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talkpoliticsLast month around the same time the Spanish royal dynasty launched their own Twitter feed. All random visitors were being treated to a warm verbal welcome after having chanced upon the virtual royal court. They could see photos of the royal family there, shaking hands with various people, prince Felipe sporting a shiny military uniform; greeting cards for his wedding anniversay with Laetitia sparkling across the page... About two weeks after the start of the new media campaign of the royals, the first not-so-sugary piece of news was published, about the planned abdication of Juan Carlos.
Obviously the new Twitter strategy enjoys some success, although not as huge as that of the British royals. Apparently, starting some activity on the social networks is the latest fad that's been invented by the royal PR experts, aiming to increase the waning popularity of monarchism among the Spaniards. Seems like the royals really need that, because it's a fact that for many people in Spain, the slightly unexpected resignation of the king is in fact a natural consequence of the fading support for monarchy in the country.
There's some symbolism in the fact that on the day of Felipe's crowning, May 19, the flags with the Second Republic insignia were sold out in all Madrid shops and couldn't be found anywhere around. People were putting them at their windows as a protest against the crowning, which seemed a bit rash to them. It's a fact that the new king is far from being as popular as Juan Carlos was at his time. What's more, there've been fierce protests across Spain lately against the continuation of the monarchy. Well, there weren't protests on the day of the crowning itself, granted, but that's just because those were officially banned.
The two major parties approved a bill in the parliament, which granted Juan Carlos the opportunity to give up the throne in favor of his son. But the Spanish laws don't give a chance for referendum about the form of state government, or an approval vote for the new king, which is what most minor parties insist on. Meanwhile, the polls show that over 2/3 of the Spanish would like to have a say in these matters.
It's very likely that the result of such a vote wouldn't be much to the liking of the republicans, though: similar polls show that half of the Spanish would vote in favor of monarchy and would approve Felipe if given the chance, and 1/3 would vote for a republic. That's not to say that more than half of them don't want a referendum on monarchy anyway. Well, those who support the status quo are most likely doing it not so much for sympathies for the monarchy, but because they're concerned about potential political instability.
The economic crisis has brough a political crisis to Spain as well, which was distinctly visible at the recent election for European parliament, where both major parties couldn't get even half of the votes combined. So a possible debate about monarchy would further polarize the country and have the same disruptive influence like the demands of the Catalans to split away from the country. So, most Spaniards might be supporting Felipe for king out of mere pragmatism, because they'd rather avoid unnecessary problems.
Although Rajoy's conservative party is still ruling with absolute majority, Spain is far from being politically stable. The polls indicate that if there were elections today, neither of the two major parties would get a majority and be able to form a government. The real star on the scene now is the new leftist party Podemos (ironically, the name means Yes We Can). They got 8% at the last elections. Curiously, its founders are from the circle of former Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez. They consider the national debt "illegitimate" and call for defaulting on it. If we take the results of the many various smaller parties in consideration (especially those on the left, which share similar demands), those could easily collect 1/4 of the vote. Which is why many think a constitutional reform might be urgently necessary now - Catalunya is pushing ever harder for secession, and people in general are deeply distrusting of the political establishment.
This constitutional change might have to re-arrange the political prerogatives of the institutions, re-organize the tax system and the way it is being governed between the central government and the regions, and find a way to make the parliamentary composition more reflective of the actual election results. Meaning: better representation. Such a reform could become inevitable if none of the major parties manages to achieve majority at next year's parliamentary elections. But a broad consensus would be needed for such constitutional reform, and for the time being it doesn't seem very likely to happen.
So the young king Felipe will be faced with this first, and very tough task: achieving such a consensus. He is ascending to the throne in a country where almost no convinced monarchists have remained, and where people's trust to the democratic institutions (so deftly promoted by his predecessor) has been at an all-time low. In 1978 the Spanish overwhelmingly supported Juan Carlos and his Constitution, because it heralded the beginning of a new era of democracy. Now Felipe doesn't have such a bonus on his record. His only chance of earning some trust and respect resides with his people's striving for political stability.
Obviously the new Twitter strategy enjoys some success, although not as huge as that of the British royals. Apparently, starting some activity on the social networks is the latest fad that's been invented by the royal PR experts, aiming to increase the waning popularity of monarchism among the Spaniards. Seems like the royals really need that, because it's a fact that for many people in Spain, the slightly unexpected resignation of the king is in fact a natural consequence of the fading support for monarchy in the country.
There's some symbolism in the fact that on the day of Felipe's crowning, May 19, the flags with the Second Republic insignia were sold out in all Madrid shops and couldn't be found anywhere around. People were putting them at their windows as a protest against the crowning, which seemed a bit rash to them. It's a fact that the new king is far from being as popular as Juan Carlos was at his time. What's more, there've been fierce protests across Spain lately against the continuation of the monarchy. Well, there weren't protests on the day of the crowning itself, granted, but that's just because those were officially banned.
The two major parties approved a bill in the parliament, which granted Juan Carlos the opportunity to give up the throne in favor of his son. But the Spanish laws don't give a chance for referendum about the form of state government, or an approval vote for the new king, which is what most minor parties insist on. Meanwhile, the polls show that over 2/3 of the Spanish would like to have a say in these matters.
It's very likely that the result of such a vote wouldn't be much to the liking of the republicans, though: similar polls show that half of the Spanish would vote in favor of monarchy and would approve Felipe if given the chance, and 1/3 would vote for a republic. That's not to say that more than half of them don't want a referendum on monarchy anyway. Well, those who support the status quo are most likely doing it not so much for sympathies for the monarchy, but because they're concerned about potential political instability.
The economic crisis has brough a political crisis to Spain as well, which was distinctly visible at the recent election for European parliament, where both major parties couldn't get even half of the votes combined. So a possible debate about monarchy would further polarize the country and have the same disruptive influence like the demands of the Catalans to split away from the country. So, most Spaniards might be supporting Felipe for king out of mere pragmatism, because they'd rather avoid unnecessary problems.
Although Rajoy's conservative party is still ruling with absolute majority, Spain is far from being politically stable. The polls indicate that if there were elections today, neither of the two major parties would get a majority and be able to form a government. The real star on the scene now is the new leftist party Podemos (ironically, the name means Yes We Can). They got 8% at the last elections. Curiously, its founders are from the circle of former Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez. They consider the national debt "illegitimate" and call for defaulting on it. If we take the results of the many various smaller parties in consideration (especially those on the left, which share similar demands), those could easily collect 1/4 of the vote. Which is why many think a constitutional reform might be urgently necessary now - Catalunya is pushing ever harder for secession, and people in general are deeply distrusting of the political establishment.
This constitutional change might have to re-arrange the political prerogatives of the institutions, re-organize the tax system and the way it is being governed between the central government and the regions, and find a way to make the parliamentary composition more reflective of the actual election results. Meaning: better representation. Such a reform could become inevitable if none of the major parties manages to achieve majority at next year's parliamentary elections. But a broad consensus would be needed for such constitutional reform, and for the time being it doesn't seem very likely to happen.
So the young king Felipe will be faced with this first, and very tough task: achieving such a consensus. He is ascending to the throne in a country where almost no convinced monarchists have remained, and where people's trust to the democratic institutions (so deftly promoted by his predecessor) has been at an all-time low. In 1978 the Spanish overwhelmingly supported Juan Carlos and his Constitution, because it heralded the beginning of a new era of democracy. Now Felipe doesn't have such a bonus on his record. His only chance of earning some trust and respect resides with his people's striving for political stability.
(no subject)
Date: 26/6/14 09:50 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 26/6/14 14:22 (UTC)And this doesn't end just at the "common-folk" level. Last year there was a string of top-level political scandals. Leading politicians were involved. The nation was stunned by the constant news about dirty deals, corruption and other disgusting practices, while personally resorting to that, themselves. Things are not looking good at all, although a brief stroll downtown in any Spanish town would suggest otherwise, seeing all those procrastinating folks sitting around the cafes, drinking wine and chatting loudly.
The coronation did provide a temporary distraction, but reality is back all over Spain again, and Felipe can't do a thing about it.
(no subject)
Date: 26/6/14 19:46 (UTC)I still think monarchy is archaic and serves no real use beyond tourism.
(no subject)
Date: 27/6/14 06:42 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 27/6/14 10:50 (UTC)I'm not questioning your Old Man's opinion of the country, or the people...but Spain's political system at the time was pretty awful.