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talkpoliticshttps://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html
This is the annual statistical report of BP for the year. I have read all sorts of interpretations on the media since, and every time I am amazed how far from reality could both activists and lobbyists go as they spin in search of arguments to match their particular political agenda. So let's just put the numbers on the table, and ask a few logical questions which every thinking person could answer for themselves.
The report includes lots of details; here is just one of the graphs.
Now the facts. Since the signing of the Kyoto protocol in 1997, the world has largely vowed to limit its carbon emissions. In result, we have been hearing, talking, promoting and investing into the so called transition to renewables, a new energy revolution that is defining our epoch. So here is where we are as of now...
1. Energy efficiency and limiting energy consumption. The energy spared is pure profit, right? Yes, but the world does need energy, and energy consumption hasn't stopped growing. Evidently, it tends to drop somewhat only at times of deep economic crisis, like 2009, when billions of people experienced an economic downturn, and some even starved to death. Is that what we want? Hardly. The last year 2018 shows that the world is hungry for energy: the annual increase is 2.9%, the biggest one since 2010. Yes, energy efficiency is important. And no, it does not necessarily lead to an overall drop in the energy consumption. The average individual in Africa still consumes 16 times less energy than the average US citizen. There is plenty of room for the emerging middle class in Africa and Asia to get hungrier for energy in the years to come. In that sense, I think it is obvious that the need for energy will be increasing for a long time.
2. Renewable energy sources. In the 2011-2015 period it seemed like the energy transition was going on irreversibly: solar, wind, hydro, they all grew exponentially, occupying an ever larger share of the annual energy production and the global energy investments. But the last two years, epecially 2018, have firmly reversed this tren. In 2015, the hydro energy sector contributed 46% of the global consumption growth, and last year that share dropped to 18%. New investment is also stagnant in the sector. Note that in 2009, hydro was the only source of growth in the energy production, and respectively, consumption. This was due to the nature of this source - it produces energy no matter if anyone needs it right now, energy that we all have to use and pay for anyway, no matter its current price. Sounds a bit worrying, doesn't it?
3. The energy sector. The production and consumption of electricity, although it is slowly and gradually increasing, still comprises below 20% of the end energy consumption globally. Moreover, the BP analysis does not include the so called traditional biomas or the burning of timber, plant and animal products for cooking and heating. And this is in fact the number one energy source throughout Africa, and the largest renewable source globally. Surely, there is not a single sane person who would want us to get back to the Stone Age methods of energy production and storage, right?
4. Coal. Until a few years ago it seemed the end of the coal industry was imminent. Coal looked doomed as a primary energy source. Not so in the last two years. 2018 has shred this myth to pieces. Asia, and to some extent Africa, the Middle East, even the West Balkans, still have such huge energy needs that there is simply not a force that could meet them in terms of quantity, reliability and price, in a way that coal can. I doubt anyone believes the combination of these three factors is insignificant for these economies - and many of those are emerging economy, i.e. with a big potential for further expansion (read: even bigger hunger for energy).
5. Nuclear power. Unfortunately, the most large-scale and energy-efficient, low-carbon energy source on the planet has been in crisis since the beginning of the century. Even Hollywood productions like Chernobyl tend to sway the public against it. Its future is unpredictable, I'd even say grum. If people believe that carbon emissions are a serious threat to the world, they should pray every day that nuclear power returns on the map soon, because it is currently the only viable rival to coal on all the three above-mentioned factors. And yet, rational nations like Germany and Japan are moving against it, and rather than trying to make that sector safer, even more efficient and modern, they are scrapping it.
6. Oil. I must admit there was a time I used to loudly predict the imminent end of oil. Nonsense! Oil production, reseres, trade, and consumption, all of that has been growing. Oil is, and will ong remain simultaneously both the fuel (!) and the pulse of the world economy. All stats point to a correlation between the oscillations of global oil production and economic growth.
7. Gas. If we get rid of the pinky glasses for a moment and look realistically, we would notice that we are in a process of accelerating gasification. Gas production and consumption has been growing, and its share in the global energy portfolio, too. In 2018, gas comprised 43% of the global energy consumption growth, basically crushing every other energy source. Unlike solar and wind, which only have a fairly significant contribution to the global electricity production (and electricity =! energy), gas is everywhere around us: electricity, transportation, heating, industrial production. Gas is universal, clean, extremely easy to control, and all in all a convenient energy source for everyone and everything, with very little loss in the process of transportation and transformation. Thanks to new investments and technologies for extraction, liquifying and re-gasification, gas is available in enormous quantities and could be transported similarly to oil, and not just via pipes but on ships too.
All that being said here are two simple conclusions:
Firstly, the share of low-carbon energy sources (solar/wind, hydro, nuclear) in the global consumption of primary energy has hardly moved up in the last decade, from 13% to 15% in 2000-2018. The consumption of fossil fuels has soared by a combined 45%, and keeps growing. In other words, the coveted results about their restriction, and the related carbon emissions targets, are simply not there.
Secondly, the world is obviously turning to gas as a leading enging for development. What's happening is actually a Gas Revolution, not a Renewables Revolution:
And finally, a couple of questions that everyone could try answering for themselves. Where is the place of your country and your continent in all these global processes? What role does it play? How will your particular society benefit from these processes? Who benefits from the particular policies of action or inaction of your particular government? Do we want to have/get/maintain a leading position in our respective region's economy, or do we rather prefer to ride the moral high horse, and take the backseat of global development as a result? Do we want to have a say on global matters, and set the agenda, including on the energy issue? And in which direction do we want to steer the world's development on that subject, provided that we do have a say?
This is the annual statistical report of BP for the year. I have read all sorts of interpretations on the media since, and every time I am amazed how far from reality could both activists and lobbyists go as they spin in search of arguments to match their particular political agenda. So let's just put the numbers on the table, and ask a few logical questions which every thinking person could answer for themselves.
The report includes lots of details; here is just one of the graphs.
Now the facts. Since the signing of the Kyoto protocol in 1997, the world has largely vowed to limit its carbon emissions. In result, we have been hearing, talking, promoting and investing into the so called transition to renewables, a new energy revolution that is defining our epoch. So here is where we are as of now...
1. Energy efficiency and limiting energy consumption. The energy spared is pure profit, right? Yes, but the world does need energy, and energy consumption hasn't stopped growing. Evidently, it tends to drop somewhat only at times of deep economic crisis, like 2009, when billions of people experienced an economic downturn, and some even starved to death. Is that what we want? Hardly. The last year 2018 shows that the world is hungry for energy: the annual increase is 2.9%, the biggest one since 2010. Yes, energy efficiency is important. And no, it does not necessarily lead to an overall drop in the energy consumption. The average individual in Africa still consumes 16 times less energy than the average US citizen. There is plenty of room for the emerging middle class in Africa and Asia to get hungrier for energy in the years to come. In that sense, I think it is obvious that the need for energy will be increasing for a long time.
2. Renewable energy sources. In the 2011-2015 period it seemed like the energy transition was going on irreversibly: solar, wind, hydro, they all grew exponentially, occupying an ever larger share of the annual energy production and the global energy investments. But the last two years, epecially 2018, have firmly reversed this tren. In 2015, the hydro energy sector contributed 46% of the global consumption growth, and last year that share dropped to 18%. New investment is also stagnant in the sector. Note that in 2009, hydro was the only source of growth in the energy production, and respectively, consumption. This was due to the nature of this source - it produces energy no matter if anyone needs it right now, energy that we all have to use and pay for anyway, no matter its current price. Sounds a bit worrying, doesn't it?
3. The energy sector. The production and consumption of electricity, although it is slowly and gradually increasing, still comprises below 20% of the end energy consumption globally. Moreover, the BP analysis does not include the so called traditional biomas or the burning of timber, plant and animal products for cooking and heating. And this is in fact the number one energy source throughout Africa, and the largest renewable source globally. Surely, there is not a single sane person who would want us to get back to the Stone Age methods of energy production and storage, right?
4. Coal. Until a few years ago it seemed the end of the coal industry was imminent. Coal looked doomed as a primary energy source. Not so in the last two years. 2018 has shred this myth to pieces. Asia, and to some extent Africa, the Middle East, even the West Balkans, still have such huge energy needs that there is simply not a force that could meet them in terms of quantity, reliability and price, in a way that coal can. I doubt anyone believes the combination of these three factors is insignificant for these economies - and many of those are emerging economy, i.e. with a big potential for further expansion (read: even bigger hunger for energy).
5. Nuclear power. Unfortunately, the most large-scale and energy-efficient, low-carbon energy source on the planet has been in crisis since the beginning of the century. Even Hollywood productions like Chernobyl tend to sway the public against it. Its future is unpredictable, I'd even say grum. If people believe that carbon emissions are a serious threat to the world, they should pray every day that nuclear power returns on the map soon, because it is currently the only viable rival to coal on all the three above-mentioned factors. And yet, rational nations like Germany and Japan are moving against it, and rather than trying to make that sector safer, even more efficient and modern, they are scrapping it.
6. Oil. I must admit there was a time I used to loudly predict the imminent end of oil. Nonsense! Oil production, reseres, trade, and consumption, all of that has been growing. Oil is, and will ong remain simultaneously both the fuel (!) and the pulse of the world economy. All stats point to a correlation between the oscillations of global oil production and economic growth.
7. Gas. If we get rid of the pinky glasses for a moment and look realistically, we would notice that we are in a process of accelerating gasification. Gas production and consumption has been growing, and its share in the global energy portfolio, too. In 2018, gas comprised 43% of the global energy consumption growth, basically crushing every other energy source. Unlike solar and wind, which only have a fairly significant contribution to the global electricity production (and electricity =! energy), gas is everywhere around us: electricity, transportation, heating, industrial production. Gas is universal, clean, extremely easy to control, and all in all a convenient energy source for everyone and everything, with very little loss in the process of transportation and transformation. Thanks to new investments and technologies for extraction, liquifying and re-gasification, gas is available in enormous quantities and could be transported similarly to oil, and not just via pipes but on ships too.
All that being said here are two simple conclusions:
Firstly, the share of low-carbon energy sources (solar/wind, hydro, nuclear) in the global consumption of primary energy has hardly moved up in the last decade, from 13% to 15% in 2000-2018. The consumption of fossil fuels has soared by a combined 45%, and keeps growing. In other words, the coveted results about their restriction, and the related carbon emissions targets, are simply not there.
Secondly, the world is obviously turning to gas as a leading enging for development. What's happening is actually a Gas Revolution, not a Renewables Revolution:
And finally, a couple of questions that everyone could try answering for themselves. Where is the place of your country and your continent in all these global processes? What role does it play? How will your particular society benefit from these processes? Who benefits from the particular policies of action or inaction of your particular government? Do we want to have/get/maintain a leading position in our respective region's economy, or do we rather prefer to ride the moral high horse, and take the backseat of global development as a result? Do we want to have a say on global matters, and set the agenda, including on the energy issue? And in which direction do we want to steer the world's development on that subject, provided that we do have a say?
