive for seven long months. No candidate will survive that. We have to keep him in, and hope that he either grows in stature enough to carry the election - a total longshot - or gets whacked soundly in the rest of the primaries and his fringe calms down. But to make that happen he needs to face one candidate."
"So we're booting you. All of you, except Joe. We know there's that whole Burisma thing, and he's an old white guy, but the electoral college is what it is. If the Democratic party can't get people in Michigan out of their houses and into voting booths, we may as well not exist."