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luzribeiroHere’s the foreign policy question of questions in 2019: Are President Donald Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, all severely weakened at home and with few allies abroad, reckless enough to set off a war with Iran?
Could Trump try to Save himself by Wagging the Dog with an Iran War?
The short answer is yes. The Saudis and the Likud have wanted to do this for many years and the US has been holding them in check. This administration has little motivation to keep them in check. What I think all three fail to understand is that going to war with Iran would be like knocking down a hornets' nest - they might "win", but they are going to get hurt doing it, and that hurt is likely to last for a very long time.
Of course, Americans do love their war presidents. If this one starts a war there's a good chance he'll get re-elected. He had his eye on NK, but China told him in no uncertain terms they would not allow it. That leaves Iran. He's trying to get the rest of the world involved, but Iran is sticking to the nuclear agreement so there's no reason to put pressure on them. If the US tries something they'll be doing it alone. Iran is considerably tougher than Iraq. It will take far longer and require far more money than Iraq did. Likely 5 times as much money. Didn't work via Saddam as proxy, won't work this time either.
Could Trump try to Save himself by Wagging the Dog with an Iran War?
The short answer is yes. The Saudis and the Likud have wanted to do this for many years and the US has been holding them in check. This administration has little motivation to keep them in check. What I think all three fail to understand is that going to war with Iran would be like knocking down a hornets' nest - they might "win", but they are going to get hurt doing it, and that hurt is likely to last for a very long time.
Of course, Americans do love their war presidents. If this one starts a war there's a good chance he'll get re-elected. He had his eye on NK, but China told him in no uncertain terms they would not allow it. That leaves Iran. He's trying to get the rest of the world involved, but Iran is sticking to the nuclear agreement so there's no reason to put pressure on them. If the US tries something they'll be doing it alone. Iran is considerably tougher than Iraq. It will take far longer and require far more money than Iraq did. Likely 5 times as much money. Didn't work via Saddam as proxy, won't work this time either.
