Scarier than Halloween
5/11/18 14:18![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
abomvubuso posting in ![[community profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/community.png){kind=small}
talkpoliticsThere's a holiday coming up that's promising to be even scarier than Halloween, and it's tomorrow. Case in point: people marching on the streets in recent days, dressed up like various other people: Christine Blasey Ford haunted Brett Kavanaugh for quite a while; Sen. Elizabeth Warren got so much into the Native American role that she almost forgot what her entire political career was about (hint: it's not being asshole to even grander assholes); Hillary Clinton crawled from under the pile of books she was signing and decided to join the campaign once more like the good die-hard undead warrior that she is - very fitting for Halloween, don't you think?
The nightmares are plenty around the media as well, where each party is trying to draw attention to the scandals that are more convenient to them. The Dems have tried to boost the expected "blue wave" by using the assault on Kavanaugh's integrity; however, according to the polls, this has only riled up the Republican base and halted the "blue wave" somewhat. Then there was the Elizabeth Warren DNA fiasco, where the public learned that she has a staggering 0.1% Native blood, and that was another Trump PR victory.
Yeah, but then there were the mail bombs targeting prominent leftist figures, and that in turn occupied the spotlight for a while. Even after it transpired that a crazy person with a criminal past was behind the "plot", that still didn't stop the drama. The Democrats are focusing on the President's fitness to take personal responsibility, as he incited violence with his rhetoric.
Of course, no one took responsibility for that shooter either, a fan of Bernie Sanders, who almost murdered a Republican senator last year; Sen Maxine Waters (D) even recently urged the citizens to "confront" Republican politicians in public places, and this resulted in leftist crowds energetically harassing Mitch McConnel, Ted Cruz, etc, while those were having dinner at restaurants or walking on the street. Of course, Sen Waters didn't take responsibility for inciting violence and hatred. The case with the mail bombs is of course a PR win for the Democrats, as it drew the attention and public energy away from discussing the messages of the Republican candidates, and imposed the Democratic narrative.
In turn, the Republicans are trying to draw the attention to two things: Trump's purported economic success, and his tightening of migration control. The 5K strong Caravan has created strong suggestions among the media, before temporarily being supplanted by the bombs plot. Now it's coming back. And Trump's response has scared even some of the hardcore Republicans that he may hurt them by stepping way across the line.
All in all, things are getting messy and nasty just before the elections. And these elections will be quite special for several reasons. First, the media hysteria around the so called culture war. Record turnout is expected solely because of this. Most people have already made up their mind, much along cultural division lines. Therefore the parties are putting efforts not so much to influence the fence-sitters, but to mobilise their own bases as much as possible. And each side is preaching to their own choir as loudly as they can.
Second, the economic elites are mobilised like never before, as well. So far they've donated a shocking 5 billion dollars to their preferred campaigns. In comparison, the 2014 midterms saw 3.8 billion, and 2010 had 3.6 billion. There has never been a 1+ bn leap between two consecutive midterm elections.
Third, this election has divided the US public by gender like never before. The Dems have consistently been more popular with women, and Reps with men, but this divide is now turning into a huge gap. NBC and WSJ polls show that white high-education women support the Dems by 61%, while only 28% support the GOP. In one of the tightest races, Antonio Delgado (D) has a 17% edge with women, and John Faso has a 19% edge with men.
Fourth, this election is also expanding the gap between the large cities and rural areas. Trump, the main protagonist/antagonist (whichever you prefer) in this election saga, is very popular in the heartland and very unpoplar on the two coasts. The city suburbs, caught geographically in the middle betwen pro-Trump America and anti-Trump America, are naturally the most fiercely contested election spots, with an outcome that's hard to predict. The main battle is being fought there.
As a consequence of all the above, the Dems are expected to take back control of Congress, while the Reps will likely retain the Senate. Such a unusual midterm result hasn't occurred since the early 80s. Since the Congress is the lower chamber, it represents America as a nation. And the Senators, the upper chamber, represent each state, i.e. the Senate represents America as a federal union. Since the people who tend to vote Democrat are predominantly concentrated on the coasts, they'd easily win the national vote and take Congress, but they'd find it difficult to win a majority of states, because most of them live in 5-6 large states.
If this tendency keeps going, and Trump is a huge catalyst for that, sooner or later this will bring a constitutional clash of grandiose proportions, which will rock America to its very foundations. After Kavanaugh's confirmation, the left-win has come up with the idea of completely abolishing the Senate as an institution, and now even some moderate Democrats have started hinting at the necessity for constitutional change that would guarantee them more Senate seats by default, and an easier appointment of left-leaning supreme justices. The Republicans are naturally digging deep into their trenches. This is a war that's going to last long and will take many political casualties.
The nightmares are plenty around the media as well, where each party is trying to draw attention to the scandals that are more convenient to them. The Dems have tried to boost the expected "blue wave" by using the assault on Kavanaugh's integrity; however, according to the polls, this has only riled up the Republican base and halted the "blue wave" somewhat. Then there was the Elizabeth Warren DNA fiasco, where the public learned that she has a staggering 0.1% Native blood, and that was another Trump PR victory.
Yeah, but then there were the mail bombs targeting prominent leftist figures, and that in turn occupied the spotlight for a while. Even after it transpired that a crazy person with a criminal past was behind the "plot", that still didn't stop the drama. The Democrats are focusing on the President's fitness to take personal responsibility, as he incited violence with his rhetoric.
Of course, no one took responsibility for that shooter either, a fan of Bernie Sanders, who almost murdered a Republican senator last year; Sen Maxine Waters (D) even recently urged the citizens to "confront" Republican politicians in public places, and this resulted in leftist crowds energetically harassing Mitch McConnel, Ted Cruz, etc, while those were having dinner at restaurants or walking on the street. Of course, Sen Waters didn't take responsibility for inciting violence and hatred. The case with the mail bombs is of course a PR win for the Democrats, as it drew the attention and public energy away from discussing the messages of the Republican candidates, and imposed the Democratic narrative.
In turn, the Republicans are trying to draw the attention to two things: Trump's purported economic success, and his tightening of migration control. The 5K strong Caravan has created strong suggestions among the media, before temporarily being supplanted by the bombs plot. Now it's coming back. And Trump's response has scared even some of the hardcore Republicans that he may hurt them by stepping way across the line.
All in all, things are getting messy and nasty just before the elections. And these elections will be quite special for several reasons. First, the media hysteria around the so called culture war. Record turnout is expected solely because of this. Most people have already made up their mind, much along cultural division lines. Therefore the parties are putting efforts not so much to influence the fence-sitters, but to mobilise their own bases as much as possible. And each side is preaching to their own choir as loudly as they can.
Second, the economic elites are mobilised like never before, as well. So far they've donated a shocking 5 billion dollars to their preferred campaigns. In comparison, the 2014 midterms saw 3.8 billion, and 2010 had 3.6 billion. There has never been a 1+ bn leap between two consecutive midterm elections.
Third, this election has divided the US public by gender like never before. The Dems have consistently been more popular with women, and Reps with men, but this divide is now turning into a huge gap. NBC and WSJ polls show that white high-education women support the Dems by 61%, while only 28% support the GOP. In one of the tightest races, Antonio Delgado (D) has a 17% edge with women, and John Faso has a 19% edge with men.
Fourth, this election is also expanding the gap between the large cities and rural areas. Trump, the main protagonist/antagonist (whichever you prefer) in this election saga, is very popular in the heartland and very unpoplar on the two coasts. The city suburbs, caught geographically in the middle betwen pro-Trump America and anti-Trump America, are naturally the most fiercely contested election spots, with an outcome that's hard to predict. The main battle is being fought there.
As a consequence of all the above, the Dems are expected to take back control of Congress, while the Reps will likely retain the Senate. Such a unusual midterm result hasn't occurred since the early 80s. Since the Congress is the lower chamber, it represents America as a nation. And the Senators, the upper chamber, represent each state, i.e. the Senate represents America as a federal union. Since the people who tend to vote Democrat are predominantly concentrated on the coasts, they'd easily win the national vote and take Congress, but they'd find it difficult to win a majority of states, because most of them live in 5-6 large states.
If this tendency keeps going, and Trump is a huge catalyst for that, sooner or later this will bring a constitutional clash of grandiose proportions, which will rock America to its very foundations. After Kavanaugh's confirmation, the left-win has come up with the idea of completely abolishing the Senate as an institution, and now even some moderate Democrats have started hinting at the necessity for constitutional change that would guarantee them more Senate seats by default, and an easier appointment of left-leaning supreme justices. The Republicans are naturally digging deep into their trenches. This is a war that's going to last long and will take many political casualties.
(no subject)
Date: 5/11/18 12:54 (UTC)If the left set this up, wouldn't they have had it leaving earlier, and arriving before tomorrow?
That way we'd have more pictures/videos of detained kids, people crying, etc. - and less pictures/videos like we've been seeing of thousands of people coming towards the border. The former pictures would probably help the left, I think the latter help the right.
(no subject)
Date: 5/11/18 12:55 (UTC)Also, Soros! It must be him.
(no subject)
Date: 5/11/18 13:09 (UTC)If the Democrats are in control, we'll all go back to not giving a shit about kids being separated from parents and put in cages.
(no subject)
Date: 5/11/18 13:59 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 5/11/18 20:03 (UTC)https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-what-the-midterm-campaign-looks-like-in-your-hometown/?fbclid=IwAR2DpR7kOVxHO3QOjAZhldeO3tgCktf4NvROGTg5sIHwiTiBU9m18AtSfko