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talkpoliticsLet me just start by reminding that last year, Erdogan and Merkel made a deal on the refugee issue. Back then, the migrant pressure on Europe was huge. Hundreds of thousands of refugees were flocking through the Aegean into Greece, and then using the so called Balkan route to go to West Europe, mostly Germany. Hundreds drowned in the Mediterranean. Merkel was forced to do something, or else she would lose her chancellor position. So in February last year she went to Turkey to meet with Erdogan. That mission was perceived by many as the most influential woman in Europe going to kneel before the Sultan, and beg for his help.
Then in March 2016 came the agreement with Turkey. It must have served its purpose well, because the number of refugees immediately dropped significantly. Turkey's part of the deal was to host the refugees, and in return it was promised two things: a political trump card, plus 3 billion euro for supporting the large refugee population.
As for the political trump card, namely the promise of removing the visas for Turkish citizens traveling to Europe, there were some strings attached. Turkey had to harmonise their anti-terror laws with those of the EU. But because Turkey failed to fulfill this condition, there was no visa removal. Turkey was given a path towards accelerating the negotiations for EU entry, but that proposal also turned out useless, since Erdogan's recent policies have put Turkey as far away from the EU as it could possibly be.
In the meantime though, the EU money keeps flowing to Turkey. Are these funds used exactly what they are meant for, though? Or are they rather filling to coffers of some autocrats?
Well, it is telling that initially Erdogan wanted the 3 billion to be directly sent to the government accounts. Send me the money, and I will take care of the refugees, he basically argued. But things didn't happen that way, because the EU insisted that there should be clarity and transparency about the destination of the money it was about to give to Turkey. The Europeans wanted to make sure that the money wouldn't be used for other purposes, like buying arms for Erdogan's war on the Kurds.
So instead of going directly to the Turkish budget, the money was sent into a few select organisations, like the World Food Programme and UNICEF. In some cases (but only if useful), the money would be sent to the Turkish ministry of education, or the ministry of health. EC data shows that the ministry of education has received 90 million euro so far, and the ministry of health 120 million.
The tasks that Turkey had to fulfill in return were indeed huge. There are nearly 2.8 million refugees living on Turkish territory at the moment, much more than in any other country. And this means that they have to integrate tens of thousands of foreign children into their education system, open new classes, hire new teachers. Nearly 45 thousand new teachers actually. And this means at least half a billion euro annually for salaries alone.
The EU strictly controls how the money is being spent, and is trying new ways of helping, so that the funds would directly go to those who need them. Last September for example, a huge humanitarian project was launched, costing 384 million euro. The money helped create a system for payment with cards that serve as pre-paid phone vouchers and could be charged with certain amounts that would go for covering the refugee's monthly expenses. The EU gave those cards to the most vulnerable refugees like women and children living in very difficult conditions in the refugee camps or in miserable little rented apartments around the Turkish countryside. Although many of these people are accommodated inside storage facilities and basements, they still have to pay a monthly rent. But still, they now have some money and they can feel a bit safer than before.
Of course, there are additional bonuses of all this: the EU funds help the refugees stimulate the local economy, especially in rural areas. Out of the 3 billion Turkey was given, 1.6 is actually non-humanitarian aid, like building municipal infrastructure, building schools and hospitals, etc.
But does Turkey and Erdogan personally benefit from this deal? For now, the answer is mostly not. So far the Turkish government has spent a total of 27 billion euro for handling the refugee crisis. That's at least the official data, and many experts believe the amount is actually much higher. The more realistic figure could be close to 50 billion. And Turkey needs roughly 20 billion a year to handle the problem properly.
Of course, we should approach these figures carefully, because they also include lots of indirect expenses. Perhaps a better indicator would be the unemployment level in Turkey. Officially it is 12%. More than a third of the Turkish GDP is apparently generated on the grey market. Those refugees who do manage to find a legal job would be putting additional pressure on that market, with all the negative consequences for the state and the people who are forced to seek for jobs there. Which, despite all reservations about Erdogan's untrustworthiness, indicates that at least for the time being, the bulk of the money is going to the right place. But that could change, of course.
Then in March 2016 came the agreement with Turkey. It must have served its purpose well, because the number of refugees immediately dropped significantly. Turkey's part of the deal was to host the refugees, and in return it was promised two things: a political trump card, plus 3 billion euro for supporting the large refugee population.
As for the political trump card, namely the promise of removing the visas for Turkish citizens traveling to Europe, there were some strings attached. Turkey had to harmonise their anti-terror laws with those of the EU. But because Turkey failed to fulfill this condition, there was no visa removal. Turkey was given a path towards accelerating the negotiations for EU entry, but that proposal also turned out useless, since Erdogan's recent policies have put Turkey as far away from the EU as it could possibly be.
In the meantime though, the EU money keeps flowing to Turkey. Are these funds used exactly what they are meant for, though? Or are they rather filling to coffers of some autocrats?
Well, it is telling that initially Erdogan wanted the 3 billion to be directly sent to the government accounts. Send me the money, and I will take care of the refugees, he basically argued. But things didn't happen that way, because the EU insisted that there should be clarity and transparency about the destination of the money it was about to give to Turkey. The Europeans wanted to make sure that the money wouldn't be used for other purposes, like buying arms for Erdogan's war on the Kurds.
So instead of going directly to the Turkish budget, the money was sent into a few select organisations, like the World Food Programme and UNICEF. In some cases (but only if useful), the money would be sent to the Turkish ministry of education, or the ministry of health. EC data shows that the ministry of education has received 90 million euro so far, and the ministry of health 120 million.
The tasks that Turkey had to fulfill in return were indeed huge. There are nearly 2.8 million refugees living on Turkish territory at the moment, much more than in any other country. And this means that they have to integrate tens of thousands of foreign children into their education system, open new classes, hire new teachers. Nearly 45 thousand new teachers actually. And this means at least half a billion euro annually for salaries alone.
The EU strictly controls how the money is being spent, and is trying new ways of helping, so that the funds would directly go to those who need them. Last September for example, a huge humanitarian project was launched, costing 384 million euro. The money helped create a system for payment with cards that serve as pre-paid phone vouchers and could be charged with certain amounts that would go for covering the refugee's monthly expenses. The EU gave those cards to the most vulnerable refugees like women and children living in very difficult conditions in the refugee camps or in miserable little rented apartments around the Turkish countryside. Although many of these people are accommodated inside storage facilities and basements, they still have to pay a monthly rent. But still, they now have some money and they can feel a bit safer than before.
Of course, there are additional bonuses of all this: the EU funds help the refugees stimulate the local economy, especially in rural areas. Out of the 3 billion Turkey was given, 1.6 is actually non-humanitarian aid, like building municipal infrastructure, building schools and hospitals, etc.
But does Turkey and Erdogan personally benefit from this deal? For now, the answer is mostly not. So far the Turkish government has spent a total of 27 billion euro for handling the refugee crisis. That's at least the official data, and many experts believe the amount is actually much higher. The more realistic figure could be close to 50 billion. And Turkey needs roughly 20 billion a year to handle the problem properly.
Of course, we should approach these figures carefully, because they also include lots of indirect expenses. Perhaps a better indicator would be the unemployment level in Turkey. Officially it is 12%. More than a third of the Turkish GDP is apparently generated on the grey market. Those refugees who do manage to find a legal job would be putting additional pressure on that market, with all the negative consequences for the state and the people who are forced to seek for jobs there. Which, despite all reservations about Erdogan's untrustworthiness, indicates that at least for the time being, the bulk of the money is going to the right place. But that could change, of course.
(no subject)
Date: 24/7/17 06:54 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 24/7/17 12:12 (UTC)Impressive that Merkel got him to agree to that in the first place - but it can't be surprising to anyone that he wants to back out or change it up a little...