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talkpoliticsPro-Putin candidates suffer losses in Moscow elections
One possible way to interpret the result of the Russian local elections if of course that it's a win for the ruling party. In all 16 regions, the pro-Kremlin governors won, although many were under the guise of independents. The ruling party got a majority in 12 out of the 13 local parliaments where a vote was held, which gave some of its members a reason to claim a landslide victory.
Except, in Moscow, Putin's party suffered a major setback. Half of their seats at the local Duma were lost, and now they'll have 25 out of 45 seats. Still a majority, but much worse than before. The collapse is even more visible, given the fact that the candidates of the non-establishment opposition (mostly Navalny) were blocked from participating (leading to the biggest protests in Moscow since 2012). Kremlin's panic about this challenge was visible in the police brutality against the protesters, and this suddenly raised the stakes in an otherwise meaningless election (the Moscow Duma is not such an important institution), turning it into a sort of indicator for the public moods towards president Putin. The result may also be a hint of what's to come in the 2021 parliamentary election and the 2024 presidential election, when Putin is expected to pass the baton to a successor.
The drama was amped up partially due to the tragic case in Volgograd, where communist candidate and retired colonel from the tank brigades, Vadim Chestyakov died of heart stroke while trying to argue with the members of the local polling officials. His pro-Kremlin opponent, himself also a retired colonel, retained his gubernatorial position.
Putin's party managed to hold the president's home city, St.Petersburg, where the pro-Kremlin candidate Beglov won by 64%. His main opponent, Vladimir Borotko of the Communist Party, suddenly withdrew from the race, causing rumors that he had done it under Kremlin's pressure. As for Beglov, he was one of many pro-Kremlin candidates who ran as independents, trying to distance themselves from a party whose approval ratings are now about 30%, what with all the discontent from the raising of the retirement age, the deteriorating income, and the corruption scandals.
Despite the overall Kremlin victory, the extremely low turnout and the employment of the entire administrative machinery in favor of the pro-Kremlin candidates, the opposition parties, from leftist to liberal, in fact managed to strengthen their position across most regions.
Putin's party, United Russia was defeated in the Khabarovsk region in the Far East, only getting 2 seats at the local parliament. This is the first Russian region that won't be controlled by the Kremlin. The Liberal-Democratic Party won there, a nationalis faction headed by the (in)famous Vladimir Zhirinovsky. The Kremlin's defeat there is in no way less painful, despite the fact that the liberals-democrats are basically Kremlin's allies, ergo not a real opposition.
But the main shock came from Moscow itself, where the opposition, including communists and other leftist parties, plus the liberal Yabloko party, took a total of 20 seats. This was largely due to the so called "smart vote", inspired by Navalny. Basically, it was voting for candidates that looked like the best chance to unseat the incumbents. In many cases, the voters had to hold their nose and vote for commies and others they didn't particularly like, just for the sake of hurting Putin. This way the communists ended up with 13 seats (compared to 5 until now). The same way, the leader of Putin's Moscow organization was unseated, losing to an obscure communist candidate.
There were some hilarious cases as well, like the police removing a drunken man from one of the polling stations in South Moscow, who was trying to "vote for Putin".
The president's name wasn't featured on the ballots of course, but the Moscow election was an eloquent hit on the system of governance he has established. More opposition presence in the local administrations means the anti-Kremlin forces will now have a platform to be heard. United Russia may still have an informal majority, and the pro-Kremlin mayor Sergey Sobyanin may still be able to pass whatever decisions he likes, but the "smart vote" has evidently worked well. The problem is, the opposition is too diverse and not necessarily united very much. Besides, many of their representatives could still be bought off.
Still, the result is an indication for a crisis in Putin's political system. It shows the Kremlin needs to urgently reassess its strategy, before the next election is not too far away, and it's way more important. Sure, the local election may not be a clear indicator about the opposition's strength at this point, moreover the "smart vote" doesn't exactly give an idea of people's real moods and political preferences, but Putin's waning popularity is already becoming too apparent to be ignored.
One possible way to interpret the result of the Russian local elections if of course that it's a win for the ruling party. In all 16 regions, the pro-Kremlin governors won, although many were under the guise of independents. The ruling party got a majority in 12 out of the 13 local parliaments where a vote was held, which gave some of its members a reason to claim a landslide victory.
Except, in Moscow, Putin's party suffered a major setback. Half of their seats at the local Duma were lost, and now they'll have 25 out of 45 seats. Still a majority, but much worse than before. The collapse is even more visible, given the fact that the candidates of the non-establishment opposition (mostly Navalny) were blocked from participating (leading to the biggest protests in Moscow since 2012). Kremlin's panic about this challenge was visible in the police brutality against the protesters, and this suddenly raised the stakes in an otherwise meaningless election (the Moscow Duma is not such an important institution), turning it into a sort of indicator for the public moods towards president Putin. The result may also be a hint of what's to come in the 2021 parliamentary election and the 2024 presidential election, when Putin is expected to pass the baton to a successor.
The drama was amped up partially due to the tragic case in Volgograd, where communist candidate and retired colonel from the tank brigades, Vadim Chestyakov died of heart stroke while trying to argue with the members of the local polling officials. His pro-Kremlin opponent, himself also a retired colonel, retained his gubernatorial position.
Putin's party managed to hold the president's home city, St.Petersburg, where the pro-Kremlin candidate Beglov won by 64%. His main opponent, Vladimir Borotko of the Communist Party, suddenly withdrew from the race, causing rumors that he had done it under Kremlin's pressure. As for Beglov, he was one of many pro-Kremlin candidates who ran as independents, trying to distance themselves from a party whose approval ratings are now about 30%, what with all the discontent from the raising of the retirement age, the deteriorating income, and the corruption scandals.
Despite the overall Kremlin victory, the extremely low turnout and the employment of the entire administrative machinery in favor of the pro-Kremlin candidates, the opposition parties, from leftist to liberal, in fact managed to strengthen their position across most regions.
Putin's party, United Russia was defeated in the Khabarovsk region in the Far East, only getting 2 seats at the local parliament. This is the first Russian region that won't be controlled by the Kremlin. The Liberal-Democratic Party won there, a nationalis faction headed by the (in)famous Vladimir Zhirinovsky. The Kremlin's defeat there is in no way less painful, despite the fact that the liberals-democrats are basically Kremlin's allies, ergo not a real opposition.
But the main shock came from Moscow itself, where the opposition, including communists and other leftist parties, plus the liberal Yabloko party, took a total of 20 seats. This was largely due to the so called "smart vote", inspired by Navalny. Basically, it was voting for candidates that looked like the best chance to unseat the incumbents. In many cases, the voters had to hold their nose and vote for commies and others they didn't particularly like, just for the sake of hurting Putin. This way the communists ended up with 13 seats (compared to 5 until now). The same way, the leader of Putin's Moscow organization was unseated, losing to an obscure communist candidate.
There were some hilarious cases as well, like the police removing a drunken man from one of the polling stations in South Moscow, who was trying to "vote for Putin".
The president's name wasn't featured on the ballots of course, but the Moscow election was an eloquent hit on the system of governance he has established. More opposition presence in the local administrations means the anti-Kremlin forces will now have a platform to be heard. United Russia may still have an informal majority, and the pro-Kremlin mayor Sergey Sobyanin may still be able to pass whatever decisions he likes, but the "smart vote" has evidently worked well. The problem is, the opposition is too diverse and not necessarily united very much. Besides, many of their representatives could still be bought off.
Still, the result is an indication for a crisis in Putin's political system. It shows the Kremlin needs to urgently reassess its strategy, before the next election is not too far away, and it's way more important. Sure, the local election may not be a clear indicator about the opposition's strength at this point, moreover the "smart vote" doesn't exactly give an idea of people's real moods and political preferences, but Putin's waning popularity is already becoming too apparent to be ignored.
(no subject)
Date: 18/9/19 01:18 (UTC)Heh.
May things get worse for him, and better for most of the rest of the currently-Russian people(s).