This is just the beginning
11/9/17 14:15![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
airiefairie posting in ![[community profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/community.png){kind=small}
talkpoliticsMany people must have asked themselves these days, are Harvey and Irma just the first heralds of what is to come in the years and decades ahead? Are mega-hurricanes going to become the new normal? And are they a revenge from nature for the crimes we have done against it?
Tropical cyclones are ranked from grade 1 to 5 depending on their intensity. This includes wind speed, rainfall, and the destructive energy. Grade 5 is the most extreme. While Harvey was 4 at its height, Irma has reached a speed of 285 kmph, and is 5th grade. One of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes in recorded history. People of the Caribbean coast used to have it relatively easy in recent years, but this year's hurricane season is something else. This could be partly explained with the effects of El Nino. This year it had a longer duration, and this affected the Atlantic tropics as well.
El Nino occurs roughly once in 4 years, with varying duration and intensity. But the rising sea temperatures in recent years have added to that effect. The surface water temperature in the Mexican Gulf has reached 30'C, which creates conditions for extremely strong hurricanes. 26'C is the threshold beyond which tropical hurricanes and cyclones are formed. The warmer the surface water, the large amounts of vapour are sucked into the atmosphere, and the hurricanes become more intense.
There are mounting indications that the tropical cyclones will be getting ever more intense. So far the climatologists are hesitating to tie this to global warming. Such hurricanes were present as far back as the 70s, when there were storms of similar intensity. But the trend that is currently observe is towards the increase of their frequency and intensity. As for tropical cyclones, although they still remain a rarity, and the correlation with sea warming has not been fully established yet in terms of frequency, it seems their intensity is directly affected by sea temperatures. Especially in specific regions like the Caribbean and SE Asia.
In 2008, scientists from the University of Tallahassee found that tropical cyclones in the Atlantic were becoming more intense, the wind speeds drastically increasing. As the temperature of sea water increases, so does the energy that goes into the formation of tropical cyclones. Hence the increasing destruction. Harvey set a new record in terms of precipitation; Irma, in terms of wind speed. And not just that, but the latter covered a unprecedented territory.
In all fairness, it is still hard to say with certainty if global warming is the sole culprit for every single case, specifically for Irma and Harvey. These are complex processes, we cannot say for sure if this or that particular hurricane was caused by rising sea temperature or not. What has become clear though, is that the intensity of these phenomena is related to climate change. There are a plenty of climate models forecasting an ever increasing frequency and intensity of these processes.
A recent report by the Congressional budget service examined the potential increase of damages in the US from now until 2075. It found that coastal areas would see devastation so severe that the costs would outrun the growth of the US economy, and render it unsustainable in the long run. The number of affected people would rise almost ten-fold as well.
So what we are experiencing right now, really does seem like a herald to what is to come, and it looks much worse. Perhaps it is time to start thinking about dealing with the consequences, and preparing for a future of annual mega-hurricanes, instead of debating climate models at this point.
These disasters are also a catastrophe for the insurance industry, an immeasurable and seemingly incurable one. Of course, human costs, the loss of lives and property, and the personal tragedies are immensely more important, but the burden on the economy is already starting to be felt.
It is also human to start looking for culprits, people to blame for tragedies, while also remaining sympathetic to the victims of disasters, and trying to help them with everything possible. The time when natural disasters were considered an act of God, just a throw of the random natural dice, are gone. Now there are people responsible for damaged homes and infrastructure, as became evident during Katrina. As cynical as it may seem, we cannot begin to be properly prepared for disasters of this magnitude, unless we have started holding people responsible for not doing their job properly. Both in construction, city planning, and disaster response.
Of course, the temptation to use disasters as a tool for scoring easy political points is too big to resist for some. On the other hand, those who bear the responsibility for preventing bigger losses, should be held accountable - because climate change is already here to stay, and it will be forcing us to re-think preventive measures on a qualitatively new level.
Tropical cyclones are ranked from grade 1 to 5 depending on their intensity. This includes wind speed, rainfall, and the destructive energy. Grade 5 is the most extreme. While Harvey was 4 at its height, Irma has reached a speed of 285 kmph, and is 5th grade. One of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes in recorded history. People of the Caribbean coast used to have it relatively easy in recent years, but this year's hurricane season is something else. This could be partly explained with the effects of El Nino. This year it had a longer duration, and this affected the Atlantic tropics as well.
El Nino occurs roughly once in 4 years, with varying duration and intensity. But the rising sea temperatures in recent years have added to that effect. The surface water temperature in the Mexican Gulf has reached 30'C, which creates conditions for extremely strong hurricanes. 26'C is the threshold beyond which tropical hurricanes and cyclones are formed. The warmer the surface water, the large amounts of vapour are sucked into the atmosphere, and the hurricanes become more intense.
There are mounting indications that the tropical cyclones will be getting ever more intense. So far the climatologists are hesitating to tie this to global warming. Such hurricanes were present as far back as the 70s, when there were storms of similar intensity. But the trend that is currently observe is towards the increase of their frequency and intensity. As for tropical cyclones, although they still remain a rarity, and the correlation with sea warming has not been fully established yet in terms of frequency, it seems their intensity is directly affected by sea temperatures. Especially in specific regions like the Caribbean and SE Asia.
In 2008, scientists from the University of Tallahassee found that tropical cyclones in the Atlantic were becoming more intense, the wind speeds drastically increasing. As the temperature of sea water increases, so does the energy that goes into the formation of tropical cyclones. Hence the increasing destruction. Harvey set a new record in terms of precipitation; Irma, in terms of wind speed. And not just that, but the latter covered a unprecedented territory.
In all fairness, it is still hard to say with certainty if global warming is the sole culprit for every single case, specifically for Irma and Harvey. These are complex processes, we cannot say for sure if this or that particular hurricane was caused by rising sea temperature or not. What has become clear though, is that the intensity of these phenomena is related to climate change. There are a plenty of climate models forecasting an ever increasing frequency and intensity of these processes.
A recent report by the Congressional budget service examined the potential increase of damages in the US from now until 2075. It found that coastal areas would see devastation so severe that the costs would outrun the growth of the US economy, and render it unsustainable in the long run. The number of affected people would rise almost ten-fold as well.
So what we are experiencing right now, really does seem like a herald to what is to come, and it looks much worse. Perhaps it is time to start thinking about dealing with the consequences, and preparing for a future of annual mega-hurricanes, instead of debating climate models at this point.
These disasters are also a catastrophe for the insurance industry, an immeasurable and seemingly incurable one. Of course, human costs, the loss of lives and property, and the personal tragedies are immensely more important, but the burden on the economy is already starting to be felt.
It is also human to start looking for culprits, people to blame for tragedies, while also remaining sympathetic to the victims of disasters, and trying to help them with everything possible. The time when natural disasters were considered an act of God, just a throw of the random natural dice, are gone. Now there are people responsible for damaged homes and infrastructure, as became evident during Katrina. As cynical as it may seem, we cannot begin to be properly prepared for disasters of this magnitude, unless we have started holding people responsible for not doing their job properly. Both in construction, city planning, and disaster response.
Of course, the temptation to use disasters as a tool for scoring easy political points is too big to resist for some. On the other hand, those who bear the responsibility for preventing bigger losses, should be held accountable - because climate change is already here to stay, and it will be forcing us to re-think preventive measures on a qualitatively new level.
(no subject)
Date: 11/9/17 11:41 (UTC)Huge numbers of people are going to be wiped out completely over this. Unless big government steps in, of course; to socialise the costs of the disasters.
(no subject)
Date: 11/9/17 11:44 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 11/9/17 13:46 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 12/9/17 04:20 (UTC)http://www.iflscience.com/environment/public-scientists-why-cant-nuke-hurricanes/
(no subject)
Date: 11/9/17 14:11 (UTC)It's just that some areas will become depopulated. Including Mar-a-Lago.
(no subject)
Date: 12/9/17 02:12 (UTC)Harvey was so destructive because of urban sprawl in low-lying areas, as was Katrina, and because of the inequality of the geography of rich and poor.
Of course in Ancient China this many natural disasters in six months would have seen Trump executed and a new dynasty executing the Mandate of Heaven, so.... *shrugs*