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11/6/19 15:53![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
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talkpoliticsTurkey makes deal to buy Russian-made S-400 air defense system
We've talked about this before. Turkey wants to buy Russian missile systems, and predictably, America ain't happy about it. The deal could bring Turkey a new batch of US sanctions, and, if not a NATO exit, at least an effective limiting of its membership in the alliance. Now Erdogan stands before a choice he doesn't want to make. And the biggest winner of this row is, of course, Russia.
"No one should expect of us to swallow back what we've already spat out", Erdogan, in his typical style, recently said about the purchase. It's a done deal, essentially. And there's no way Turkey could reverse their decision, regardless of all the US and NATO invective.
Still, no matter how much Erdogan may insist that Turkey is free to choose the best defense systems for itself, there's much more to this story than a mere sale-purchase of a missile system. It'll certainly have long-lasting repercussions that go way beyond defense. The deal is quite evidently part of Turkey's geopolitical re-orientation. Indeed, if the C400 system is installed there, Turkey's divorce from the West would become reality.
The rift with the West is happening just as Turkey is getting closer to Russia, mostly thanks to their cooperation in Syria (you know, converging interests tend to forge friendships). This expanding friendship will have direct effects on Europe as well, both in terms of trade, energy (the Turk Stream project), and security in the Black Sea region, where Russia and Turkey are aligned together to counter the North-Atlantic geopolitical presence.
Less than a year after Trump slapped sanctions on Turkey because of the arrest of US pastor Andrew Brunson and brought the Turkish economy to the brink of financial collapse, the two nominal NATO allies are in a relationship crisis that could potentially bring a long-lasting rift between them. The C400 deal is worth 2.5 billion dollars (much cheaper than the US-backed alternatives like Patriot) - but it could cost Turkey much dearer. I'm talking of more and more US sanctions, exclusion from the F35 program, and, if not being expelled from NATO, at least a substantial curbing of the Turkish membership in NATO. The clock is ticking fast, because the plan is that Russia should start installing the first C400 elements in Turkey as soon as July.
Turkey's claims that there's no conflict between its NATO commitments and its purchase of Russian defense systems sound rather unconvincing. Even if in theory C400 was technically compatible with NATO's air defense systems, or could be "isolated" by it, the concern is that the Russia system would still be able to "spy" on the F35 system, and compromise its security. The moods around NATO could clearly be sensed in the recent statements by Gen Curtis Scaparrotti, commander of the US and NATO forces in Europe, who urged Turkey to "reconsider" their intentions.
The ultimatums coming from DC are even more telling: Turkey must choose between C400 and F35, because there's no way it could have both. The Pentagon has already stopped the F35 supplies and is threatening to withdraw from the program. Turkey has invested 1.25 billion dollars there so far, and it could lose a further 12 billion if its companies fail to receive the promised funds. Besides, new sanctions are imminent, as per a US law that stipulates penalties for military cooperation between NATO and Russia. And that's the last thing Turkey needs right now. Given its deteriorating economy, a potential political crisis with the US could bring an even deeper financial collapse to Turkey. The best option for the Turkish politicians seems to be to side with the Americans rather than pushing forward with the Russian missile system.
The problem is, the US and Turkey are in a stalemate, with very little room for maneuvering. Erdogan doesn't seem willing to budge, and he's probably thinking Trump would intervene in the last minute, using his presidential prerogatives to save his ally from punishment. Which is theoretically possible of course, but very unlikely, given the tiny number of friends Turkey is left with in Washington as of now, and how dominant the anti-Turkish moods are in the Pentagon these days.
The thing is, there might be no way back for Erdogan at this point, even if he wanted to quit the C400 deal - unless he wants to severely infuriate Putin, and bring even bigger problems upon himself, especially in Syria. There are speculations that Turkey could try to avert the imminent divorce with the US and NATO by proposing to keep the Russian system as a backup without using it, or re-sell it to a third party, like Azerbaijan. But that might not be enough to avert the crisis, because the US is not just opposed to the installation of the C400 system, but its purchase altogether.
Even by the most favourable scenario, where Trump faces Congress and saves Turkey from the sanctions, Erdogan's government would still be unable to bypass the dilemma between a Russian missile system and US fighter jets. At various points in its recent history, Turkey has tried to balance between Russia and the West, and this is definitely one of them. When Erdogan agreed to buy the C400 system from Russia, it didn't occur to him this would be an "either-or" choice, and he was hoping he'd keep being able to balance. But now he has to make a choice he doesn't want to make.
In the meantime, Putin, without firing a single bullet, without sending a single tank or using a single Internet troll, is about to severely undermine the NATO unity by knocking out a major piece of its structure. He's skillfully using Erdogan's personal insult and indignation towards the US to lure him into his orbit of influence, and Erdogan is taking the bait. What's left is to now sharply drag the fishing rod, and Turkey will be his.
Doubtless, Russia's main purpose is to dismantle the Western alliance, of which Turkey is an integral part. So far Putin has been successful in pulling Turkey out. Some Turkish politicians seem to believe this new partnership is mostly dictated by strategic and pragmatic relations, rather than a genuine desire to forge a new alliance. But things have gone so far that the question now is if Erdogan is ready for a drastic divorce with NATO and the US in the name of a questionable partnership with Putin.
The relations between these two powers do have their limitations. Their interests don't necessarily converge in many corners of the region, from Georgia to Syria. Turkey and Russia will sooner or later face serious differences somewhere, and this will cool off their romance. Until then, though, Putin could bask in the feeling that he's the biggest winner from the sharp freezing of the Turko-American relations.
We've talked about this before. Turkey wants to buy Russian missile systems, and predictably, America ain't happy about it. The deal could bring Turkey a new batch of US sanctions, and, if not a NATO exit, at least an effective limiting of its membership in the alliance. Now Erdogan stands before a choice he doesn't want to make. And the biggest winner of this row is, of course, Russia.
"No one should expect of us to swallow back what we've already spat out", Erdogan, in his typical style, recently said about the purchase. It's a done deal, essentially. And there's no way Turkey could reverse their decision, regardless of all the US and NATO invective.
Still, no matter how much Erdogan may insist that Turkey is free to choose the best defense systems for itself, there's much more to this story than a mere sale-purchase of a missile system. It'll certainly have long-lasting repercussions that go way beyond defense. The deal is quite evidently part of Turkey's geopolitical re-orientation. Indeed, if the C400 system is installed there, Turkey's divorce from the West would become reality.
The rift with the West is happening just as Turkey is getting closer to Russia, mostly thanks to their cooperation in Syria (you know, converging interests tend to forge friendships). This expanding friendship will have direct effects on Europe as well, both in terms of trade, energy (the Turk Stream project), and security in the Black Sea region, where Russia and Turkey are aligned together to counter the North-Atlantic geopolitical presence.
Less than a year after Trump slapped sanctions on Turkey because of the arrest of US pastor Andrew Brunson and brought the Turkish economy to the brink of financial collapse, the two nominal NATO allies are in a relationship crisis that could potentially bring a long-lasting rift between them. The C400 deal is worth 2.5 billion dollars (much cheaper than the US-backed alternatives like Patriot) - but it could cost Turkey much dearer. I'm talking of more and more US sanctions, exclusion from the F35 program, and, if not being expelled from NATO, at least a substantial curbing of the Turkish membership in NATO. The clock is ticking fast, because the plan is that Russia should start installing the first C400 elements in Turkey as soon as July.
Turkey's claims that there's no conflict between its NATO commitments and its purchase of Russian defense systems sound rather unconvincing. Even if in theory C400 was technically compatible with NATO's air defense systems, or could be "isolated" by it, the concern is that the Russia system would still be able to "spy" on the F35 system, and compromise its security. The moods around NATO could clearly be sensed in the recent statements by Gen Curtis Scaparrotti, commander of the US and NATO forces in Europe, who urged Turkey to "reconsider" their intentions.
The ultimatums coming from DC are even more telling: Turkey must choose between C400 and F35, because there's no way it could have both. The Pentagon has already stopped the F35 supplies and is threatening to withdraw from the program. Turkey has invested 1.25 billion dollars there so far, and it could lose a further 12 billion if its companies fail to receive the promised funds. Besides, new sanctions are imminent, as per a US law that stipulates penalties for military cooperation between NATO and Russia. And that's the last thing Turkey needs right now. Given its deteriorating economy, a potential political crisis with the US could bring an even deeper financial collapse to Turkey. The best option for the Turkish politicians seems to be to side with the Americans rather than pushing forward with the Russian missile system.
The problem is, the US and Turkey are in a stalemate, with very little room for maneuvering. Erdogan doesn't seem willing to budge, and he's probably thinking Trump would intervene in the last minute, using his presidential prerogatives to save his ally from punishment. Which is theoretically possible of course, but very unlikely, given the tiny number of friends Turkey is left with in Washington as of now, and how dominant the anti-Turkish moods are in the Pentagon these days.
The thing is, there might be no way back for Erdogan at this point, even if he wanted to quit the C400 deal - unless he wants to severely infuriate Putin, and bring even bigger problems upon himself, especially in Syria. There are speculations that Turkey could try to avert the imminent divorce with the US and NATO by proposing to keep the Russian system as a backup without using it, or re-sell it to a third party, like Azerbaijan. But that might not be enough to avert the crisis, because the US is not just opposed to the installation of the C400 system, but its purchase altogether.
Even by the most favourable scenario, where Trump faces Congress and saves Turkey from the sanctions, Erdogan's government would still be unable to bypass the dilemma between a Russian missile system and US fighter jets. At various points in its recent history, Turkey has tried to balance between Russia and the West, and this is definitely one of them. When Erdogan agreed to buy the C400 system from Russia, it didn't occur to him this would be an "either-or" choice, and he was hoping he'd keep being able to balance. But now he has to make a choice he doesn't want to make.
In the meantime, Putin, without firing a single bullet, without sending a single tank or using a single Internet troll, is about to severely undermine the NATO unity by knocking out a major piece of its structure. He's skillfully using Erdogan's personal insult and indignation towards the US to lure him into his orbit of influence, and Erdogan is taking the bait. What's left is to now sharply drag the fishing rod, and Turkey will be his.
Doubtless, Russia's main purpose is to dismantle the Western alliance, of which Turkey is an integral part. So far Putin has been successful in pulling Turkey out. Some Turkish politicians seem to believe this new partnership is mostly dictated by strategic and pragmatic relations, rather than a genuine desire to forge a new alliance. But things have gone so far that the question now is if Erdogan is ready for a drastic divorce with NATO and the US in the name of a questionable partnership with Putin.
The relations between these two powers do have their limitations. Their interests don't necessarily converge in many corners of the region, from Georgia to Syria. Turkey and Russia will sooner or later face serious differences somewhere, and this will cool off their romance. Until then, though, Putin could bask in the feeling that he's the biggest winner from the sharp freezing of the Turko-American relations.
