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talkpoliticsStability has prevailed in Japan, most analysts say after the latest election. The ruling coalition of the Liberal Democrats and the Komeito bloc have won 312 out of 465 seats in the lower chamber of the Japanese parliament, and though they've lost a few seats, they've retained their 2/3 majority, which gives them an opportunity to change the Constitution. The official reason that Shinzo Abe called the snap election was his desire to get a public mandate that he could benefit from in order to use the revenue from the raised sales taxes - not for paying off some of the public debt, but to raise social payments and investment in education.
Informally, however, the reason that Abe sought re-election was because of the catastrophic levels of public support for his cabinet. Earlier this year he was accused of cronyism because of a purported pressure on the ministry of health on behalf of the interests of his close friend Kotaro Kake who wanted to launch a veterinarian school. There were also a number of scandals and gaffes in his party, which led it to a historic loss of seats in the key local parliament of Tokyo.
However, the key effect of this election was elsewhere. RIght now, 80% of the seats in parliament are controlled by political factions that support Abe's hinted revision of Japan's pacifist constitution. Article 9 (adopted during the US post-WW2 occupation) says that Japan cannot have an army of its own. But in recent years, because of China's increased ambitions in the South China Sea and Sea of Japan, the nuclear threat from North Korea and the waning US influence in the region, the issue of a constitutional change has stopped being a political taboo.
Abe recently said on the campaign trail that Japan can no longer afford to be led by the nose by NK. He also said that he'd be looking for support from US president Trump to apply "maximum pressure" on Pyongyang.
Although the majority of elected politicians in Japan support the idea of legitimising the Japanese re-armament (which has been happening anyway), the voters may not necessarily agree with them. Recent NHK surveys indicate that only 32% would support Abe's push for referendum on Article 9. 21% were firmly against, and 39% still uncertain. The same survey shows that 51% of the Japanese public does not trust the prime minister.
The opposition, mostly the Constitution Democratic Party, is the only serious political force that could oppose Abe's idea for referendum. But their weak score (only 54 seats) won't allow them to be anything but a mere voice of dissent in the next few years.
Economically speaking, Abe's victory means a continuation of the so called Abenomics, and more increase of liquidity by the Central Bank of Japan. While most other major economies in the world tend to curb economic stimulus, or at least are planning to do so, Japan seems to be keeping the course that Abe took in 2012. The problem with that is, right now the balance of the central bank almost equals the entire size of the Japanese economy.
On one side, this policy supports exports and benefits corporate giants like Toyota, Canon and Nintendo, but the effect from increased revenue would mostly remain beneficial to the share-holders for the time being. The low growth rate of the salaries overall should be compensated through increasing income taxes, a step that was postponed several times because of the stagnation in 2014-2017.
While the Tokyo stocks have risen after the election, the Japanese yen has lost some of its value, and reached its lowest level against the dollar, 114. The investors don't expect any change in the policies of the central bank, which means the pressure on the Japanese currency will continue.
Informally, however, the reason that Abe sought re-election was because of the catastrophic levels of public support for his cabinet. Earlier this year he was accused of cronyism because of a purported pressure on the ministry of health on behalf of the interests of his close friend Kotaro Kake who wanted to launch a veterinarian school. There were also a number of scandals and gaffes in his party, which led it to a historic loss of seats in the key local parliament of Tokyo.
However, the key effect of this election was elsewhere. RIght now, 80% of the seats in parliament are controlled by political factions that support Abe's hinted revision of Japan's pacifist constitution. Article 9 (adopted during the US post-WW2 occupation) says that Japan cannot have an army of its own. But in recent years, because of China's increased ambitions in the South China Sea and Sea of Japan, the nuclear threat from North Korea and the waning US influence in the region, the issue of a constitutional change has stopped being a political taboo.
Abe recently said on the campaign trail that Japan can no longer afford to be led by the nose by NK. He also said that he'd be looking for support from US president Trump to apply "maximum pressure" on Pyongyang.
Although the majority of elected politicians in Japan support the idea of legitimising the Japanese re-armament (which has been happening anyway), the voters may not necessarily agree with them. Recent NHK surveys indicate that only 32% would support Abe's push for referendum on Article 9. 21% were firmly against, and 39% still uncertain. The same survey shows that 51% of the Japanese public does not trust the prime minister.
The opposition, mostly the Constitution Democratic Party, is the only serious political force that could oppose Abe's idea for referendum. But their weak score (only 54 seats) won't allow them to be anything but a mere voice of dissent in the next few years.
Economically speaking, Abe's victory means a continuation of the so called Abenomics, and more increase of liquidity by the Central Bank of Japan. While most other major economies in the world tend to curb economic stimulus, or at least are planning to do so, Japan seems to be keeping the course that Abe took in 2012. The problem with that is, right now the balance of the central bank almost equals the entire size of the Japanese economy.
On one side, this policy supports exports and benefits corporate giants like Toyota, Canon and Nintendo, but the effect from increased revenue would mostly remain beneficial to the share-holders for the time being. The low growth rate of the salaries overall should be compensated through increasing income taxes, a step that was postponed several times because of the stagnation in 2014-2017.
While the Tokyo stocks have risen after the election, the Japanese yen has lost some of its value, and reached its lowest level against the dollar, 114. The investors don't expect any change in the policies of the central bank, which means the pressure on the Japanese currency will continue.
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Date: 26/10/17 08:09 (UTC)