[identity profile] nairiporter.livejournal.com posting in [community profile] talkpolitics

During a recent conversation, I have heard two diametrically opposite views on Elizabeth Warren and her prospects of running for president:

1) "The only thing that can stop Hilary Clinton becoming president is... Elizabeth Warren."

2) "I just don't see Warren viable this election cycle. She would certainly splinter the base and threaten any attempt to retake control of the House."

This has made me curious. So I investigated a little further.

First of all, who's Elizabeth Warren? And who needs to know? First and foremost, all "patients" who have been stung by bank(ster)s reaching into their pockets in one form or another, and then getting away with it (and even using taxpayer bailout money to distribute bonuses among their staff for a "job well done" in tanking the global financial system).

No doubt, Wall Street is somewhat concerned about Elizabeth Warren now being present in the federal Senate. She was a main factor for the creation of the federal institution that is entrusted with the task of protecting customers in the financial sphere, and now her election for Senator would certainly stimulate her desire to introduce banking reform and new rules in the banking loans system. She has focused on three points: 1) usury; 2) profiteering through deception and fraud; 3) the role of rules in any system, particularly the banking system, and the importance of respecting those rules - and the role of the state as the institution that defines those rules, and subsequently enforces them. Yes, she is a "big government" believer if we are to use the typical conservative talking-point terminology - but a government that genuinely serves its people, not its elites.

And as such, I believe she has no chance of becoming president. Sadly. Either she will be promptly squashed under the weight of the system, or she will rather enter the system, figure that the only way to try to reform it is to join it and play by its rules (which are often dirty) - and will eventually be compelled to start making compromises with her principles, which will ultimately dilute her mission, and thus doom it to failure.

Apart from that, it is truly remarkable how Ms Warren has focused a lot of hopes and expectations upon herself, which is indicated by the 40 million dollars that her campaign managed to garner, mostly through small private donations. This indeed speaks of an overwhelmingly grassroots character of her base (as opposed to the Koch-style super-PAC conglomerates), although there have been progressive PACs that have contributed to her campaign as well. In a way, she may remind of the "early Obama", the community organiser who used to enthrall the public, and inspire them to get involved in politics.

Her main weapon is her honesty and the firmness of her principles. She believes that a set of clear and transparent rules are what would level the game between the vastly powerful banking sector and ordinary American families. The problem is, DC does not tolerate such sort of politicians, and tends to find ways to tear them apart, chew them, and finally spit them out, utterly wasted and defeated - or conversely, transformed into something their original supporters would be disgusted from. And I'm talking of both parties here, because, from the perspective of the 99% and the 1%, they are both part of the establishment. And the elite would not relinquish its stranglehold on the political process, and hence, its dominion on society.

(no subject)

Date: 16/6/14 14:38 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] htpcl.livejournal.com
See, we have a saying over here: "A white bird doesn't bring spring".

Meaning, although the albino bird is usually considered to be good omens, the arrival of a single bird doesn't mean spring has come, i.e. you need many more specimens of that species in order to make a difference.
Edited Date: 16/6/14 14:53 (UTC)

(no subject)

Date: 16/6/14 16:28 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] luzribeiro.livejournal.com
I don't think the voters are going to tolerate a second populist nominee in a row...

...Just kidding. :-)

(no subject)

Date: 16/6/14 17:57 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] mahnmut.livejournal.com
Unfortunately, I'll have to agree with your sentiment. There's no way that the powers that be would allow this new sort of fuckery in their midst.

(no subject)

Date: 16/6/14 21:35 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] the-rukh.livejournal.com
Its not some evil "they" conspiracy, she's just not going to get the support she needs without compromising on some things, and doing the politics thing. And for that, she's going to have to be more centrist than she is. And, if somehow she did get her name on the ticket over Hillary, she's just not going to get the votes for the position. Maybe someday that'll change, but I'd much rather see people start voting for presidents based on their leadership and experience instead of if you personally agree with their political opinions. Not going to happen while the parties are so far apart though.

(no subject)

Date: 16/6/14 21:59 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] mahnmut.livejournal.com
There's no "conspiracy". There are no grey aliens hiding behind curtains, nor shapeshifting lizard Illuminati or neural wave machines. It's just that the political system has been designed in a way that would prevent politicians that fail to fit into it, from entering it, or staying within it for too long.

(no subject)

Date: 16/6/14 23:12 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] anfalicious.livejournal.com
It's not so much that it's been designed as evolved.

(no subject)

Date: 17/6/14 04:25 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] peristaltor.livejournal.com
Ever heard of Lewis Powell, Jr. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lewis_F._Powell,_Jr.)? You might want to read his memo (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lewis_F._Powell,_Jr.#Powell_Memorandum).

Much of what has happened can be traced to this letter.

(no subject)

Date: 17/6/14 07:07 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] mahnmut.livejournal.com
The aliens, obviously.

Image
Edited Date: 17/6/14 08:06 (UTC)

(no subject)

Date: 16/6/14 21:23 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] the-rukh.livejournal.com
I'm not so pessimistic about her ambitions but I don't see her as presidential material in the current climate.

(no subject)

Date: 16/6/14 21:53 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] malasadas.livejournal.com
I honestly think she is magnificent for the Senate.

(no subject)

Date: 16/6/14 22:17 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] yes-justice.livejournal.com
I'm try to see how this arguments differs from the arguments made against Obama in 2006/7.
Edited Date: 16/6/14 22:17 (UTC)

(no subject)

Date: 16/6/14 22:29 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com
To be fair, at least Warren has a role in the Senate. Obama wasn't doing anything especially interesting while he was there.

Now, whether Warren is showing even a little bit of knowledge in her activity in the Senate is a different discussion. I'm personally ashamed she's my Senator.

(no subject)

Date: 16/6/14 22:41 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] yes-justice.livejournal.com
Ashamed? Did she eat children? Why the shame?

(no subject)

Date: 16/6/14 23:02 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com
Besides the campaign nonsense, the fact that she's so eager to write away my rights with her money in politics spiels and keeps proposing that risky student loan purchasers get the same rates as banks get on overnight loans is simply ignorance and is an embarrassment. She's somehow been worse than I anticipated, and the fact that she's so outside of mainstream thought and that there's the House to act as a stopgap is the only solace.

(no subject)

Date: 16/6/14 22:57 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] the-rukh.livejournal.com
Obama wasn't my first choice either ;)

The difference is Obama is a centrist. That does make me like his political positions less, but it allows him to win. Also he had a phenomenal way of motivating people. Maybe Warren will pull that out somehow, but I don't see it right off.

Also she was born in Oklahoma City, and that immediately makes me think she hiding some deep defect.

(no subject)

Date: 17/6/14 02:29 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] telemann.livejournal.com
That question (who is more liberal or mainstream) came up in the 2008 race.

Image

But here is Vote View's report on that topic in April of 2008 (http://voteview.com/Clinton_and_Obama.htm) using the DW-NOMINATE system. And according to Vote View, Obama is the most centrist president since LBJ.


We find that President Obama is the most ideologically moderate Democratic president in the post-war period, with a first dimension DW-NOMINATE Common Space score of -0.329. President Lyndon Johnson, the second-most moderate Democratic president in this period, has a score of -0.345. President Obama’s ideological position is estimated from his “votes” (statements of support or opposition) on 282 congressional roll call votes. This amount is somewhat low; for example, President George W. Bush “voted” 453 times during his last term in office. However, it is adequate to recover his latent ideological score.


More here. (http://voteview.com/blog/?p=735)

(no subject)

Date: 16/6/14 22:42 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] vehemencet-t.livejournal.com
The problem is, DC does not tolerate such sort of politicians, and tends to find ways to tear them apart, chew them, and finally spit them out, utterly wasted and defeated - or conversely, transformed into something their original supporters would be disgusted from. And I'm talking of both parties here, because, from the perspective of the 99% and the 1%, they are both part of the establishment. And the elite would not relinquish its stranglehold on the political process, and hence, its dominion on society.

See an anarchist like me finds myself wondering why, if you really, truly see that this is how the political system in the U.S. currently works, you dont go outside of it completely. This is the kind of thinking that led Occupy to embrace its diverse range of non and even antipolitical actions. From this perspective we can't win from inside the system through reforming it--it is designed to prevent this. Thus large-scale political, social and economic changes are necessary and the only thing which can gain the kind of momentum and staying power needed are autonomous mass movements. Or at least that's how i see it.

(no subject)

Date: 16/6/14 23:02 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] anfalicious.livejournal.com
I don't think you even have to be anarchist to see that.

(no subject)

Date: 17/6/14 03:04 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] vehemencet-t.livejournal.com
But I don't think it's hard to follow the logic of the path from there to become one either. So I gueas it just surprises me for all the people who say that's how they really see the political system here in the U.S., there aren't more self-avowed anarchists among us.

(no subject)

Date: 17/6/14 03:42 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] the-rukh.livejournal.com
I guess most people don't want to throw the baby out with the bathwater as its a terrible idea.

(no subject)

Date: 17/6/14 21:28 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] vehemencet-t.livejournal.com
Ah, well I guess that's why, historically, the elites have always won when popular disenfranchisement reaches such abysmal levels as to spark revolutions. People accept concessions rather than face the hard road of self-liberation. So those in power stay in power in some form or another, while those who refuse to take the carrot, get beaten to death with the stick. For progress!

(no subject)

Date: 17/6/14 22:43 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] the-rukh.livejournal.com
Hard road to suicide. The elites are the ones with the resources.

(no subject)

Date: 18/6/14 00:38 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] vehemencet-t.livejournal.com
Because they took control of them away from the rest of us. Take it back.

There's no reason why a minority should have the right to control the majority of resources which EVERYONE needs and use that control to get us to obey them, work for them, etc. It should be shared by everyone.

(no subject)

Date: 17/6/14 04:22 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] anfalicious.livejournal.com
Most people are anarchist for a time during their teen years, then they become adults and stop believing in fairy tales. Although, given how religious the US is, it seems adults there are A-OK with fairy tales, so it is a surprise there aren't more anarchists.

/snark :P

Actually, I think it has more to do with people either don't like tax, or view politicians as only a step above child molesters, but love the government doing stuff. People like roads.

(no subject)

Date: 17/6/14 04:35 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] vehemencet-t.livejournal.com
Right. And I guess these people don't understand that other people build those roads, not some nebulous machine called "The Government" and that if communities need roads, there is no reason why they cannot work together to build them without having to accept all the nasty stuff about the state us anarchists don't like.

Also some very smart people are anarchists, like Noam Chomsky for example, so it's more than just a teenage fairy tail.

(no subject)

Date: 16/6/14 23:01 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] anfalicious.livejournal.com
Too liberal to be prez, so she can have more impact staying in the senate.

(no subject)

Date: 16/6/14 23:34 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] the-rukh.livejournal.com
Basically. The senate makes law. People who have strong ideological views should gun for senate. The white house ideally should enforce laws. Its become so partisan its all about getting the guy who agrees with you on wedge issues in to the spot, and I think that hurts leadership. Of course, the president is one guy, the office has tons of people.

(no subject)

Date: 17/6/14 04:35 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] peristaltor.livejournal.com
First up, Warren was not "fired" by Obama. He realized (after painfully obvious maneuvering) that she would never get confirmed as CFPB head, so he appointed someone else. This freed her for her Senate run. That graphic is just plain wrong.

Other than that, yup (http://www.ted.com/talks/lawrence_lessig_we_the_people_and_the_republic_we_must_reclaim).

(no subject)

Date: 17/6/14 21:04 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] peristaltor.livejournal.com
My bad. The entire issue has been so reduced to ridiculousness that even hints of deliberate ridicule are getting lost on me.

(no subject)

Date: 17/6/14 14:42 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] underlankers.livejournal.com
From a purely political point of view, Warren has two things going for her: genuine adherence to progressive causes and the absence of the easy 'do you want the Presidency to become a Clinton family institution' line of rhetoric.

(no subject)

Date: 17/6/14 21:31 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] vehemencet-t.livejournal.com
I think the "family line" criticism has been easily dismissed since the Roosevelts, and more recenty by Bush Sr. and Bush H.W.
Edited Date: 17/6/14 21:31 (UTC)

(no subject)

Date: 18/6/14 06:37 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] luvdovz.livejournal.com
Dismissal =/= refutation.

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