All against one
28/11/19 10:54![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
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talkpoliticshttps://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50554510
In Georgia (the country Georgia), the ruling party Georgian Dream of oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili has found itself in a very difficult situation. Ongoing mass protests are demanding their resignation from power and new elections with a purely proportional system (as promised). The protest is not only supported by the radical opposition (generally associated with former president Mikheil Saakashvili) and his United National Movementm but also those who are opposed to the latter, including some pro-Russian parties.
The so called "Dreamers" actually earned all this trouble for themselves on their own. In summer, while there were still some protests against Russian MP Sergei Gavrilov (and Orthodox Assembly leader) chairing an actual session of the Georgian parliament, president Ivanishvili promised a set of law changes that would make the electoral system completely proportional, and with a zero percent barrier for entry into parliament (something unprecedented!) But as soon as time came for voting on those bills, a nmber of his MPs backpedaled. And then crap hit the fan: mass protests in front of the parliament and other government institutions, tent camps on the main Rustaveli boulevard in Tbilisi, etc.
All of this kind of resembles the 2003 Rose Revolution. Except, roses used to be the symbol of the protests, and now it's padlocks - the opposition threatens to "lock up" its opponents once it gets in power. And unlike 16 years ago, the international "partners" are doing their best to remain silent - neither support the protesters, nor the rulers.
But let's see how Ivanishvili tricked and lied to everyone, and why. I wouldn't be surprised if the Georgian Dream party is scared of new elections next year, despite the prospects of getting a lot of MPs in the next parliament. They'll probably still fail to get a majority that would help them change the constitution. The Dreamers are losing voters by the day, and people have stopped seeing a new messiah in Ivanishvili. While the current mixed type of electoral system does still give them some hopes to expand their parliamentary presence through installing "friendly folks" in some places, and even if that allows them to win the next election, it's likely that they'll still need to form a coalition if they're to stay in power.
So why did the Deamers lose their approval and trust from the people? Firstly, that political project was always meant to work in coalitions. It was formed by a myriad of political factors that were often in opposition to one another. What united them all was their ambition to dominate, and of course their common goal, to push Saakashvili and his allies out of the field. They didn't manage to achieve that completely. So naturally, the coalition eventually disintegrated.
Secondly, and probably most importantly, many of their social and economic promise were not met. The rulers couldn't turn Georgia into a normal European country - not for 4 years (as promised), and not for 7 either. The Georgian people still live in misery, the national currency is dangerously deflated, unemployment and inflation are causing an overwhelming sense of hopelessness.
History seems to be repeating now: the opposition, whose consolidation was inherently doomed to fail due to the incompatibility of its components (from pro-Western forces to pro-Kremlin agents, to Euroskeptics), will eventually split the Georgian political scene even more deeply than before. It has no unified platform. Everyone is merely united by the common goal to push Ivanishvili and his surrogates out of the scene. Once that's achieved, they'll start bickering over things like foreign policy. Some of them would push for the West, others will be dragging to the north (Russia), and still others will want a neutral Georgia. Not a single new pro-Georgian force capable of winning most of the electorate has shown up yet. And people will have to choose between several evils again, Saakashvili included. So who'll prevail? The preference for the incumbents (out of fear for "Misha"), or the striving for Misha's "iron fist"?
Although this autumn crisis in Georgia may seem as an internal matter, things are also reflecting on a number of foreign-relation issues, since the outcome would determine Georgia's foreign policies, with all the regional implications that come with this - and South Caucasus has always been a powder keg, with lots of big players scrambling for influence, and often willing to light the match if they deem it beneficiary for themselves: Russia, USA, NATO, partly the EU and Turkey as well.
It's notable that neither the West nor Russia has shown signs of backing any side this time. Maybe because these big external players don't see a big difference in who's ruling Georgia right now. Despite all allegations that Ivanishvili is a conduit for Kremlin's interests, that's hardly the case actually. As in Saakashvili's time, Georgia may've stated a NATO and EU membership as its top priority, but in fact neither bloc seems too enthusiastic about accepting it just yet. Indeed, the oligarch's rule has kind of smoothened out the relations with Russia - the rhetoric has calmed down somewhat, but that's where it ends.
And what does it matter for Russia or the West who rules in Georgia, since there are no visible changes in its foreign policy? Sure, if it does decide to make a drastic step towards the Eurasian Union or some of Putin's other toy projects, then the West would certainly cry foul and start whining about civil rights, corruption, etc. Conversely, if it does make some significant steps towards NATO or the EU, Putin would bring the heavy guns, no doubt about it. But neither scenario seems very likely at this point.
So why can't Georgia finally calm down? Well, let me remind that the rulers have only once been changed the normal way there in its recent history, through elections. Maybe it's just the Georgians' mentality speaking, but those folks seem too inclined to trust one messiah after another. At first they recognised one in independent president Gamsakhurdia, but then they quickly deposed him with force. Then Eduard Shevardnadze came back, and he was met with huge expectations. There were folks even kneeling before him as if he was Jesus. But they grew tired of him soon too, and he was deposed. A new messiah followed, Mikhail Saakashvili. Now they've got Ivanishvili. And again they seem to be unhappy with the choice. The Rustaveli boulevard is boiling again, the Tbilisi centre has become a tent camp, camp fires are lighting the city every night, people are dancing, chanting slogans, demanding that Ivanishvili should go. Their slogan is "All against one". In other words, a new revolutionary scenario is playing out. We've watched this movie over and over again, and chances are we'll watch it again in 2020 when the election comes.
The rulers' apparent confidence and calmness notwithstanding, the situation is rather uncomfortable for them, and most importantly, very painful, even tragic for the commonfolk. "While the stallions fight with each other, the donkeys are dragging on", the local proverb goes. And the donkeys have kept dragging heavy stuff for 30 years now. In the meantime, if Georgia had spent those years more wisely, not chasing messiahs and promises (including ones from outside), it could've become a normal "Middle European" country by now. But it didn't. There's always a new messiah waiting to step in. And they're all false ones. All kings are naked. And the country rumbles on on autopilot.
In Georgia (the country Georgia), the ruling party Georgian Dream of oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili has found itself in a very difficult situation. Ongoing mass protests are demanding their resignation from power and new elections with a purely proportional system (as promised). The protest is not only supported by the radical opposition (generally associated with former president Mikheil Saakashvili) and his United National Movementm but also those who are opposed to the latter, including some pro-Russian parties.
The so called "Dreamers" actually earned all this trouble for themselves on their own. In summer, while there were still some protests against Russian MP Sergei Gavrilov (and Orthodox Assembly leader) chairing an actual session of the Georgian parliament, president Ivanishvili promised a set of law changes that would make the electoral system completely proportional, and with a zero percent barrier for entry into parliament (something unprecedented!) But as soon as time came for voting on those bills, a nmber of his MPs backpedaled. And then crap hit the fan: mass protests in front of the parliament and other government institutions, tent camps on the main Rustaveli boulevard in Tbilisi, etc.
All of this kind of resembles the 2003 Rose Revolution. Except, roses used to be the symbol of the protests, and now it's padlocks - the opposition threatens to "lock up" its opponents once it gets in power. And unlike 16 years ago, the international "partners" are doing their best to remain silent - neither support the protesters, nor the rulers.
But let's see how Ivanishvili tricked and lied to everyone, and why. I wouldn't be surprised if the Georgian Dream party is scared of new elections next year, despite the prospects of getting a lot of MPs in the next parliament. They'll probably still fail to get a majority that would help them change the constitution. The Dreamers are losing voters by the day, and people have stopped seeing a new messiah in Ivanishvili. While the current mixed type of electoral system does still give them some hopes to expand their parliamentary presence through installing "friendly folks" in some places, and even if that allows them to win the next election, it's likely that they'll still need to form a coalition if they're to stay in power.
So why did the Deamers lose their approval and trust from the people? Firstly, that political project was always meant to work in coalitions. It was formed by a myriad of political factors that were often in opposition to one another. What united them all was their ambition to dominate, and of course their common goal, to push Saakashvili and his allies out of the field. They didn't manage to achieve that completely. So naturally, the coalition eventually disintegrated.
Secondly, and probably most importantly, many of their social and economic promise were not met. The rulers couldn't turn Georgia into a normal European country - not for 4 years (as promised), and not for 7 either. The Georgian people still live in misery, the national currency is dangerously deflated, unemployment and inflation are causing an overwhelming sense of hopelessness.
History seems to be repeating now: the opposition, whose consolidation was inherently doomed to fail due to the incompatibility of its components (from pro-Western forces to pro-Kremlin agents, to Euroskeptics), will eventually split the Georgian political scene even more deeply than before. It has no unified platform. Everyone is merely united by the common goal to push Ivanishvili and his surrogates out of the scene. Once that's achieved, they'll start bickering over things like foreign policy. Some of them would push for the West, others will be dragging to the north (Russia), and still others will want a neutral Georgia. Not a single new pro-Georgian force capable of winning most of the electorate has shown up yet. And people will have to choose between several evils again, Saakashvili included. So who'll prevail? The preference for the incumbents (out of fear for "Misha"), or the striving for Misha's "iron fist"?
Although this autumn crisis in Georgia may seem as an internal matter, things are also reflecting on a number of foreign-relation issues, since the outcome would determine Georgia's foreign policies, with all the regional implications that come with this - and South Caucasus has always been a powder keg, with lots of big players scrambling for influence, and often willing to light the match if they deem it beneficiary for themselves: Russia, USA, NATO, partly the EU and Turkey as well.
It's notable that neither the West nor Russia has shown signs of backing any side this time. Maybe because these big external players don't see a big difference in who's ruling Georgia right now. Despite all allegations that Ivanishvili is a conduit for Kremlin's interests, that's hardly the case actually. As in Saakashvili's time, Georgia may've stated a NATO and EU membership as its top priority, but in fact neither bloc seems too enthusiastic about accepting it just yet. Indeed, the oligarch's rule has kind of smoothened out the relations with Russia - the rhetoric has calmed down somewhat, but that's where it ends.
And what does it matter for Russia or the West who rules in Georgia, since there are no visible changes in its foreign policy? Sure, if it does decide to make a drastic step towards the Eurasian Union or some of Putin's other toy projects, then the West would certainly cry foul and start whining about civil rights, corruption, etc. Conversely, if it does make some significant steps towards NATO or the EU, Putin would bring the heavy guns, no doubt about it. But neither scenario seems very likely at this point.
So why can't Georgia finally calm down? Well, let me remind that the rulers have only once been changed the normal way there in its recent history, through elections. Maybe it's just the Georgians' mentality speaking, but those folks seem too inclined to trust one messiah after another. At first they recognised one in independent president Gamsakhurdia, but then they quickly deposed him with force. Then Eduard Shevardnadze came back, and he was met with huge expectations. There were folks even kneeling before him as if he was Jesus. But they grew tired of him soon too, and he was deposed. A new messiah followed, Mikhail Saakashvili. Now they've got Ivanishvili. And again they seem to be unhappy with the choice. The Rustaveli boulevard is boiling again, the Tbilisi centre has become a tent camp, camp fires are lighting the city every night, people are dancing, chanting slogans, demanding that Ivanishvili should go. Their slogan is "All against one". In other words, a new revolutionary scenario is playing out. We've watched this movie over and over again, and chances are we'll watch it again in 2020 when the election comes.
The rulers' apparent confidence and calmness notwithstanding, the situation is rather uncomfortable for them, and most importantly, very painful, even tragic for the commonfolk. "While the stallions fight with each other, the donkeys are dragging on", the local proverb goes. And the donkeys have kept dragging heavy stuff for 30 years now. In the meantime, if Georgia had spent those years more wisely, not chasing messiahs and promises (including ones from outside), it could've become a normal "Middle European" country by now. But it didn't. There's always a new messiah waiting to step in. And they're all false ones. All kings are naked. And the country rumbles on on autopilot.
