![[identity profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/openid.png){kind=small}
ddstory.livejournal.com posting in ![[community profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/community.png){kind=small}
talkpoliticsI've realized this has become rather lengthy, so I'm thinking of occupying you with it on two consecutive days. I beg for your forgiveness if it appears too ranty to your tastes.
So here's the thing. Angela Merkel has been having a problem lately. The Greeks view her more like an Euro-dictator despite all her efforts to not look like one when she's refusing to donate them money. But saying "No" to what you believe to be the preposterous demands of leftist populists throwing threats at you - that's one thing; making a little girl cry on the TV is quite another. Unfortunately for Merkel, the entire Europe did see the video where she was seen explaining to a teary young Palestinian girl how her family could no longer stay in Germany and they'd have to return back to their refugee camp in Lebanon. Frau Merkel's logic seemed unshakable in a very typically German way: you see kiddo, there are just too many people in that camp who want to come to our promised land, and if no lines are drawn in the sand, they'll all certainly do that eventually. But the thing is, even the German logic is helpless in the face of the problem that's befalling Europe as we speak. But first, the video:
[Error: unknown template video]
Now more to the point. 626 thousand asylum applications have been received by EU member states for last year (link: .pdf), which is nearly twice as many as three years earlier. The refugee flood into Europe is getting ever more torrential, and that reflects the general tendency of increase of the number of people fleeing wars and instability around the world. The UN High Commissioner for Refugees has reported that 59.5 million people have been displaced in 2014, a record in the 65-year long history of the agency, and a 22-million increase from a decade earlier. The collapse of entire states in North Africa and the Middle East guarantees that this tendency will certainly be worsening in the near future.
This is putting several serious problems in front of Europe. First, what to do with all those people. While the refugees themselves might or might not be that many, the economic immigrants who are joining the general influx are making the distinction all the more complicated. This leads to increased pressure on the peripheral countries like Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Bulgaria - but also on the final destinations like Germany, Holland, Britain and Sweden. And here's the second problem: EU's separation into countries that can geographically afford to pretend that they're not noticing those waves, and those directly affected. This leaves the EU without a common solution and a common strategy, which in turn brings a whole array of headache-inducing problems. One example is the wall that Hungary is now planning along its border with Serbia. Another is the outbursts of xenophobia in many places, and economic and social problems in the EU member states who are becoming a transit corridor for the immigrant flow - like the West Balkans. 12.5 billion euros have been spent for the last decade on guarding the Union's borders, and fighting illegal human trafficking, and deporting people who for one reason or another have not been granted refugee status. In the meantime, 448 million euros have been spent for integration of those people, which is 30 times less.
As the politicians themselves probably know (Frau Merkel included), this problem will be getting ever more serious, and will be affecting Europe's image. And the European countries, now faced with processes of such magnitude like the immigration of huge masses of people fleeing neighboring regions, are shutting themselves into their own fortress more and more, instead of looking for a comprehensive long-term solution. The assumption is that the refugees are people who are here just temporarily, which is why in many places they're being blocked from getting a job, and are forcefully kept in camps - until the time they're (hopefully?) returned back to wherever they came from. But it suffices to look at Syria and Libya to understand that this is a rather unrealistic expectation - at least for the time being. This influx of people will be changing Europe ever more. Just one example. During the G-7 meeting in Germany last month, a temporary border control was introduced along the German-Austrian border. This did lead to the interception of 2000+ illegal crossings. And this experience became a reason for debates about the very future of the Schengen border system during the council of the ministers of the internal affairs in Luxembourg. So, ironically, peripheral EU countries who've long been denied Schengen entry under one pretext or another, could now end up being urgently accepted there, for the sake of creating a buffer zone between the Good Old Europe and whatever evils dwell "out there".
As on so many other urgent and important issues, the EU remains divided by default on the question of immigration, and keeps trying old tactics and approaches that have been tested and failed many times. The Migrants Files, a project by a consortium of European journalists, has come up with data showing that Europe is paying much more money in an attempt to get rid of the incoming refugees, than it has dedicated to their integration. Two events from the last few months may have the potential to turn this tendency around. One was the inauguration of the new Juncker team at the EC. They announced right from the get-go that addressing the refugee issue would be one of their top priorities, and the new commissary position in the EC was even named after the immigration issue (it was given to Dimitris Avramopoulos, a Greek).
The other event was the tragedy with the 800 refugees who drowned in the trafficking boat in April. The public outcry from this tragedy gave the new EC team the authority to propose its own European Programme for Integration and Migration (EPIM) for the next 5 years. They outlined the measures that should be urgently taken in response to the crisis situation in the Mediterranean, and the steps that should be made in the following years in order to improve the migration management in all its aspects. The problem is, while the EC did want to take a much more politically clear position on the migration issue, in fact there are still too many division lines passing straight through the middle of European politics, which will be too difficult to overcome.
Right now, Europe is divided in four, in terms of its reaction to the issue. Ireland, Britain and Denmark are in one camp, refusing to be part of a shared approach to the refugee problem. Then there are the countries in the southern periphery like Greece and Italy, who are desperately looking for more support from the EU, due to the enormous pressure they've been subjected to in the last few months, and the emerging crisis situation. Thirdly, there are the countries who've already stated a course of solidarity with the countries in trouble - Germany and Sweden are there. And then, there are the East European countries like Bulgaria and Romania, who are firmly refusing to take additional responsibility.
This division became very apparent at the time of discussing the measures that the European Commission proposed to the European Council. Of course, the urgent measures for countering human trafficking through the Mediterranean were instantly accepted without objections. This includes the Triton and Poseidon operations which are more about patrolling and guarding the borders, rather than saving human lives - despite the assurances of the politicians that this isn't the case. The European Council president Donald Tusk (of Poland) didn't rule out a scenario where smugglers' camps would even be directly attacked - mainly in Libya. This would be a rather complex and costly policy, if adopted. Let alone the potential collateral damage, both human-life-wise and image-wise.
But what's more surprising is the uncomplaining acceptance of the part of that strategy that has demonstrably been its most inefficient part - namely, sea operations. Europe has attempted more than once to deal with smugglers of all sorts in the past - be they alcohol, tobacco or drug dealers. And now we're talking of a much more important cargo: human life. This makes their business even more profitable, so they're much better equipped and better prepared, and destroying their boats could only make them shift to a strategy of using rubber vessels that are easier to sink - and thus throwing the baby out with the water becomes even more likely.
...Putting them all on a boat and then sinking it, may not seem like a bad idea to some right now...
In fact, the fight against organized crime, the interception of illegal trafficking channels, and the decision to assault smuggler camps with force were accepted remarkably easily, despite being such huge, costly operations without any guaranteed success. On the other hand, the mechanism of relocation would be so much cheaper and limited in scope - but strangely, it was *the* main point of contention. Weird.
I'm talking of the most controversial (and probably boldest) point in the plan, the relocation of 40 thousand people from Greece and Italy to other parts of the continent, following a quota principle. And also the relocation of another 22 thousand people from refugee camps in Lebanon into various parts of the EU within the next couple of years. Although the measure is of a very limited scope (most countries would receive about 500-1000 people on average), and it's just a pilot project, it was instantly met with hostility by almost everybody. "Solidarity" again turns out to be the most overrated term in the European policies, and that's bound to additionally reinforce the opinion among the Greek and Italian people that the rest of Europe doesn't actually give a flying fuck about them - or indeed, anybody else but themselves.
And that's far from being the only problem there. But more about the rest, next time.
So here's the thing. Angela Merkel has been having a problem lately. The Greeks view her more like an Euro-dictator despite all her efforts to not look like one when she's refusing to donate them money. But saying "No" to what you believe to be the preposterous demands of leftist populists throwing threats at you - that's one thing; making a little girl cry on the TV is quite another. Unfortunately for Merkel, the entire Europe did see the video where she was seen explaining to a teary young Palestinian girl how her family could no longer stay in Germany and they'd have to return back to their refugee camp in Lebanon. Frau Merkel's logic seemed unshakable in a very typically German way: you see kiddo, there are just too many people in that camp who want to come to our promised land, and if no lines are drawn in the sand, they'll all certainly do that eventually. But the thing is, even the German logic is helpless in the face of the problem that's befalling Europe as we speak. But first, the video:
[Error: unknown template video]
Now more to the point. 626 thousand asylum applications have been received by EU member states for last year (link: .pdf), which is nearly twice as many as three years earlier. The refugee flood into Europe is getting ever more torrential, and that reflects the general tendency of increase of the number of people fleeing wars and instability around the world. The UN High Commissioner for Refugees has reported that 59.5 million people have been displaced in 2014, a record in the 65-year long history of the agency, and a 22-million increase from a decade earlier. The collapse of entire states in North Africa and the Middle East guarantees that this tendency will certainly be worsening in the near future.
This is putting several serious problems in front of Europe. First, what to do with all those people. While the refugees themselves might or might not be that many, the economic immigrants who are joining the general influx are making the distinction all the more complicated. This leads to increased pressure on the peripheral countries like Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Bulgaria - but also on the final destinations like Germany, Holland, Britain and Sweden. And here's the second problem: EU's separation into countries that can geographically afford to pretend that they're not noticing those waves, and those directly affected. This leaves the EU without a common solution and a common strategy, which in turn brings a whole array of headache-inducing problems. One example is the wall that Hungary is now planning along its border with Serbia. Another is the outbursts of xenophobia in many places, and economic and social problems in the EU member states who are becoming a transit corridor for the immigrant flow - like the West Balkans. 12.5 billion euros have been spent for the last decade on guarding the Union's borders, and fighting illegal human trafficking, and deporting people who for one reason or another have not been granted refugee status. In the meantime, 448 million euros have been spent for integration of those people, which is 30 times less.
As the politicians themselves probably know (Frau Merkel included), this problem will be getting ever more serious, and will be affecting Europe's image. And the European countries, now faced with processes of such magnitude like the immigration of huge masses of people fleeing neighboring regions, are shutting themselves into their own fortress more and more, instead of looking for a comprehensive long-term solution. The assumption is that the refugees are people who are here just temporarily, which is why in many places they're being blocked from getting a job, and are forcefully kept in camps - until the time they're (hopefully?) returned back to wherever they came from. But it suffices to look at Syria and Libya to understand that this is a rather unrealistic expectation - at least for the time being. This influx of people will be changing Europe ever more. Just one example. During the G-7 meeting in Germany last month, a temporary border control was introduced along the German-Austrian border. This did lead to the interception of 2000+ illegal crossings. And this experience became a reason for debates about the very future of the Schengen border system during the council of the ministers of the internal affairs in Luxembourg. So, ironically, peripheral EU countries who've long been denied Schengen entry under one pretext or another, could now end up being urgently accepted there, for the sake of creating a buffer zone between the Good Old Europe and whatever evils dwell "out there".
As on so many other urgent and important issues, the EU remains divided by default on the question of immigration, and keeps trying old tactics and approaches that have been tested and failed many times. The Migrants Files, a project by a consortium of European journalists, has come up with data showing that Europe is paying much more money in an attempt to get rid of the incoming refugees, than it has dedicated to their integration. Two events from the last few months may have the potential to turn this tendency around. One was the inauguration of the new Juncker team at the EC. They announced right from the get-go that addressing the refugee issue would be one of their top priorities, and the new commissary position in the EC was even named after the immigration issue (it was given to Dimitris Avramopoulos, a Greek).
The other event was the tragedy with the 800 refugees who drowned in the trafficking boat in April. The public outcry from this tragedy gave the new EC team the authority to propose its own European Programme for Integration and Migration (EPIM) for the next 5 years. They outlined the measures that should be urgently taken in response to the crisis situation in the Mediterranean, and the steps that should be made in the following years in order to improve the migration management in all its aspects. The problem is, while the EC did want to take a much more politically clear position on the migration issue, in fact there are still too many division lines passing straight through the middle of European politics, which will be too difficult to overcome.
Right now, Europe is divided in four, in terms of its reaction to the issue. Ireland, Britain and Denmark are in one camp, refusing to be part of a shared approach to the refugee problem. Then there are the countries in the southern periphery like Greece and Italy, who are desperately looking for more support from the EU, due to the enormous pressure they've been subjected to in the last few months, and the emerging crisis situation. Thirdly, there are the countries who've already stated a course of solidarity with the countries in trouble - Germany and Sweden are there. And then, there are the East European countries like Bulgaria and Romania, who are firmly refusing to take additional responsibility.
This division became very apparent at the time of discussing the measures that the European Commission proposed to the European Council. Of course, the urgent measures for countering human trafficking through the Mediterranean were instantly accepted without objections. This includes the Triton and Poseidon operations which are more about patrolling and guarding the borders, rather than saving human lives - despite the assurances of the politicians that this isn't the case. The European Council president Donald Tusk (of Poland) didn't rule out a scenario where smugglers' camps would even be directly attacked - mainly in Libya. This would be a rather complex and costly policy, if adopted. Let alone the potential collateral damage, both human-life-wise and image-wise.
But what's more surprising is the uncomplaining acceptance of the part of that strategy that has demonstrably been its most inefficient part - namely, sea operations. Europe has attempted more than once to deal with smugglers of all sorts in the past - be they alcohol, tobacco or drug dealers. And now we're talking of a much more important cargo: human life. This makes their business even more profitable, so they're much better equipped and better prepared, and destroying their boats could only make them shift to a strategy of using rubber vessels that are easier to sink - and thus throwing the baby out with the water becomes even more likely.
...Putting them all on a boat and then sinking it, may not seem like a bad idea to some right now...
In fact, the fight against organized crime, the interception of illegal trafficking channels, and the decision to assault smuggler camps with force were accepted remarkably easily, despite being such huge, costly operations without any guaranteed success. On the other hand, the mechanism of relocation would be so much cheaper and limited in scope - but strangely, it was *the* main point of contention. Weird.
I'm talking of the most controversial (and probably boldest) point in the plan, the relocation of 40 thousand people from Greece and Italy to other parts of the continent, following a quota principle. And also the relocation of another 22 thousand people from refugee camps in Lebanon into various parts of the EU within the next couple of years. Although the measure is of a very limited scope (most countries would receive about 500-1000 people on average), and it's just a pilot project, it was instantly met with hostility by almost everybody. "Solidarity" again turns out to be the most overrated term in the European policies, and that's bound to additionally reinforce the opinion among the Greek and Italian people that the rest of Europe doesn't actually give a flying fuck about them - or indeed, anybody else but themselves.
And that's far from being the only problem there. But more about the rest, next time.
(no subject)
Date: 28/7/15 13:08 (UTC)And no, we don't mind taking responsibility. In fact, we have done just that. All we want is that this responsibility be shared fairly and proportionally. Just because we happen to be sitting the closest to the front door, doesn't mean those sitting further inside can preach to us about hospitality while bumping anybody we send their way back to us.
(no subject)
Date: 29/7/15 04:49 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 28/7/15 17:11 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 28/7/15 22:34 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 29/7/15 05:49 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 29/7/15 10:20 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 29/7/15 19:54 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 29/7/15 21:10 (UTC)Smells like a strawman.
(no subject)
Date: 5/8/15 21:46 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 6/8/15 08:00 (UTC)