It's like if Texas turned blue overnight: Alberta's elections toss out 44 years of conservative rule

[telemann.livejournal.com]

Stephen Harper's scream

If the NDP wins the Alberta election, it will simply be more proof of climate change. Because Hell will have officially frozen over.

— Allan Pero (@AllanPero) May 6, 2015

There has been precious little coverage about a massive shift to the left in Canada's most conservative region. If Canada has an equivalent to Texas, that would likely be Alberta, notoriously, dependability and consistently conservative. The recent election has ended a 44 year overwhelming conservative run in the provincial parliament. Alberta is the home province for Stephen Harper and many conservative leaders in the Canadian federal government. One political commentator wistfully noted commented on the election results: "Pigs do fly!" And the election has led to several to retire completely out of politics, including Alberta's Premier Jim Prentice, a former member of Tory Prime Minister Stephen Harper's cabinet. Rachel Notley, candidate for New Democratic Party (NDP), will be the new premier. I believe the policies of the NDP are pretty similar to what you find in moderately left parties.


Alberta's new premier, Rachel Notley


The election results are very important to some Americans, because Alberta is an economic force, driven largely by Canada's oil sand deposits, which in turn with a conservative leadership at the local and federal level, led to Canada's decision to abandon the Kyoto protocols, and the country had taken a right turn on climate change.


PC = Progressive conservative in blue, NDP in orange


What will change from this election? Details on the NDP's energy resources were pretty light during the elections, but expect the royalties system to be revamped, to insure transparency, and more equitable return to the citizens of Alberta (in other words, businesses were not paying enough royalties, which were kept low by the conservatives to foster development). Albertans need to have confidence that we are getting a proper return, and that confidence does not exist today because of the lack of accountability and transparency in recent years—people have been kept in the dark.

NDP has said regarding green policies “will take leadership on the issue of climate change and make sure Alberta is part of crafting solutions with stakeholders, other provinces and the federal government.” But NDP is not much different than the conservatives they have replaced. Alberta's previous conservative premier Jim Prentice favored phasing out coal fired electrical power plants. NDP does support a

revolving loan fund for home and small-business energy retrofits, a commitment for broad energy-efficiency policies and for a renewable-energy strategy,” as well as re-allocating funds not spent as part of Ed Stelmach’s carbon capture and storage programs to public transit. While an accelerated phase-out of coal-fired electricity likely offers the most potential for low-cost emissions reductions in Alberta, the elephant in the room remains emissions from Alberta’s oil and gas sector and, in particular, the oil sands. As for what the NDP would do in this area, we’re left with a commitment to serious dialogue and a pledge to do better. There’s a lot left to the imagination here, not the least of which is the question of how NDP commitments to reduce emissions square with a pledge to add incremental refining and other industrial sectors in the province.

Rachel Notley stated during the election she would quit using Alberta's resource to lobby Washington over Keystone, but several observers don't think that's such a big deal. Very few provincial resources were used for for lobbying, and if Obama turns down the project, it's going to be because of the terrible climate costs of allowing the project to proceed. And it's very important to note, Ms. Notley isn't anti-pipeline per se, since she supports several projects in Canada such as the Energy East pipeline to the Atlantic, which would be bigger than Keystone XL and bolster the oil-sands industry. The one pipeline she's soured on, the Gateway project to British Columbia, has little chance of being completed anyway, thanks to fierce opposition from First Nations tribes. So it's not clear if the NDP's pipeline stance will have a big practical impact.

As Brad Plumer noted in his article for Vox

Add it all up, and Tuesday's election could have a big impact on Canada's oil industry, especially if there's some huge change to Alberta's royalty policy. But it's also possible to envision a scenario where surprisingly little changes, at least where oil's concerned.

ADDENDUM: Speaking of oil, The New York Times just published a news alert, President Obama has approved Arctic Ocean oil drilling. :( It looks like President Obama wants the United States to keep it's number one position as the world's largest producer for oil and natural gas. Not good for climate change.