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talkpoliticsThe Chinese experiment, i.e. the splitting of the communist social and political system into a political dictatorship and a quasi-market economy of the so called Far Eastern type, has failed. In China, the market economy is private, but under the full control of the Communist Party. They've given ownership of the large corporate groups to private citizens and allowed new ones to flourish, but only under the control of party bureaucrats. These work for their own interests and benefit, but under the political umbrella of the Chinese Communist Party, which takes its due share from the profit.
This way, the Chinese economy has been able to see a remarkable growth, as it has practically developed without any labor rules, with no units to hinder it, and with no effective regulatory framework that the entrepreneurs could work along. Which is why the Chinese products are the cheapest in the world. Indeed, the labor rules in China are nowhere near the level of labor protection standards in the US and EU, including in cases that look like forced labor, and abuse of the individual human rights that the West has fought to achieve for centuries.
All of this should be taken into account when we're viewing the ongoing US-Chinese trade war, which is about to escalate now. In order to contain China in the lack of an excuse for the systematic abuse of labor rights in China, the US could impose a total embargo on China, which Europe would be forced to comply with so as to be politically correct. Russia would also have reasons to follow suit, lest they risk being caught in the fire too. In that case, if the West is truly ready for such a drastic step, the US and European companies in China would have to be given ample time to get out of China before the actual embargo comes in place. But that's just a hypothetical scenario, and very unlikely to happen.
The next few weeks will be critical for all sides. The Hong Kong protests are not subsiding, and, combined with the extraordinarily huge celebrations for the 70th anniversary of the People's Republic (essentially the most important event for the CCP in decades), things could easily escalate into a giant political anomaly that would seriously affect both the domestic and international reputation of the Chinese leadership.
So we shouldn't be surprised if we witness a massive crackdown by Beijing under the excuse of "keeping law and order", and even removing the "one state, two systems" model. That could be done by the nearby Chinese garrison, which last week under the excuse of a 22 year rotation shift was suddenly doubled in size. In fact, the usual 3-5 thousand Chinese troops present in Hong Kong have now increased to 10-12 thousand, which is more than enough to seize control of the city.
If China does decide to intervene, it could unilaterally end HK's special administrative status, which remains valid as of now as per the 1984 agreement signed by Thatcher, which stipulated a return of HK to China in 1997 under the "one state, two systems" model that was supposed to last for half a century. That would be the worst-case scenario, because there's virtually nothing the West could do about it at this point, save for the already mentioned total embargo on China. Right now, China is probing the situation and testing how far the West's resolve goes as far as Hong Kong is concerned. If they sense weakness in this respect, they could decide to escalate, send their troops into the South China Sea, even occupy Taiwan, and expand their military presence in the region. And THEN things could get really out of hand.
This way, the Chinese economy has been able to see a remarkable growth, as it has practically developed without any labor rules, with no units to hinder it, and with no effective regulatory framework that the entrepreneurs could work along. Which is why the Chinese products are the cheapest in the world. Indeed, the labor rules in China are nowhere near the level of labor protection standards in the US and EU, including in cases that look like forced labor, and abuse of the individual human rights that the West has fought to achieve for centuries.
All of this should be taken into account when we're viewing the ongoing US-Chinese trade war, which is about to escalate now. In order to contain China in the lack of an excuse for the systematic abuse of labor rights in China, the US could impose a total embargo on China, which Europe would be forced to comply with so as to be politically correct. Russia would also have reasons to follow suit, lest they risk being caught in the fire too. In that case, if the West is truly ready for such a drastic step, the US and European companies in China would have to be given ample time to get out of China before the actual embargo comes in place. But that's just a hypothetical scenario, and very unlikely to happen.
The next few weeks will be critical for all sides. The Hong Kong protests are not subsiding, and, combined with the extraordinarily huge celebrations for the 70th anniversary of the People's Republic (essentially the most important event for the CCP in decades), things could easily escalate into a giant political anomaly that would seriously affect both the domestic and international reputation of the Chinese leadership.
So we shouldn't be surprised if we witness a massive crackdown by Beijing under the excuse of "keeping law and order", and even removing the "one state, two systems" model. That could be done by the nearby Chinese garrison, which last week under the excuse of a 22 year rotation shift was suddenly doubled in size. In fact, the usual 3-5 thousand Chinese troops present in Hong Kong have now increased to 10-12 thousand, which is more than enough to seize control of the city.
If China does decide to intervene, it could unilaterally end HK's special administrative status, which remains valid as of now as per the 1984 agreement signed by Thatcher, which stipulated a return of HK to China in 1997 under the "one state, two systems" model that was supposed to last for half a century. That would be the worst-case scenario, because there's virtually nothing the West could do about it at this point, save for the already mentioned total embargo on China. Right now, China is probing the situation and testing how far the West's resolve goes as far as Hong Kong is concerned. If they sense weakness in this respect, they could decide to escalate, send their troops into the South China Sea, even occupy Taiwan, and expand their military presence in the region. And THEN things could get really out of hand.
(no subject)
Date: 7/10/19 22:52 (UTC)We can have a hundred times as many hashtags and retweets ready at a days notice.
That may not be the limits of our resolve - but Hong Kong may want to prepare as if it were.
(no subject)
Date: 8/10/19 07:12 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 8/10/19 13:51 (UTC)