Not truly Scotland

[ddstory.livejournal.com]

One day it was there, then it was gone. The whole drama about the Catalan independence referendum has been dragging on for months, and it's far from over.

First there was Scotland, and now Spain's richest province which already has some autonomy, is fed up with carrying the poorer Spanish regions on its back, and has decided to flirt with secession a little bit. Last month the Catalan president Artur Mas signed a decree for a referendum on November 9. But the central government in Madrid were prepared to do everything to prevent that from happening. They requested from the Constitutional Court to declare the referendum illegal. The court did block the vote until it could come up with a final decision - and conveniently, that could take years.

So, Mas was forced to cancel his campaign, but he refused to admit full defeat, and has called an alternative vote instead, which he's calling "consultation with the citizens". It'll involve ballots too, but technically won't be in violation of the law, since it'll be non-binding and symbolic. Obviously, Artur Mas considers that a warm-up to the "real" referendum, and is now planning to make the real vote coincide with the next Catalan elections.

We could say Madrid has won this round, but that definitely doesn't solve the problem, but only postpones it for a later time. Exactly how determined the Catalans are to have a real referendum and how deep the rift between Barcelona and Madrid has become, is visible by the fact that when Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy called the cancallation of the independence campaign "excellent news", Artur Mas responded with, "Sometimes such news lasts only for a few hours".

After Mas' decision to give way, tens of thousands of Catalans gathered in Barcelona and called for snap local elections. They waved the red-and-yellow stripes that's the symbol of Catalan independence, and chanted "Now is the time!" and "We are ready!" From here on, the most probable scenario is to have local elections in the first quarter of next year. The question is whether the separatist parties will be running together or their votes in favor of secession will be spreaded among the various factions.

The snap vote could be a step closer to secession, because the radical separatist ERC party looks like the front-runner right now. It's a coalition partner with Mas's CiU, which has already expressed discontent with the "retreat" of the Catalan president, and the half-assed solution of this "pseudo-poll" that they're going to have now. ERC has called for civil disobedience, an illegal referendum and a unilateral declaration of independence. Their softest compromise scenario is to have snap elections, otherwise they'll withdraw their support from the local government. Meanwhile, CiU which mostly includes members of Mas' separatist CDC and the non-separatist UDC, is threatened with splitting apart, the UDC already hinting that they could form a new centrist coalition specially for these elections. Mas insists that the ERC should join forces with his party, but the radicals could decide to run on their own instead.

All in all, Rajoy can breathe with relief - for now. He has welcomed Mas' decision to cancel the referendum and stated that "a new page of dialogue" has been opened. But he also emphasized that he'd block the non-binding poll too, if it proved illegal. It's still unclear if the Catalan authorities are prepared to start negotiations, and last week Mas even called the Spanish state "an enemy". In Jule he presented Rajoy with a package of measures, including increasing the expenses of the central government in Catalunya's favor, which is the economic engine of the country, although it's also among the regions with the highest debt. Meanwhile, answering Catalunya's pleas, Madrid has announced that next year it's starting to reform the way the Spanish provinces are being funded. The hope is that this could be the basis for a future agreement between the two sides. Except, Rajoy and Mas haven't ever met since July, and that's worrying.

Catalunya prides in its distinct identity and language. Its drive for independence is not from yesterday, but it has surely gained momentum in recent years, fueled by the Spanish crisis and the drastic austerity measures. The province is highly industrialized, has a 7.5 million population and an economy the size of 193 billion euros - which makes it the strongest among the Spanish regions, and the largest contributor for the national GDP. In fact it contributes much more than its gets in terms of funding from the central government. But the reasons for the separatist tendencies are as cultural as they're economic. For example, the Catalans suspect that Madrid is trying to undermine the Catalan language and promote Spanish as the sole language in school. Thus, the independence campaign constitutes 50% patriotism and 50% economy.

The latest polls indicade that the majority of Catalans want a referendum, but are almost evenly split on the independence issue. People who've come to the streets want to defend their right of defining their own future, so they favor a symbolic poll almost overwhelmingly. The polls suggest that 80% of the Catalans want to be given the chance to choose between one and the other option. Some insist on having real federalism within Spain, while others, disillusioned with the federalist experience altogether, want nothing short of independence.

The Catalan challenge is not just a domestic national issue for Spain. The European Commission has sent a clear signal how things look from Brussel's perspective. Now former EU foreign minister Viviane Reding has said it outright that after a possible "Yes" on a secession referendum, Catalunya will be immediately out of the EU, out of the euro system, and the Catalans will be stripped of their EU citizenship. What's more, she has warned that the new state will find it extremely difficult to find the way back to the EU, since the acceptance of new member states requires the unanimous support of all current members. Sounds familiar, eh? That's exactly how David Cameron used to scare the Scots into voting "No" on their referendum.

One of the options for solving the problem with the stubborn province is the so called asymmetrical federalism, where Catalunya and other provinces would be given more autonomy within Spain, while other regions would not enjoy that privilege. But Rajoy's conservative government so far rejects this "middle path", which the opposition socialists are pushing for.

The economic crisis has helped inflame separatist aspirations in many other corners of Europe, all places where potential regional conflicts have lingered for years. It has added legitimacy to the argument that the central governments and the detached bureaucratic apparatus of Brussels are an obstacle to the development of regions that are otherwise quite prosperous. But the Scottish "No" may've brought some relief to the fans of national unity. It was a blow on the ambitions of various separatists from Spain to Belgium to Italy, and the separatist movement may've started losing some of its momentum. But the feeling remains that there's just one sparkle needed to re-ignite the old feuds.

In Scotland's case, many were hoping that people would vote for independence and that would become a model to emulate. Instead, a powerful message was sent that giving the right of a democratic choice does not necessarily lead to automatic secession. In that sense, Madrid's approach is counterproductive, because Scotland clearly showed exactly how people felt that their right of choice meant more responsibility, and they made what they believed was the responsible decision. The refusal of the Spanish government to even negotiate leads to more anger and discontent, and gives more ammo to the separatist rationale. Unfortunately, it's a model we're seeing elsewhere. Madrid may've nipped the referendum in its bud, but they certainly haven't removed the problem, only aggravated it. And it's naive to believe that the tensions and the secessionist appetites would somehow fade away on their own.