Do not underestimate Jeb

[luzribeiro.livejournal.com]

Jeb Bush ain't exactly the most eloquent speaker. That was evident in his speech where he officially announced that he was running for the Republican nomination. He was anxious, he often reached to the water, and he smiled clumsily for the cams. But on the other hand, Hillary Clinton didn't do too well last week in New York, either. Her eyes were constantly fixated on the text she was reading, and her smile looked rather artificial. Neither Jeb nor Hillary could come anywhere near Barack Obama's oratorical prowess (when he was at his height, anyway). But Obama's days in office are numbered, and the number of wannabe successors are swelling by the day now.

Naturally, the economy was the main subject for both Bush III and Clinton II. Jeb promised to pull the economy upwards by creating 19 million new jobs, and make America an economic superpower. How exactly? He never ventured into detail. He just said he'd do it, period. After all, wasn't he the Florida governor between '99 and '07, when he introduced a relatively balanced budget, cut the state's debts and reformed the education system? Sounds like the guy's got some credentials. Or at least that's what his supporters say.

Jeb Bush may've shown that he can govern a state, which distinguishes him from a number of Republican candidates, like Marco Rubio and Rand Paul. Even from Hillary by the way, who was a senator from New York. None of Jeb's rivals have actually governed anything. Even this fact on its own could sway some voters in his favor.

Contrary to most expectations, Jeb didn't distance himself from the Bush clan. His mom Barbara was sitting beside him as he was delivering that speech. Shortly before that, he had a phone convo with his 91 y.o. dad. Many GOPers might've actually been repulsed if he had tried to distance himself from his own family. While tactics does play a significant role in the election race, family remains intact so far.

Jeb may not be the best orator, but he looks spontaneous, and creates the impression of someone trustworthy. And these things matter for a lot of folks. He does describe himself as "introvert", but that's hardly something anyone would call a flaw. Certainly not the Republican voters. The polls indicate that his speech, as clumsy as it may have been, has earned him a couple of points among the electorate - although in the meantime his visit to Europe went largely unnoticed by the US media.

Still, unlike some of his fellow partymen, he has refrained from making radical statements during his visit in Germany, Poland and the Baltics. That could also be a bonus for him in the long run. But of course it's too early to say if he'll be the GOP's nominee at this point. It's just that he looks the least crazy of them all for the time being. Which may not help him win the presidency, but it could certainly put him in one of the two contender seats.

Comments

[dexeron.livejournal.com]

I can't see my parents ever voting Democratic, but depending on who wins the Republican primary, I think they'd be more voting against Hilary (or Sanders, maybe) than for whoever is standing for the GOP. Jeb, though, I think they'd happily and proudly vote for. They liked him as governor. Hell, I didn't particularly dislike him as governor myself, at the time. He took office before the mad rightward scramble and infiltration by the tea party, so while he was conservative, he was never on the extreme fringe.

At the risk of "damning with faint praise," I guess my thoughts on the guy are: out of a massive field of Republican candidates I could never see myself voting for, he's the guy I probably dislike the least.

[malasadas.livejournal.com]

he was never on the extreme fringe.

[dexeron.livejournal.com]

I'll admit that Overton might be playing tricks with my perceptions. ;)

But when I compare Jeb when he was governor to Rick Scott, or any of the Tea Party crowd, the guy looks like a downright moderate in comparison. Sure, I disagreed with a lot of his policies, but on balance, he did a passable job. He was basically a pretty average governor, and he at least never ran the state into the ground (unlike some other folks high up in GOP circles these days.) Sure, there were some particularly egregious problems, like the handling of the 2000 election, and circuses like the Schiavo case, and some other things out of his control, like the recession, but even so, he certainly wasn't the worst governor we've had.

EDIT: also, I'm more describing my parents' thought process. To them, Bush was a good governor who certainly has distanced himself from the idiocy of some others in the party. So even though they'll vote Republican no matter what, they won't hold their noses to do it for Bush. They'll eagerly do so. I think his appeal, at least to many in South Florida, is underestimated. Folks down here still buy into his schtick.

[telemann.livejournal.com]

Jeb Bush may've shown that he can govern a state, which distinguishes him from a number of Republican candidates, Even from Hillary by the way, who was a senator from New York.

Well, I certainly don't think that's anything to crow about. We heard all this with Bush II, when he ran in 2000:

"Texas is the 2nd largest state in the Union, and George will be a uniter!-guy* in Washington, D.C.!" with plenty of references to the success stories in Texas, much the same Jeb is doing now (he lowered taxes, economics, etc), and even the bit about Governor Bush had ran businesses, which gave him a leg up on Al Gore.
Some elements of "running on that record" can be seen in this Bush ad from the 2000 election cycle.

http://www.livingroomcandidate.org/commercials/2000

And Jeb's foreign policy team (Jeb! (http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/06/jeb-bush-has-a-newish-logo.html)gives a a major foreign policy speech in Chicago this Wednesday) is definitely a repeat performance some what I think are really horrible guys. Paul Wolfowitz, John Negroponte, Stephen Hadley for starters. That's a very scary list.



==================
* the irony to me at the time suggesting that it was Al Gore and Clinton were the chief DIVIDER GUYS, considering the delight the Congressional Republicans and Ken Starr had in going after President Clinton.

[malasadas.livejournal.com]

The idea that anyone even talks to Paul Wolfowitz anymore boggles me.

And I mean just to talk to him. Like saying, "Hi, Paul."

[telemann.livejournal.com]

Hell, don't even let him in ;)

[htpcl.livejournal.com]

Hopefully, at least his mom does. :-)

[dexeron.livejournal.com]

That's my big fear of Jeb! ever winning the Presidency. He brings with him that same damn cadre of assholes with their same moronic policy ideas. It's not that Jeb! is particularly extremist or fringe; it's that the people he'll be leaning on when the challenges pop up are.

[oportet.livejournal.com]

...he has refrained from making radical statements...

I think this is the key - he can Romney2012 his way to the top of the Republican field by being the last one not to say anything batshit crazy.

[mahnmut.livejournal.com]

Oh no. Not another four (eight?) years of neocon bullshit.

[luzribeiro.livejournal.com]

The world can't take any more of that same stuff, can it.

[luvdovz.livejournal.com]

Why, wouldn't it be fun if there's a third Bush in the White House? That'd completely remove the mask of pseudo-democracy from American politics.

[policraticus.livejournal.com]

Eh. Two Bushes are enough, IMO. Even though I respect Jeb (JEB!) well enough, there are too many good options in the GOP field. Its not like I'd never vote for him; if it came down to him or Paul, Jeb would be my choice.

None of Jeb's rivals have actually governed anything.

Suddenly Wisconsin (Walker- 2 terms), Louisiana (Jindel- 2 terms), Texas (Perry- 4 terms), New Jersey (Christie- 2 terms), Arkansas (Huckabee- 2 terms), Ohio (Kasich- 2 terms), Michigan (Snyder- 2 terms) and New York (Pataki- 3 terms) aren't anything?

[telemann.livejournal.com]

Well, NONE of that comes close to 14 seasons of Donald Trump hosting The Apprentice or The Celebrity Apprentice !!!

[policraticus.livejournal.com]

Where is Joseph N. Welch when you need him?

[luzribeiro.livejournal.com]

Fine, but they aren't much, by the looks of it. :)

[badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com]

I'm personally enjoying the continued minimization of Scott Walker from the left.

[sandwichwarrior.livejournal.com]

I'm guessing that its because they don't want to run against him.

By a similar token I suspect that the current over-coverage of Bush and Trump has a lot to do with the fact that they are probably the most "beatable" of the GOP front runners.

[sandwichwarrior.livejournal.com]

None of Jeb's rivals have actually governed anything.

Neither has Obama ;)

[htpcl.livejournal.com]

This just in:

Trump paid actors to cheer his 2016 launch (http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-paid-actors-to-cheer-his-2016-launch-report/ar-AAbJCIZ?ocid=iehp)

Oooh this campaign is gunna be looovely!

[telemann.livejournal.com]

Neil Young was pretty pissed his music ("Rocking in the free world") being played at the Trump announcement / ceremony / ego thingey event.


And this was another in the long and very Republican tradition of using the songs for their own political purposes (http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-long-history-of-musicians-telling-republicans-to-stop-playing-their-music/)that horrify composers and writers.


Ted Nugent can only get you so far!

[htpcl.livejournal.com]

This just in:

Trump paid actors to cheer his 2016 launch (http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-paid-actors-to-cheer-his-2016-launch-report/ar-AAbJCIZ?ocid=iehp)

Oooh this campaign is gunna be looovely!

[dexeron.livejournal.com]

It should be noted that a lot of the candidates in the GOP Clown Car can't have any illusions about their chance. Yet they run anyway. One asks why. I think there are a couple of probable answers:

-By running, they bring attention to issues that otherwise might be overlooked by the mainstream candidates.
-By running, they force the mainstream candidates to give some attention to overlooked wings of the party, and include them in their policymaking.
-By running, they can grab some media attention for a few minutes, and parley that into paid speaking gigs later, and/or TV hosting duties. At the very least, they can get called in as guests on the talking-head shows.

I'd argue that for a lot of them, the third possibility is the most likely. Trump isn't trying to drive policy or force acknowledgement of an overlooked portion of the base. He's in it because that's how he stays "relevant" and continues to make money.

What shocks me is that so many pundits and newspeople continue to act like he's a serious candidate, after having proven in several campaigns just what a joke he is.

[kylinrouge.livejournal.com]

The answer: Money money money money.

[abomvubuso.livejournal.com]

Sounds like a, well, sound investment. Invest in some bread'n'circuses today, potentially have a larger payoff later. As long as there are enough people who continue to fall for the stunt, why not.