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talkpoliticsWhen Obama asked his good political pal, Aussie PM Malcolm Turnbull what he thought of the fact that Saudi Arabia and some other Gulf states were trying to export a more stringent form of Islam to other parts of the world (like Indonesia), the Oz guy responded with a question: "But, but, I thought those guys used to be your pals?" Obama hesitated for a moment and said, "Oh well. It's complicated".
Don't worry, that's just a joke published at The Atlantic. But still, it tells a whole story of America's relations with the Saudis - specifically, the change that has occurred there. The quiet mutual understanding that used to be taken for granted between the US and KSA for decades now seems to have given way to distrust and reservations.
It all began with 9-11 of course. 15 out of the 19 terrorists were Saudi citizens. Since then, the US has been looking at Wahhabism more closely, and with more concern. You know, Wahhabism, the state religious doctrine in Saudi Arabia. The fundamentalism of the Wahhabi theologians is pretty close to the extremism of the Sunni jihadists. In fact, there are numerous indications that those two doctrines are closely intertwined. Almost like twin brothers.
A yet unpublished addendum to the report of the 9-11 investigation commission is being subject to public debate in the US for the last few weeks. Former Senator Bob Kerry, the then member of the investigating team, said that "Regarding Saudi Arabia, we have certainly exhausted all possible roads".
Saudi Arabia, in turn, has been trying to acquire this secret report for quite a while. Their argument: if we're being accused of something, we'd like to be able to defend ourselves (but in any case, any accusations are groundless). That's what former KSA foreign minister Saud al-Feysal said way back in 2003. So far, no luck for them. They still haven't gotten their hands on the classified document.
Even if only because of the 9-11 attacks, Obama's ongoing visit to Saudi Arabia was never going to be a pleasant experience. What's more, there are other circumstances that are further complicating the bilateral relations. Saudi Arabia is feeling abandoned by the US, Re: the Iranian nuclear deal (Iran is KSA's biggest rival). There's also the fact that the US has not provided sufficient support for the Saudi military intervention in Yemen. Besides, the two countries have some serious differences regarding Syria. While the Saudis insist on Assad's removal, the US has been more restrained in that respect.
Doubtless, Saudi Arabia would prefer to see a renewed involvement of the US. Instead, the fracking revolution in America has shaken KSA's leading position at the oil market (the Saudis have respnded by pumping vast amounts of oil up and knocking the oil prices down).
The problem is, right now the US and Saudi interests seem to be at the opposite extremes of the spectrum. While president Obama is trying to create a multipolar Middle East with several regional powers that would keep each other in check, Saudi Arabia wants to retain that role for itself and be the leading factor in the entire region. In Riyadh, Obama is considered the first US president who is hostile to that plan of theirs. Besides, his reconciliation efforts with Iran has knocked the Saudis out of their blissful pipe dream. If Obama really wanted to achieve something with that KSA visit, he ought to convince the Saudis that the time of the hegemonic regional powers is gone.
Still, despite all their differences, KSA and the US do have an array of common interests. The fight against Daesh may be among those, contrary to some allegations of Saudi sponsorship of the terrorist state. In fact, the Saudis may've realized that Daesh is not just a threat to their national security but also a huge ideological challenge. In recent months the jihadist attacks on Saudi territory have multiplied, and this can't help but be a reason for concern for the Saudis.
Another reason for concern is the unstable situation in a number of neighboring countries. This has prompted KSA to start a military intervention in Yemen and take the side of president Hadi in his fight against the rebel Hutti (supported by Iran). The military intervention in Yemen is also a signal to the US that the Saudis are capable of defending their interests without US help. At a first sight, it's a demonstration of force, but under the surface there are signs of weakness, because it means Saudi Arabia is now practically abandoning its previous strategy of gaining influence through diplomatic efforts. Now they're taking the more perilous, violent road. And so far it has brought them no success in Yemen.
So you can see how Obama's visit to Riyadh was always going to be a difficult one. The relations between these two are rather strained, and they're likely to get even worse, and fast. Or they could improve, but very slowly. If he plays his cards well.
Don't worry, that's just a joke published at The Atlantic. But still, it tells a whole story of America's relations with the Saudis - specifically, the change that has occurred there. The quiet mutual understanding that used to be taken for granted between the US and KSA for decades now seems to have given way to distrust and reservations.
It all began with 9-11 of course. 15 out of the 19 terrorists were Saudi citizens. Since then, the US has been looking at Wahhabism more closely, and with more concern. You know, Wahhabism, the state religious doctrine in Saudi Arabia. The fundamentalism of the Wahhabi theologians is pretty close to the extremism of the Sunni jihadists. In fact, there are numerous indications that those two doctrines are closely intertwined. Almost like twin brothers.
A yet unpublished addendum to the report of the 9-11 investigation commission is being subject to public debate in the US for the last few weeks. Former Senator Bob Kerry, the then member of the investigating team, said that "Regarding Saudi Arabia, we have certainly exhausted all possible roads".
Saudi Arabia, in turn, has been trying to acquire this secret report for quite a while. Their argument: if we're being accused of something, we'd like to be able to defend ourselves (but in any case, any accusations are groundless). That's what former KSA foreign minister Saud al-Feysal said way back in 2003. So far, no luck for them. They still haven't gotten their hands on the classified document.
Even if only because of the 9-11 attacks, Obama's ongoing visit to Saudi Arabia was never going to be a pleasant experience. What's more, there are other circumstances that are further complicating the bilateral relations. Saudi Arabia is feeling abandoned by the US, Re: the Iranian nuclear deal (Iran is KSA's biggest rival). There's also the fact that the US has not provided sufficient support for the Saudi military intervention in Yemen. Besides, the two countries have some serious differences regarding Syria. While the Saudis insist on Assad's removal, the US has been more restrained in that respect.
Doubtless, Saudi Arabia would prefer to see a renewed involvement of the US. Instead, the fracking revolution in America has shaken KSA's leading position at the oil market (the Saudis have respnded by pumping vast amounts of oil up and knocking the oil prices down).
The problem is, right now the US and Saudi interests seem to be at the opposite extremes of the spectrum. While president Obama is trying to create a multipolar Middle East with several regional powers that would keep each other in check, Saudi Arabia wants to retain that role for itself and be the leading factor in the entire region. In Riyadh, Obama is considered the first US president who is hostile to that plan of theirs. Besides, his reconciliation efforts with Iran has knocked the Saudis out of their blissful pipe dream. If Obama really wanted to achieve something with that KSA visit, he ought to convince the Saudis that the time of the hegemonic regional powers is gone.
Still, despite all their differences, KSA and the US do have an array of common interests. The fight against Daesh may be among those, contrary to some allegations of Saudi sponsorship of the terrorist state. In fact, the Saudis may've realized that Daesh is not just a threat to their national security but also a huge ideological challenge. In recent months the jihadist attacks on Saudi territory have multiplied, and this can't help but be a reason for concern for the Saudis.
Another reason for concern is the unstable situation in a number of neighboring countries. This has prompted KSA to start a military intervention in Yemen and take the side of president Hadi in his fight against the rebel Hutti (supported by Iran). The military intervention in Yemen is also a signal to the US that the Saudis are capable of defending their interests without US help. At a first sight, it's a demonstration of force, but under the surface there are signs of weakness, because it means Saudi Arabia is now practically abandoning its previous strategy of gaining influence through diplomatic efforts. Now they're taking the more perilous, violent road. And so far it has brought them no success in Yemen.
So you can see how Obama's visit to Riyadh was always going to be a difficult one. The relations between these two are rather strained, and they're likely to get even worse, and fast. Or they could improve, but very slowly. If he plays his cards well.
(no subject)
Date: 25/4/16 18:26 (UTC)Maybe later, given past experience and the US ability to learn from mistakes repeated over and over again.