Two paths for Covid-19

[airiefairie]

With nearly 100,000 infected and more than 3,300 deaths worldwide, the Covid-19 epidemic continues to grow, but in the last week it seems to have gone in a different direction. Since February 26, the new infected cases from outside China have exceeded those in China, with local epidemics in Italy, Iran and South Korea contributing most to this dynamic. The new cases are mounting every day, and still more, previously unaffected countries confirm the spreading geography of the disease. Along with the health crisis, the shadow of recession is already looming over the global economy as well. The good news is that China has been able to reduce the spreading rate so far, but the key question now is whether Europe, North America, and the rest of the world will manage to deal with the infection as efficiently. The question is not whether it will pass - that will certainly happen within the next three months at most - but rather, how big the damage will be.

According to WHO Director Thedros Ghebreyseus, the local outbreaks can be controlled, as the Chinese experience shows, and "containing the virus must remain a top priority for all countries." This means maintaining and expanding uncomfortable measures such as quarantines, closure of cities, travel control, limiting social contacts, etc.

( Some possible scenarios )