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talkpoliticsI've been hearing the following argument (or something to the same effect) quite frequently as of late,
"Putin's tolerance of economic hardship is fairly high, considering the fact that "hardship" pretty much defines the Russian economy. And we have to admit that EU and American tolerance for the kind of pushback available to the man who supplies most of Europe's natural gas is, to put it politely, lacking."
Well, except Russia is gradually changing, and probably mostly due to Putin's domestic policies (which might ironically end up biting him on the ass eventually: see below).
See, there's a middle class in Russia now. The ones pushing from below the oligarchs who are effectively pulling the strings. Deprive them of their nice living conditions and their newly asserted position, and revert to Hardship Default Mode, and watch how heads start rolling. Starting with the chief head. I've met some of those guys. Talked with them, been doing business with them. I can tell you Putin is not exactly the messiah in the eyes of his people that the media are trying to present him as. He's just their most convenient option - for the time being.
The Russian middle class are what drives the Russian economy, apart from energy resource exports. They're the 2nd level beneath the oligarchic network which holds that country together, and sustains the regime. That Putin is still in power, is because he's giving them what they want. The moment he stops to, he's done. And no, I don't mean through means of revolution. There are other tools for influencing one's presumably omnipotent power structure. Some have started voting with their feet (and wallets). Others might be contemplating if there aren't, by chance, better options in terms of a ruler. Granted, they might not have found one for the time being, but that's not because Putin is so awesome - it's because his opponents are much weaker, and the oligarchic establishment in the country finds the current status quo preferable. That is, for now.
"Putin's tolerance of economic hardship is fairly high, considering the fact that "hardship" pretty much defines the Russian economy. And we have to admit that EU and American tolerance for the kind of pushback available to the man who supplies most of Europe's natural gas is, to put it politely, lacking."
Well, except Russia is gradually changing, and probably mostly due to Putin's domestic policies (which might ironically end up biting him on the ass eventually: see below).
See, there's a middle class in Russia now. The ones pushing from below the oligarchs who are effectively pulling the strings. Deprive them of their nice living conditions and their newly asserted position, and revert to Hardship Default Mode, and watch how heads start rolling. Starting with the chief head. I've met some of those guys. Talked with them, been doing business with them. I can tell you Putin is not exactly the messiah in the eyes of his people that the media are trying to present him as. He's just their most convenient option - for the time being.
The Russian middle class are what drives the Russian economy, apart from energy resource exports. They're the 2nd level beneath the oligarchic network which holds that country together, and sustains the regime. That Putin is still in power, is because he's giving them what they want. The moment he stops to, he's done. And no, I don't mean through means of revolution. There are other tools for influencing one's presumably omnipotent power structure. Some have started voting with their feet (and wallets). Others might be contemplating if there aren't, by chance, better options in terms of a ruler. Granted, they might not have found one for the time being, but that's not because Putin is so awesome - it's because his opponents are much weaker, and the oligarchic establishment in the country finds the current status quo preferable. That is, for now.
