Cuba after the Castros

[luzribeiro]

Cuba seems to be entering a new era, or at least that's how the international media have presented the appointment of Miguel Diaz Canel for president, after the country was ruled by the Castros for nearly six decades. The parliament voted anonymously and approved Diaz Canel to succeed Raul Castro who had previously completed two 5 year terms (big brother Fidel had ruled 1959-2006 before him).

The successor to the Castros has an interesting background, a mixture of the story of the devout party man and the guy who's close to the people and especially the younger generations. Still, the notion that major reform is coming up for Cuba is mostly fantasy.

Canel is 57 years old, and his appointment was no surprise. Before he became president, he was actually VP. Despite his closeness to the Castros, some imagined him to be the voice of change. There are many reasons for this: he's he first civilian president of a country that used to be ruled by the leaders of the Revolution for 60 years. His political career started with high ratings in Santa Clara, where he was party secretary. This was mostly due to his humble lifestyle which he maintained despite his high position. Some even report he was a defender of the LGBT rights, despite the predominantly homophobic moods at the time.

His closeness to the people is his trademark. He got the nickname Diaz y Noche in his hometown, a word-game between his name and a popular criminal TV drama, because he worked tirelessly to uncover corruption schemes in his region.

But his image tends to differ at a nationwide level. There's reason to expect that he'll be more flexible, more modern, but in the meantime there's no evidence that he'd be a reformist and he'd work to end the one-party system and stop the cronyism in the public sector in favor of boosting the private one.

In fact, his political views largely remain a mystery, because election campaign is prohibited in Cuba, and moreover his public appearances were rather limited before the vote. The expectation that he'd rather support the status quo is supported by the fact that last year he supported the shutting down of independent media, and he accused several European embassies in subversive activities. After all, he'd hardly have climbed that far up the ladder if he hadn't been doing the Castros' bidding.

Comments

[abomvubuso]

Diaz-Canel will have the economy as his most immediate problem. It's not just the suffocating embargo, it's the painful transition away from a planned economy. Some reform was started in 2010, but it's going too slowly and by the trial and error principle. For instance, a massive agricultural reform was initially started, but then it was reversed to a centralised system. Still, there's some progress there.

In 2012 Cuba adopted its first wholesome tax code that encompassed incomes, property, inheritance, farm land, etc. A foreign investment law was adopted in 2014, opening up the economy a little bit. It cut taxes by nearly 50% and added some flexibility and opportunity for a more active participation of foreign investors and trader parnerships involving the state. Trading private property was also legalised, but the state continues to heavily regulate the car imports and other industries.

There's a lot of work to be done, and some of it is going to be painful. Of course, there's always the concern that Cuba would become an appendix to the US economy, so there's that too.

[halialkers]

Batista and Castro were both tyrants of different variations. I highly doubt Raul Castro would intentionally repeat the Gorbachev issue of promoting a man to change a system to preside over its demise. Doesn't mean it can't happen accidentally regardless of what he wants, but.....