Macron's true battle is just beginning

[ddstory.livejournal.com]

Centrism could be radical too, and win electoral battles, as it turns out. Emmanuel Macron has shown this with his landslide win over FN frontlady Marine Le Pen on the 2nd round of the French presidential election last weekend. With 2/3 of the vote, Macron became the youngest president in the history of the French Republic (he's 39).

But the hardships only start from here. In order to pass his planned economic, administrative and social reforms, the new president will be needing a solid majority in parliament. The parliamentary election is next month, and Macron's new party En Marche would hardly be able to repeat his landslide victory at the presidential election. The first round of this election showed the serious divide: there's the French left around Melanchon, the traditional conservative Republicans, and then Front Nationale.

A Kantar-Sofres research argues that this divide will persist into the parliamentary elecitons. Macron's party is expected to get 24% of the vote, the Republicans 22%, FN 21%, and Melanchon 15%. Hollande's ruling Socialists are going to be hit hard, ending up with just 9%, and the Greens with 3.5%.

Another curious fact is how and why the French voted in the 2nd round. The turnout was a record low, just 75% of the eligible voters. The last time such a low number of people showed up was 40 years ago. There was also a record number of Abstained ballots, or invalid ballots (12 million and 4.2 million, respectively).

The FT published some data showing the divisions in the French electorate. Macron was most convincing among the educated, wealthy and more optimistic segments. He won 84% of the top 10% most highly educated, while among the bottom 10% he scored just 56%.

The new French president is usually described as pro-European, social liberal, but also pro-business. While his main opponent Marine Le Pen was calling for leaving the Euro zone and the EU, Macron the centrist placed his trust with firm pro-European messages, which he reiterated in his victory speech while EU's anthem The Ode of Joy was playing in the background.

He vowed to "serve with humility and energy", and remain true to the republican principles of freedom, equality and brotherhood. He also added that in the next 5 years he'd do his best not to give the French people a reason to vote for radical extremes on the next election. He was also gracious to Le Pen, asking his supporters not to boo her, because he respected and understood the anger and disillusion of those who had voted for her.

However, if he is to fulfill his intentions, Macron would need political support from beyond the traditional political spectrum of left vs right. He may've won the presidency, but he's still nowhere near turning France from a static, stagnated economy into a dynamic one like the Nordic ones. Right now, what stands in his way is the French National Assembly, the parliament where he wouldn't be able to form a cabinet if he's to remain in opposition. If he wants to avoid that, his party would have to win a comfortable majority in the lower house, and find enough allies among the future MPs from the other parties. Otherwise his reforms are doomed. Right now, there are many political leaders from both left and right, including former PM, Valls the Socialist, plus representatives of the right, who have indicated support for him, which is promising.

But those who hastened to mock Mme Le Pen and write her off as utterly defeated and politically dead, may be in for a surprise. This election has demonstrated a major shift in French politics. The big news for Le Pen is not that she lost badly with just 35% of the votes, but that she won so many votes - as many as in all her previous elections combined. The far right has won 11 million votes more than what it used to have during her father's time (say, in 2002).

Now, as to how well the FN would preserve its momentum, mostly depends on two things. One, would Marine Le Pen manage to re-formulate the goals of her faction and make them more moderately Euroskeptic (as her father suggested in a recent interview), and two, would she be able to calm down the rebellions within her own party.

In her concession speech, Le Pen wished Macron good luck and said that her party is also starting a full transformation in an attempt to answer the expectations of its constituents. He said there's no more a traditional divide between left and right, there's a new divide now: patriots vs globalists (and that she represents the former). She hinted about a future re-formulation of the image of the FN which had earned a rather toxic fame in the past, and a change of image of her party.

With or without a strong right, Macron would still have enough problems with his reform. For instance, the left-wing union CGT announced right after the election that they'd be starting a mass strike in paris to note the beginning of Macron's term, in protest against the liberal economic policies that he professes.

On the other hand, the messages coming from the rest of Europe were positive and reassuring. "A victory for a united and strong Europe", Angela Merkel concluded. "The French have chosen a European future for themselves", JC Juncker added. Indeed, France may've halted the destructive populist momentum, at least for the time being. Whether it'll use the opportunity to start reforming itself to answer the expectations of its citizens, remains to be seen.

Comments

[halialkers]

So the question relies on the ability of the Left to avoid major infighting over who is more purist than whom as much as the Right's ability to be flexible? That's......a lot more problematic than it really should be when the alternative is a literal Nazi sympathizer.

[abomvubuso.livejournal.com]

Finally, a technocrat. Let's hope he won't blow the chance.

[johnny9fingers.livejournal.com]

Hamstrung by a lack of parliamentary party.

Could be difficult to succeed: look to Obama as the model for a gridlocked leader without a majority... who was followed by...

I ain't counting my chickens yet.

[abomvubuso.livejournal.com]

If you really want to see a gridlocked administration, just wait a few more months and watch Trump.

[johnny9fingers.livejournal.com]

Nah, he will just sack anyone who gets close to getting anything damaging on him. And the Repubs are just going to go along with it.

Now we just need him to issue emergency orders and... blip... Amend the "interpretation" of the constitution without changing the constitution itself. There are ways and means. And no doubt they will test them all and hope SCOTUS rolls over, which it will.

[abomvubuso.livejournal.com]

I'd have commented more on that, but I'm afraid we'd stray way too offtopic as this post isn't about Trump. My bad, I brought it up.

[ddstory.livejournal.com]

Oh, no worries, I'm used at this point to everything being seen from an Americentric perspective - even by non-Americans.

[johnny9fingers.livejournal.com]

My fault too. Don't blame Kol.

Here's hoping Macron can pull it all together. He's got a job.

[ddstory.livejournal.com]

Like I said, I'm not blaming anyone for anything. It's just what it is.

And Macron is one lucky opportunist. Someone coming from the French equivalent of Wall Street is to be taken with a huge grain of salt when vowing to work in the interests of the middle class - and so he is. (There were protests against him from day one).

[johnny9fingers.livejournal.com]

Sorry, my bad.

[htpcl.livejournal.com]

It's natural that the establishment parties would resist an outsider who hasn't passed through the whole political career-building thing.

Don't worry. They'll come along.

[johnny9fingers.livejournal.com]

They had better, or others will reap the rewards.

[luvdovz.livejournal.com]

Although he was welcomed with open arms by the EU, Macron will likely clash with the rest of Europe (https://euobserver.com/political/137827) on many fronts, from the economy to defense, to annoying specific countries like Poland and Hungary.

It won't be a honeymoon. But it's definitely preferable to what might have been, had Le Pen somehow clutched her claws around the highest position of power.