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talkpoliticsThere was a time when the US used to send its top diplomats to do tours around Central and East Europe almost every month. Once Poland, Hungary and the rest of those post-Soviet-bloc countries joined NATO and the EU, the US kind of adopted a "mission accomplished" approach, and turned its focus to Asia.
Now through Mike Pompeo's tour in Hungary, Slovakia and Poland, the US is giving signs of a return to the region. The official intention is to fill the vacuum that remained after America's withdrawal and allowed Russia and China to step in. Pompeo's main messages were about the dangers of Russian gas and Chinese technology, especially in countries with questionable reputation, corruption-wise (seen as a vessel for creeping Russian and Chinese influence), and the long-term repercussions of the erosion of the rule of law. The US diplomatic surge on EU's eastern flank comes at a time when the US and EU are closer than ever to an agreement for new sanctions against Russia because of that incident with the detained Ukrainian ships in the Sea of Azov.
The stated purpose of Pompeo's visit is to counteract the Chinese and Russian influence in Central Europe. This has become the US priority under Trump. And it means putting geopolitics above all, as is shown by the muted US response to the swing towards more non-liberal regimes, and the withdrawal from democracy in some countries in the region.
While Pompeo's visit is an attempt to restore some of America's positions in the region and nip the Chinese and Russian ambitions in the bud, for the host countries it was like a symbolic legitimisation of their regimes at a time when their image within the EU has been badly tarnished. Hungary and Poland are undergoing penal procedures by Brussels for threatening basic EU principles like the rule of law and separation of powers, and Slovakia's reputation suffered a serious blow from the murder of journalist Jan Kuciak who had investigated alleged mafia ties of top government officials.
Apparently, none of this is stopping Trump from seeking active involvement in the region. Pompeo was clear in his statements, he said that too often the US had been absent from Central Europe, and that was unacceptable. Now there've been 14 diplomatic visits for the first two years ot Trump's administration alone - compared to close to zilch in Obama's two terms (okay, Hillary Clinton did visit Budapest once, and the latest POTUS visit to Bratislava was in 2006).
Under Obama, the White House used to react with hostility to Victor Orban's attempts to curb political rights, and did not approve of the assault on democracy in Hungary, therefore contacts with Budapest were scarce. The US had a tendency to pontificate and wage a finger at countries, and that didn't bring much benefit.
Now the new course of action is involvement, although it's doubtful to what extent that works. Both the US and Hungary have changed their approach in recent years. Obama used to openly criticise Orban's policies, while Hungary was pretending to negotiate on the controversial issues. Now with Trump, the US has shut up and turned a blind eye on critical subjects concerning democracy and the supremacy of law, and chosen to focus on geopolitics instead. In turn, Hungary has started openly opposing the US, and "emancipating" itself. For instance, Hungary blocked all possible lanes of cooperation between Ukraine and NATO, it banned the Central European University in Budapest (Soros, you know), despite pressure from Washington, and finally rejected the US demand for the extradition of two Russian arms dealers, returning them to Moscow instead. If there was something like a 1-1 draw under Obama, now the score is Orban 3, Trump 0.
It's unclear if Pompeo has come even close to scoring a consolation goal with his warnings that Hungary should refrain from supporting the extension of the Turkish Stream project to Central Europe (the US considers this project a tool for the spreading of Russian influence further into the continent). Same about the warnings to be careful about Huawei (they're building a logistical hub in Hungary, and claiming to cover almost 70% of the country's population). The US is saying that using Huawei equipment could be used for espionage, and would "hinder our relations with our partners". Hungary's response was that the West is "hypocritical" about China and Russia, since it isn't Central Eurpean countries that's building the Nord Stream 2 (between Russia and Germany) alongside Gazprom, and German and British companies are Huawei's main partners in Hungary. They have a point.
Naturally, Pompeo's message was more warmly welcomed in Poland, one of America's staunches allies (puppies?), and a vocal opponent to Nord Stream 2 (but of course; who would want to be bypassed by the major energy highways?) The Polish government is considering to block Huawei from developing the local 5G infrastructure, and lat month a top Huawei official was arrested in Poland on espionage charges. It's logical to assume that this was done to gain America's trust, and since the step could potentially destroy the Polish-Chinese relations, it must have been approved from the highest levels. They've simply weighed their options, and chosen a side.
Another sign of Poland's intention to preserve their close ties to the US is their decision to co-host a Middle East peace conference alongside Washington, an event that's viewed with suspicion by the EU. The US and EU are at odds on the Iranian issue and other issues of contention, and the EU has demonstrated that by sending only low-level representatives at the forum in Warsaw, where Pompeo was joined by VP Mike Pence.
What's more, right now Poland is urging the US to build a permanent military base there, and even suggesting it should be named... wait for it... Fort Trump! There's already a considerable US military presence in Poland as of now, as part of the NATO forces, and soon it'll be increased even more with a few hundred US troops. Still, a possible upgrade through a new base looks unlikely for the time being, due to NATO's concerns that such a placing of the defense involvement on a firmly bilateral basis would erode NATO as a collective defense alliance in the long term.
The risk is that by relying on the US this much, Poland is risking isolating itself within both NATO and the EU. It's notable that former Polish foreign minister Radek Sikorski, who often criticises his country's servile attitude to America, even alleges that Trump wants to use Poland to dismantle the EU, believing it to be a threat to US economic interests. In this sense, the US policy in Central and East Europe could be viewed as somewhat similar to the Russian one, he says. Even if that may be a slight overstatement, America's renewed activity in the region is not necessarily good news.
Now through Mike Pompeo's tour in Hungary, Slovakia and Poland, the US is giving signs of a return to the region. The official intention is to fill the vacuum that remained after America's withdrawal and allowed Russia and China to step in. Pompeo's main messages were about the dangers of Russian gas and Chinese technology, especially in countries with questionable reputation, corruption-wise (seen as a vessel for creeping Russian and Chinese influence), and the long-term repercussions of the erosion of the rule of law. The US diplomatic surge on EU's eastern flank comes at a time when the US and EU are closer than ever to an agreement for new sanctions against Russia because of that incident with the detained Ukrainian ships in the Sea of Azov.
The stated purpose of Pompeo's visit is to counteract the Chinese and Russian influence in Central Europe. This has become the US priority under Trump. And it means putting geopolitics above all, as is shown by the muted US response to the swing towards more non-liberal regimes, and the withdrawal from democracy in some countries in the region.
While Pompeo's visit is an attempt to restore some of America's positions in the region and nip the Chinese and Russian ambitions in the bud, for the host countries it was like a symbolic legitimisation of their regimes at a time when their image within the EU has been badly tarnished. Hungary and Poland are undergoing penal procedures by Brussels for threatening basic EU principles like the rule of law and separation of powers, and Slovakia's reputation suffered a serious blow from the murder of journalist Jan Kuciak who had investigated alleged mafia ties of top government officials.
Apparently, none of this is stopping Trump from seeking active involvement in the region. Pompeo was clear in his statements, he said that too often the US had been absent from Central Europe, and that was unacceptable. Now there've been 14 diplomatic visits for the first two years ot Trump's administration alone - compared to close to zilch in Obama's two terms (okay, Hillary Clinton did visit Budapest once, and the latest POTUS visit to Bratislava was in 2006).
Under Obama, the White House used to react with hostility to Victor Orban's attempts to curb political rights, and did not approve of the assault on democracy in Hungary, therefore contacts with Budapest were scarce. The US had a tendency to pontificate and wage a finger at countries, and that didn't bring much benefit.
Now the new course of action is involvement, although it's doubtful to what extent that works. Both the US and Hungary have changed their approach in recent years. Obama used to openly criticise Orban's policies, while Hungary was pretending to negotiate on the controversial issues. Now with Trump, the US has shut up and turned a blind eye on critical subjects concerning democracy and the supremacy of law, and chosen to focus on geopolitics instead. In turn, Hungary has started openly opposing the US, and "emancipating" itself. For instance, Hungary blocked all possible lanes of cooperation between Ukraine and NATO, it banned the Central European University in Budapest (Soros, you know), despite pressure from Washington, and finally rejected the US demand for the extradition of two Russian arms dealers, returning them to Moscow instead. If there was something like a 1-1 draw under Obama, now the score is Orban 3, Trump 0.
It's unclear if Pompeo has come even close to scoring a consolation goal with his warnings that Hungary should refrain from supporting the extension of the Turkish Stream project to Central Europe (the US considers this project a tool for the spreading of Russian influence further into the continent). Same about the warnings to be careful about Huawei (they're building a logistical hub in Hungary, and claiming to cover almost 70% of the country's population). The US is saying that using Huawei equipment could be used for espionage, and would "hinder our relations with our partners". Hungary's response was that the West is "hypocritical" about China and Russia, since it isn't Central Eurpean countries that's building the Nord Stream 2 (between Russia and Germany) alongside Gazprom, and German and British companies are Huawei's main partners in Hungary. They have a point.
Naturally, Pompeo's message was more warmly welcomed in Poland, one of America's staunches allies (puppies?), and a vocal opponent to Nord Stream 2 (but of course; who would want to be bypassed by the major energy highways?) The Polish government is considering to block Huawei from developing the local 5G infrastructure, and lat month a top Huawei official was arrested in Poland on espionage charges. It's logical to assume that this was done to gain America's trust, and since the step could potentially destroy the Polish-Chinese relations, it must have been approved from the highest levels. They've simply weighed their options, and chosen a side.
Another sign of Poland's intention to preserve their close ties to the US is their decision to co-host a Middle East peace conference alongside Washington, an event that's viewed with suspicion by the EU. The US and EU are at odds on the Iranian issue and other issues of contention, and the EU has demonstrated that by sending only low-level representatives at the forum in Warsaw, where Pompeo was joined by VP Mike Pence.
What's more, right now Poland is urging the US to build a permanent military base there, and even suggesting it should be named... wait for it... Fort Trump! There's already a considerable US military presence in Poland as of now, as part of the NATO forces, and soon it'll be increased even more with a few hundred US troops. Still, a possible upgrade through a new base looks unlikely for the time being, due to NATO's concerns that such a placing of the defense involvement on a firmly bilateral basis would erode NATO as a collective defense alliance in the long term.
The risk is that by relying on the US this much, Poland is risking isolating itself within both NATO and the EU. It's notable that former Polish foreign minister Radek Sikorski, who often criticises his country's servile attitude to America, even alleges that Trump wants to use Poland to dismantle the EU, believing it to be a threat to US economic interests. In this sense, the US policy in Central and East Europe could be viewed as somewhat similar to the Russian one, he says. Even if that may be a slight overstatement, America's renewed activity in the region is not necessarily good news.
