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talkpoliticsROSU deploys in north Kosovo, Vucic orders full combat alert
This incident happened about two months ago. The Kosovo special forces (ROSU) entered the mostly ethnic Serb municipalities in Northern Kosovo. Some shoot-out ensued, resulting in a few wounded Serbs as well as a couple of UNMIK diplomats being arrested. One turned out to be a Russian citizen. The local Serbs reported the Kosovo forces had made mass arrests of Serbs, purportedly on charges of corruption. At some point the Serbs tried to block the way of the special forces by raising barricades. It was a bit of a mess really.
Curiously, KFOR (the NATO peace-keeping forces) didn't move a finger, although they're supposed to, well, keep the peace there. Their excuse? We don't deal with Kosovo's internal matters, and corruption is an internal matter. Very nice.
Sure enough, Belgrade's reaction was swift. President Vucic quickly convened the national security council and ordered raising the readiness level of the Serbian armed forces, calling for the EU to react. In turn, Kosovo PM Haradinai tweeed an assurance that the spec op was merely directed at organized crime and those police and customs officers who were in cahoots with it. Nothing more.
But there's more, of course. One'd wonder who's behind the sudden deterioration of the situation in Northern Kosovo. The timing is kind of weird. The previous day, Serbian president Vucic had delivered a speech that was largely seen as "relatively reconciliatory", in that he urged the Serbian parliament to finally acknowledge that Kosovo was lost to Serbia, and there was no point in trying to reverse that fact. He said any further attempts to get Kosovo back was doomed, and Serbia had practically lost all control in that region, save for some influence in health-care and education.
By the way, he also made a point about the impending demographic catastrophe in the region, citing some calculations that by 2050 the Albanians living in the Balkans would practically be on par with the Serbs, and in another 50 years they'd outnumber them by 2 to 1.
Vucic also suggested that his people should make a choice about Kosovo: either freeze the conflict for the time being, or push things further and seek a long-term, albeit painful solution. As one could expect, his words were met with a storm of accusations that he wanted to sell Kosovo away for a EU membership. Especially since some new ideas have been floated around lately, about a possible territorial exchange between Kosovo and Serbia. Which many in the latter country are viewing as treason.
To put this in context. There've been negotiations for a year now about a possible exchange of Serb-dominated areas in Northern Kosovo in return for Albanian-dominated areas in Southern Serbia. Most Serbian citizens are opposed to this plan, as well as some EU countries, including Germany and the UK. The concern there is that this could set a dangerous precedent that could be exploited by other countries having similar problems with neighbors. As for Serbia's main ally Russia, so far their position is that this is a matter that should be solved only between Belgrade and Pristina without any external involvement. Their only condition is that the existing bilateral agreements should be honored, including the UN resolutions that currently regulate Kosovo's status.
Btw, some experts believe this new batch of Balkan problems benefits both the rulers of Serbia and Kosovo. They argue that both sides are trying to promote the narrative that unless there's a deal for territorial exchange, such conflicts would continue to linger. On the other hand, no one could say right now which territories exactly should be exchanged. When Kosovo first declared independence in 2008, they were adamant that no concessions should be given to Serbia. So now when we're talking about a potential territorial exchange and border correction, this is supposed to be perceived in Serbia as some kind of victory, because some concession from Kosovo is better than no concession.
In truth, given the strong Western pressure, Serbia has been able to resist forcefully recognizing Kosovo, only thanks to Russia's firm position. Which is why now Vucic needs clarity about Putin's position. But the latter doesn't seem to be in a hurry to state one, so far only settling for citing the 12400 UNSC resolution from 1999, where Kosovo is viewed as an integral part of Serbia. It's unclear then, if a territorial exchange is to happen, how it'd match that resolution. By the way, it's likely that this renewed recent tension is meant to help bypass that resolution.
The thing is, the Albanians are already a key factor in a number of Balkan countries. They obviously rule Albania and Kosovo, but they're also key for forming any government in neighboring Montenegro and Macedonia.
In April, supporters of the idea for Great Albania raised a huge Albanian flag over Samoel's Fortress atop Ohrid, Macedonia. This shows that the scope of their claims has started expanding. Modern Albanian nationalism goes hand in hand with redrawing the map of the Balkans, and this spells trouble. The Albanians are feeling empowered, they believe the future belongs to them. How naive that notion is, is another topic. The fact is, they're acting upon it.
In order to consolidate Kosovo's status as a sovereign state, and earn international recognition, possibly even adding the Serbian valley of Presevo to the equation, the rulers in Pristina are now demonstrating a readiness for map redrawing, and a territorial exchange with Serbia. They've always mosly relied on US support for that. But the plan still remains in the area of fantasy, mostly because the EU remains reluctant to support it (and Germany is strongly against). In result, at the May meeting on the Western Balkans in Berlin (where both Macron and Merkel were present), Kosovo's president Thaci disparagingly commented that Europe has shown once again how weak it is, and how Kosovo would again have to rely on America as the key factor for the historic process of Kosovo independence.
I should probably remind here that in 2014 Kosovo and Albania signed a cooperation and strategic partnership agreement, and they've been regularly conducting joint cabinet meetings of the two governments. An idea was promoted about merging the two countries' diplomatic embassies in a number of countries, supposedly for the purpose of minimizing their expenses (very convenient). Shortly after that, Albania granted ethnic Albanians from Kosovo and Southern Serbia an opportunity to work in Albania without any restrictions. In 2017, the Albanian leaders (jointly, and not for the first time) made a coordinated effort, Albanian president Rama, Kosovo president Thaci and Southern Serbia Albanian leader Musliu simultaneously promoting the idea that if the Western Balkans' EU perspective continued to wane, that would precipitate an effor for Albania-Kosovo unification, and further, of uniting all ethnic Albanians in a single country (this includes those in Serbia, Macedonia, Greece and Montenegro). Rama said he would prefer a EU membership rather than a Great Albania, but we know better than that.
The notion that if the Euro integration gets stagnated for the West Balkans this would mean a new destabilization of the region, has been actively promoted by Albanians across all borders. Of course it's doubtful they'd venture to do it without US and EU sanction, and it's very unlikely that the great powers would agree to such a thing because indeed it would blow up the whole Balkan powder keg, starting with the dissolution of Bosnia-Herzegovina.
Exactly how Kosovo views a potential territorial exchange with Serbia is evident from Thaci's latest statements from his recent visit in Albania. He vowed that he'd make possible the adding of the Presevo valley to Kosovo, hopefully without giving any concessions to Serbia in return, and he also included some strategic sites such as the Trepca mine and Gazivoda dam into his plans. He also said that achieving de jure independence for Kosovo is no longer enough, he'll be now seeking the unification of all Albanians and removing all borders between them. He also promised this new task would be easier than the actual declaration of independence that Kosovo did a decade ago.
It seems the EU is still hoping to be responsible for maintaining peace and stability throughout the entire territory of Europe, including the Western Balkans. However, it turns out some countries in the region, especially the Albanian countries, are mostly relying on the American project for the region, and ignoring the EU one. Turkey, btw, which started pushing for EU membership soon after it was admitted into NATO, is now doing a major shift away from that route, being ruled by an Islamist regime. And there's a rising chorus in the EU insisting Turkey should forever be cut off from that road. Many believe the emerging Albanian aspirations will ultimately lead to creeping Islamization throughout the region (think Bosnia, and the Salafist influence there), thus forming a strong Turkish-Albanian axis at the expense of the surrounding Orthodox Christian nations. And that would force the EU to review its approach to Albania and Kosovo, compelling it to start only viewing them as potential partners rather than its future members.
This incident happened about two months ago. The Kosovo special forces (ROSU) entered the mostly ethnic Serb municipalities in Northern Kosovo. Some shoot-out ensued, resulting in a few wounded Serbs as well as a couple of UNMIK diplomats being arrested. One turned out to be a Russian citizen. The local Serbs reported the Kosovo forces had made mass arrests of Serbs, purportedly on charges of corruption. At some point the Serbs tried to block the way of the special forces by raising barricades. It was a bit of a mess really.
Curiously, KFOR (the NATO peace-keeping forces) didn't move a finger, although they're supposed to, well, keep the peace there. Their excuse? We don't deal with Kosovo's internal matters, and corruption is an internal matter. Very nice.
Sure enough, Belgrade's reaction was swift. President Vucic quickly convened the national security council and ordered raising the readiness level of the Serbian armed forces, calling for the EU to react. In turn, Kosovo PM Haradinai tweeed an assurance that the spec op was merely directed at organized crime and those police and customs officers who were in cahoots with it. Nothing more.
But there's more, of course. One'd wonder who's behind the sudden deterioration of the situation in Northern Kosovo. The timing is kind of weird. The previous day, Serbian president Vucic had delivered a speech that was largely seen as "relatively reconciliatory", in that he urged the Serbian parliament to finally acknowledge that Kosovo was lost to Serbia, and there was no point in trying to reverse that fact. He said any further attempts to get Kosovo back was doomed, and Serbia had practically lost all control in that region, save for some influence in health-care and education.
By the way, he also made a point about the impending demographic catastrophe in the region, citing some calculations that by 2050 the Albanians living in the Balkans would practically be on par with the Serbs, and in another 50 years they'd outnumber them by 2 to 1.
Vucic also suggested that his people should make a choice about Kosovo: either freeze the conflict for the time being, or push things further and seek a long-term, albeit painful solution. As one could expect, his words were met with a storm of accusations that he wanted to sell Kosovo away for a EU membership. Especially since some new ideas have been floated around lately, about a possible territorial exchange between Kosovo and Serbia. Which many in the latter country are viewing as treason.
To put this in context. There've been negotiations for a year now about a possible exchange of Serb-dominated areas in Northern Kosovo in return for Albanian-dominated areas in Southern Serbia. Most Serbian citizens are opposed to this plan, as well as some EU countries, including Germany and the UK. The concern there is that this could set a dangerous precedent that could be exploited by other countries having similar problems with neighbors. As for Serbia's main ally Russia, so far their position is that this is a matter that should be solved only between Belgrade and Pristina without any external involvement. Their only condition is that the existing bilateral agreements should be honored, including the UN resolutions that currently regulate Kosovo's status.
Btw, some experts believe this new batch of Balkan problems benefits both the rulers of Serbia and Kosovo. They argue that both sides are trying to promote the narrative that unless there's a deal for territorial exchange, such conflicts would continue to linger. On the other hand, no one could say right now which territories exactly should be exchanged. When Kosovo first declared independence in 2008, they were adamant that no concessions should be given to Serbia. So now when we're talking about a potential territorial exchange and border correction, this is supposed to be perceived in Serbia as some kind of victory, because some concession from Kosovo is better than no concession.
In truth, given the strong Western pressure, Serbia has been able to resist forcefully recognizing Kosovo, only thanks to Russia's firm position. Which is why now Vucic needs clarity about Putin's position. But the latter doesn't seem to be in a hurry to state one, so far only settling for citing the 12400 UNSC resolution from 1999, where Kosovo is viewed as an integral part of Serbia. It's unclear then, if a territorial exchange is to happen, how it'd match that resolution. By the way, it's likely that this renewed recent tension is meant to help bypass that resolution.
The thing is, the Albanians are already a key factor in a number of Balkan countries. They obviously rule Albania and Kosovo, but they're also key for forming any government in neighboring Montenegro and Macedonia.
In April, supporters of the idea for Great Albania raised a huge Albanian flag over Samoel's Fortress atop Ohrid, Macedonia. This shows that the scope of their claims has started expanding. Modern Albanian nationalism goes hand in hand with redrawing the map of the Balkans, and this spells trouble. The Albanians are feeling empowered, they believe the future belongs to them. How naive that notion is, is another topic. The fact is, they're acting upon it.
In order to consolidate Kosovo's status as a sovereign state, and earn international recognition, possibly even adding the Serbian valley of Presevo to the equation, the rulers in Pristina are now demonstrating a readiness for map redrawing, and a territorial exchange with Serbia. They've always mosly relied on US support for that. But the plan still remains in the area of fantasy, mostly because the EU remains reluctant to support it (and Germany is strongly against). In result, at the May meeting on the Western Balkans in Berlin (where both Macron and Merkel were present), Kosovo's president Thaci disparagingly commented that Europe has shown once again how weak it is, and how Kosovo would again have to rely on America as the key factor for the historic process of Kosovo independence.
I should probably remind here that in 2014 Kosovo and Albania signed a cooperation and strategic partnership agreement, and they've been regularly conducting joint cabinet meetings of the two governments. An idea was promoted about merging the two countries' diplomatic embassies in a number of countries, supposedly for the purpose of minimizing their expenses (very convenient). Shortly after that, Albania granted ethnic Albanians from Kosovo and Southern Serbia an opportunity to work in Albania without any restrictions. In 2017, the Albanian leaders (jointly, and not for the first time) made a coordinated effort, Albanian president Rama, Kosovo president Thaci and Southern Serbia Albanian leader Musliu simultaneously promoting the idea that if the Western Balkans' EU perspective continued to wane, that would precipitate an effor for Albania-Kosovo unification, and further, of uniting all ethnic Albanians in a single country (this includes those in Serbia, Macedonia, Greece and Montenegro). Rama said he would prefer a EU membership rather than a Great Albania, but we know better than that.
The notion that if the Euro integration gets stagnated for the West Balkans this would mean a new destabilization of the region, has been actively promoted by Albanians across all borders. Of course it's doubtful they'd venture to do it without US and EU sanction, and it's very unlikely that the great powers would agree to such a thing because indeed it would blow up the whole Balkan powder keg, starting with the dissolution of Bosnia-Herzegovina.
Exactly how Kosovo views a potential territorial exchange with Serbia is evident from Thaci's latest statements from his recent visit in Albania. He vowed that he'd make possible the adding of the Presevo valley to Kosovo, hopefully without giving any concessions to Serbia in return, and he also included some strategic sites such as the Trepca mine and Gazivoda dam into his plans. He also said that achieving de jure independence for Kosovo is no longer enough, he'll be now seeking the unification of all Albanians and removing all borders between them. He also promised this new task would be easier than the actual declaration of independence that Kosovo did a decade ago.
It seems the EU is still hoping to be responsible for maintaining peace and stability throughout the entire territory of Europe, including the Western Balkans. However, it turns out some countries in the region, especially the Albanian countries, are mostly relying on the American project for the region, and ignoring the EU one. Turkey, btw, which started pushing for EU membership soon after it was admitted into NATO, is now doing a major shift away from that route, being ruled by an Islamist regime. And there's a rising chorus in the EU insisting Turkey should forever be cut off from that road. Many believe the emerging Albanian aspirations will ultimately lead to creeping Islamization throughout the region (think Bosnia, and the Salafist influence there), thus forming a strong Turkish-Albanian axis at the expense of the surrounding Orthodox Christian nations. And that would force the EU to review its approach to Albania and Kosovo, compelling it to start only viewing them as potential partners rather than its future members.
