Some questions on the debt ceiling... and then some more

[luzribeiro.livejournal.com]

Frankly, I haven't stopped watching this counter for a few minutes. It's mesmerizing:

U.S. National Debt Clock: Real Time

Alright. Now that all most of the hubbub surrounding the shenanigans on Capitol Hill has subsided somewhat, time to get back on topic, i.e. "Speculative Scenarios". And the topic I'm gonna occupy you with, is again... the debt ceiling! :)

Anyone know for sure what would've happened if Thursday came and went and Congress was still stuck at an impasse without being able to raise the debt ceiling? It's not like the US won't arrive at exactly the same point next year, right? Sure, we already know that, simplistically put, not raising the debt ceiling would mean the government would no longer have the authority to borrow money to pay its bills. Sounds bad at a first reading, that's for sure.

But what next? What would be the longer-term consequences? Could someone more well-versed in the financial matters spell it out to me, step by step? 'Cause, from what I've been able to gather from the various talking-heads on the media, it all sounds like a nightmare scenario. The government no longer being able to pay the interest on the debt, financial markets sinking, social security checks being delayed, and ultimately, another recession? Am I on the right track?

What exactly is the idea behind a borrowing limit? What's the rationale behind it? For a time it seemed to me-the-layperson that the US had deliberately put a system of obstacles and traps in its own path, relying that it'd never even consider stepping into them (deliberately) - only to realize that yes, yes it's perfectly possible to step into your own traps (as seen in the recent days). Or shoot yourself in the leg. Or stick a muddy rug inside your own throat. Etc.

And, since the national debt limit had already been reached once in May this year, isn't any subsequent measure that's been taken by the Treasury only an effort to postpone the inevitable, and treat cocaine addiction with increased cocaine intake? (Or as the PC term is, "extraordinary measures"). It's all starting to look more and more like an inflating balloon which can't go on pumping up forever.

Just one more thing I may not be competent enough to grasp. Couldn't the president just, you know, ignore the borrowing limit? From the 14th Amendment: "The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law ... shall not be questioned". So does he or does he not have the authority to do that? Is "authorized by law" = "sanctioned by Congress"? And even if not so, would any investor buy bonds issued without congressional approval?

And while we're about the markets, ultimately, how would investors meet the news that the government of the world's presumed economic superpower has been compelled to prioritize among its payments, giving precedence of some of its obligations but falling behind on others? And all that said, in these circumstances why should anyone be surprised that governments around the world are already seriously considering shifting away from the US dollar as a reserve currency? How many more countries would have to be threatened of being bombed after having done that step, before a critical threshold is reached where national treasuries worldwide would start abandoning the increasingly worthless main US export (namely: green papers), regardless of the potential repercussions for such a bold/crazy action?

I know. These are probably too many questions. But, see, we furrinners have been compelled to listen to this stuff over and over for many many days now, so, methinks you guys do owe us at least some small explanation, even if it comes in the form of funny macros. I'm all ears/eyes!

Comments

[brother-dour.livejournal.com]

From what I understand, the following would have happened:

~ everyone's interest rates would have went up (credit rating downgrade)
~ senior citizens would have been storming DC over Social Security checks
~ Recession 2.0!
~ All our foreign creditors would be pissed
~ the Teabaggers would continue to play their fiddles

[ironhawke.livejournal.com]

In fact, Social Security affects many more people than just the retired oldies. Children who have lost a parent prior to turning 18 are entitled to death benefits, many disabled people are on disability, and 10s of thousands of others receive some sort of SSI payouts each month, many of whom (myself included, not disability) rely on those payments to make ends meet.

[brother-dour.livejournal.com]

Of course. But old people vote a lot, which is why they got special mention.