Germany needs a change
25/4/19 13:46![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
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talkpoliticsThis year may mark the moment when Germany, the biggest European economy finally recognizes its own shortcomings. There's a sense that Germany is living through the last days of an old era and it needs change. Sure, the country remains politically stable. But there's a feeling that Germans are not particularly interested about the challenges to their long-term prosperity.
The waning of Merkel's power is at the center of all this. She led Germany through a series of global crises, from the 2008 downfall, to the Greek default, to the immigrant wave, and the various threats to the euro. She was an advocate for austerity, and still the German juggernaut kept going, and sustaining the stability of the whole continent. Her successor Karenbauer is still an enigma. Her biggest achievement so far has been to block an anti-Merkel candidate from taking over the HDU.
Apart from politics, the technologic revolution is the other factor that will reshuffle the landscape. The German automobile industry, from BMW to Mercedes to Porsche, directly employs about 800 thousand people, and makes exports for 240+ billion euro annually. But the country that developed the first modern car in 1886 is still stalling its transition to electric vehicles. And this causes concerns about how long this industry will keep its domination on the global market for luxury cars, now that it's facing a serious challenge from China and others.
The sluggish banking sector is another problem. The attempts of the ministry of finance to push for the merge of the once mighty Deutsche Bank with Commerzbank, might still fail to save either. And without a viable banking giant, who'll be funding the German manufacturers?
The situation right now is such that the times when Europe's first economy used to amaze with high growth, have gone. The German finance minister now says the period of slow growth should be a wake-up call, and new ways should be found to stimulate the economy.
Germany, the world's third largest car producer, is more exposed to the negative effects of the global trade war than its competitors. The growth forecast for this year was downgraded, given the worries about a slow-down across all Europe. In the meantime, G20 countries such as Brazil and Italy are now following Trump's example at navel-gazing and turning to the inside, and adopting nationalist, isolationist programs. And this leaves Germany isolated and exposed to foreign influences, which in turn results in such ulcerous manifestations like domestic populism.
Still, not all looks that bad. Berlin is flourishing, and small and middle-sized businesses remain innovative and highly specialized in their respective niches. Germany is the third most automatized country in the world. The shift toward clean energy is turning Germany into a hub for renewables. So not all is lost. But Germans should do more effort than they're probably used to, and be even smarter.
The waning of Merkel's power is at the center of all this. She led Germany through a series of global crises, from the 2008 downfall, to the Greek default, to the immigrant wave, and the various threats to the euro. She was an advocate for austerity, and still the German juggernaut kept going, and sustaining the stability of the whole continent. Her successor Karenbauer is still an enigma. Her biggest achievement so far has been to block an anti-Merkel candidate from taking over the HDU.
Apart from politics, the technologic revolution is the other factor that will reshuffle the landscape. The German automobile industry, from BMW to Mercedes to Porsche, directly employs about 800 thousand people, and makes exports for 240+ billion euro annually. But the country that developed the first modern car in 1886 is still stalling its transition to electric vehicles. And this causes concerns about how long this industry will keep its domination on the global market for luxury cars, now that it's facing a serious challenge from China and others.
The sluggish banking sector is another problem. The attempts of the ministry of finance to push for the merge of the once mighty Deutsche Bank with Commerzbank, might still fail to save either. And without a viable banking giant, who'll be funding the German manufacturers?
The situation right now is such that the times when Europe's first economy used to amaze with high growth, have gone. The German finance minister now says the period of slow growth should be a wake-up call, and new ways should be found to stimulate the economy.
Germany, the world's third largest car producer, is more exposed to the negative effects of the global trade war than its competitors. The growth forecast for this year was downgraded, given the worries about a slow-down across all Europe. In the meantime, G20 countries such as Brazil and Italy are now following Trump's example at navel-gazing and turning to the inside, and adopting nationalist, isolationist programs. And this leaves Germany isolated and exposed to foreign influences, which in turn results in such ulcerous manifestations like domestic populism.
Still, not all looks that bad. Berlin is flourishing, and small and middle-sized businesses remain innovative and highly specialized in their respective niches. Germany is the third most automatized country in the world. The shift toward clean energy is turning Germany into a hub for renewables. So not all is lost. But Germans should do more effort than they're probably used to, and be even smarter.
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Date: 26/4/19 11:45 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 26/4/19 13:06 (UTC)