Hezbollah's struggle for survival

[luvdovz.livejournal.com]

Hezbollah, the Lebanese extremist organization has been participating in the Syrian civil war quite openly, and there's a good reason for that. The situation is such that the outcome of that conflict will largely determine the very fate of the organization.

The bus attack in Burgas, Bulgaria, whose 1-year anniversary was marked the other day, was the first Hezbollah act on EU territory, and it indicated the beginning of a new stage in the international proxy standoff between Iran and Israel. While the investigation is still underway, trying to determine what exactly happened and why, and while the EU is still split on the question whether Hezbollah should be officially declared a terrorist organization or not, the group itself is facing yet another threat, one that could turn out to be of existential significance. If the rebels in Syria manage to topple Assad, that would most certainly mean the end of Hezbollah as we know it, if not a complete dismantling of the organization.

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Anthony Weiner and the Limits of Voter Forgiveness

[malasadas.livejournal.com]

Former Congressman and current Democratic hopeful for the Office of Mayor of New York City, Anthony Weiner, is in the news again and not for his campaign, but for his online habits and truthfulness about the same. Mr. Weiner was resigned his seat in the U.S. House of Representatives when it was revealed on May 27th, 2011 that he had sent a close-up selfie of his crotch to a young woman in Seattle who had been discussing politics with him over the internet. Weiner initially denied the incident and claimed that he had been hacked. Within a week, at least 6 more incidents surfaced, and by June 16th of 2011, he officially resigned his seat in Congress.

Mr. Weiner officially entered the race for New York City mayor on May 22nd of this year, rather coyly stating that he could not "guarantee" that other images and incidents will not surface but assuring the public that his lurid online behavior was "behind him" (presumably to snickering).

Well, yesterday they surfaced -- and not in a manner that anyone had actually predicted. Mr. Weiner was revealed to go by the pseudonym 'Carlos Danger' and his habit of sending anatomy to female fans and/or initiating sexual conversations with same was still going on as recently as last year -- more than a year after he left Congress to try to repair his marriage.



The comedy value here is obvious. Mr. Weiner, already blessed with a name that invites a certain genre of humor, is driven from office by a scandal at least tangentially (see? you cannot resist this stuff) related to the part of his body most closely associated with his name. He returns to politics, declaring his problem is behind him (that's not where it was to begin with....oh bother, this stuff writes itself), and he has now been revealed as having gone by the name "Carlos Danger"? Naturally, comedy ensued on the Internet -- including a new meme, "Cubicle Guy":



All jokes, aside, however, I want to be at least slightly serious. Mr. Weiner was gaining traction in the race for the Democratic nomination for mayor and was possibly on his way to a triumphant return to elected office. He currently vows to stay in the race, and time will tell what limits there are or are not to what people are willing to forgive, but a few things are certain. Mr. Weiner yesterday asked voters for a "second chance" but it is clear to most people this would be a "third chance". While he did not lie, per se, by not revealing behavior that continued for at least a full year after his resignation from Congress, he was hardly forthcoming. He said he could not rule out more images or accusations coming forward, but he had to expect that most voters would have expected those to fit a time frame more indicative of man who resigned from Congress to devote himself to fixing his marriage in the summer of 2011. Far from returning to politics by being completely upfront with voters, he and his wife were featured in a New York Times Sunday Magazine feature story a month before he announced his candidacy. 8000 words and nothing to indicate that his struggle with online behavior was something that continued for another year...at least.

To me, that's continuing to be deceptive, and while people may argue that this is just about sending naughty messages, I think it reveals something far more unsavory about Mr. Weiner's personality. This isn't exactly a problem of consensual sexual behavior. In the case that got his behavior national attention, Mr. Weiner was having an online conversation with a young woman who admired him and his politics and ambitions -- by her accounts (and he has not denied this) the photo of his privates was unsolicited and unexpected. His other encounters appear to play out similarly -- although some of the women in question have been more receptive. At the end of the day, Mr. Weiner takes to the Internet, interacts in regular conversation with young women and he makes the initiating turn towards sexual content up to and including pictures of himself.

I would characterize this as someone who is serially predatory, taking overtures of admiration for what he pruports to do in POLITICS as overtures for sexual harrassment. Mr. Weiner is not a trustworthy man, and he has a record of prevaricating about his trustworthiness.

Of course, it is now that many shrug and attempt to cordon off such behavior from a man's potential in public life. Certainly, Mr. Weiner is not alone. Also in New York City, former governor Eliot Spitzer, who was driven from the governor's office in Albany by a prostitution scandal despite his aggressive stance prosecuting prostitution rings as Attorney General has entered the race to be comptroller of New York City. Former South Carolina Governor, Mark Sanford, departed office after a humiliating revelation of a transnational affair -- and was elected to Congress last year. Senator David Vitter of Louisiana survived a prostitution scandal and was reelected. And, of course, the Big Dawg himself, Bill Clinton was not only elected to the Presidency with the public knowing he had been unfaithful in his marriage, he was returned to office despite continued scrutiny of his personal life and left office with high approval rating despite having been revealed to have affairs while in office.

Our national and partisan moods cannot be accused of great consistency when it comes to these matters. I voted for Bill Clinton twice, but I cannot abide Mr. Weiner or Mr. Spitzer. I think it is likely that all but the most vehement of "values voters" tend to pick and choose which politician with which sexual scandal deserves another chance or not. I can cloak own inconsistency with the idea that I knew Bill Clinton was a lousy husband and a serial cheater when he ran in 1992, but his behavior of using high office to gain access to his affairs is hardly laudatory and arguably criminal. But Mr. Spitzer's offense goes beyond cheating on his wife -- it is the hypocrisy of a man who held himself up as a crusader with impeccable values who then engages in the very vice that he has prosecuted others for. With Mr. Weiner it is the image of a man with adoring fans on social media who then takes their enthusiasm for politics and the potential for positive change through politics not to inspire them, but to get off on them. His behavior reminds me teachers and clergy who have the opportunity to inspire but instead betray the people who look to them with admiration. He may have never physically pursued them, but how can I put my trust into a man who seems to clearly get off on that?

Where do you, personally, draw the line?