China's new big satellite
11/6/15 22:13![[identity profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/openid.png){kind=small}
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talkpoliticsRussia is demonstrating to the West a readiness to turn to the East and become China's main partner, if not ally, in response to the pressure from the West. Just like in the 19th and 20th century, when the Chinese used to give certain territories of theirs to Russia for "leased use" (read: protectorates), now they themselves are about to get thousands of sq km of Russian land for "agricultural activity". On top of that, the Chinese military have now started using Russian territory to convey their training exercises.
Russia is also trying to execute some projects of its own in the Far East, like some free-trade zones, or making Vladivostok an "open port". It's also trying to cooperate with countries like South Korea, Japan and Vietnam, which are a natural counterweight to China in the region, and are themselves looking for support in their political, economic, and recently military confrontations both among themselves and against China.
What's more, Russia seems to be hesitating whom to turn to. At one time it's following the Chinese foreign policy in the region, at another it's delivering modern weapons to China's strongest opponents, like Vietnam. This is causing indignation in the Chinese press, which means that the moods among the Chinese leadership are similar, if not the same - because it controls the media. Another example is how during the umpteenth freezing of the Sino-Japanese relations, Russia sent Putin's close aide Sergei Naryshkin to Japan with the task of discussing possibilities for warming up the Russian-Japanese relations, as well as signing the yet unsigned WW2 peace treaty between Japan and the USSR.
It's evident that these two directions of Russian foreign policy are mutually incompatible. After Crimea and Russia's sharp turn to the East, many South-East Asian governments figured Russia was about to become China's "junior partner". The People's Republic is perceiving itself as the dominant force in the region, with even Japan being unable to counter it, so the Chinese are constantly demonstrating their force, while Japan is waving its friendship with America back into China's face in return. Besides, everyone knows the Chinese foreign-policy tradition does not recognize equal partners, only lesser and larger partners and competitors (similarly to America's, btw). The USSR was the "big bro", and Russia, as per its current economic predicament, could only claim the "small bro" role and nothing more. Which is why many people in the region have decided that Russia is on its way to becoming China's wing-man now.
Of course, the Russian leadership believes otherwise. They think their foreign policy is completely independent. That's why last year's diplomatic rumors that China had started negotiations with the US behind Russia's back, caused a lot of irritation among them. But, due to fear of Russia's increased dependence on China, Putin's circle is apparently unprepared to take the side of China's rivals openly.
It's quite telling, for instance, that just before the G7 meeting, Japan (which has a direct territorial dispute with China in the South China Sea), actively started flirting with Russia. Suddenly, everyone was talking of signing *that* peace treaty, and solving the border quarrel over the Kuril Islands. Eventually, Japan caved in and supported the continuation of the sanctions against Russia, and interrupted the talks on the peace treaty. It openly admitted this turn in their position was mostly due to America's pressure, and the other unmentioned reason must be the lack of an active response from Russia.
So far, Russia has failed to take a clear position on the main disputes in South-East Asia. For example, the president of the Philippines doesn't shy away from comparing China's policy with the behavior of Nazi Germany (yes, Godwin), and Japan and Vietnam are seriously irritated by China's ambitions to snatch the mineral treasures of the South China Sea. Russia doesn't have a position of its own on this issue, and is doing its best to avoid formulating one. It's trying to assume a position ambiguous enough to keep it equally distanced from all players in the region. It neither wants to become China's satellite, nor an ally to China's rivals. In result, Russia remains alien and irrelevant to the region. And this will continue until the moment when it decides to come up with an Asian project of its own. And that should happen soon, if the Russians truly want to turn to the East in a big way as they claim, as opposed to just bluffing in front of the West.
Russia is also trying to execute some projects of its own in the Far East, like some free-trade zones, or making Vladivostok an "open port". It's also trying to cooperate with countries like South Korea, Japan and Vietnam, which are a natural counterweight to China in the region, and are themselves looking for support in their political, economic, and recently military confrontations both among themselves and against China.
What's more, Russia seems to be hesitating whom to turn to. At one time it's following the Chinese foreign policy in the region, at another it's delivering modern weapons to China's strongest opponents, like Vietnam. This is causing indignation in the Chinese press, which means that the moods among the Chinese leadership are similar, if not the same - because it controls the media. Another example is how during the umpteenth freezing of the Sino-Japanese relations, Russia sent Putin's close aide Sergei Naryshkin to Japan with the task of discussing possibilities for warming up the Russian-Japanese relations, as well as signing the yet unsigned WW2 peace treaty between Japan and the USSR.
It's evident that these two directions of Russian foreign policy are mutually incompatible. After Crimea and Russia's sharp turn to the East, many South-East Asian governments figured Russia was about to become China's "junior partner". The People's Republic is perceiving itself as the dominant force in the region, with even Japan being unable to counter it, so the Chinese are constantly demonstrating their force, while Japan is waving its friendship with America back into China's face in return. Besides, everyone knows the Chinese foreign-policy tradition does not recognize equal partners, only lesser and larger partners and competitors (similarly to America's, btw). The USSR was the "big bro", and Russia, as per its current economic predicament, could only claim the "small bro" role and nothing more. Which is why many people in the region have decided that Russia is on its way to becoming China's wing-man now.
Of course, the Russian leadership believes otherwise. They think their foreign policy is completely independent. That's why last year's diplomatic rumors that China had started negotiations with the US behind Russia's back, caused a lot of irritation among them. But, due to fear of Russia's increased dependence on China, Putin's circle is apparently unprepared to take the side of China's rivals openly.
It's quite telling, for instance, that just before the G7 meeting, Japan (which has a direct territorial dispute with China in the South China Sea), actively started flirting with Russia. Suddenly, everyone was talking of signing *that* peace treaty, and solving the border quarrel over the Kuril Islands. Eventually, Japan caved in and supported the continuation of the sanctions against Russia, and interrupted the talks on the peace treaty. It openly admitted this turn in their position was mostly due to America's pressure, and the other unmentioned reason must be the lack of an active response from Russia.
So far, Russia has failed to take a clear position on the main disputes in South-East Asia. For example, the president of the Philippines doesn't shy away from comparing China's policy with the behavior of Nazi Germany (yes, Godwin), and Japan and Vietnam are seriously irritated by China's ambitions to snatch the mineral treasures of the South China Sea. Russia doesn't have a position of its own on this issue, and is doing its best to avoid formulating one. It's trying to assume a position ambiguous enough to keep it equally distanced from all players in the region. It neither wants to become China's satellite, nor an ally to China's rivals. In result, Russia remains alien and irrelevant to the region. And this will continue until the moment when it decides to come up with an Asian project of its own. And that should happen soon, if the Russians truly want to turn to the East in a big way as they claim, as opposed to just bluffing in front of the West.
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Date: 12/6/15 06:39 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 12/6/15 10:36 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 12/6/15 17:48 (UTC)