[identity profile] allhatnocattle.livejournal.com posting in [community profile] talkpolitics
It's looks like Syria is about to be attacked (if it hasn't started already) by coalition of France, USA and UK. The premise is supposed to stop the Syrians from poison gassing of it's own people in order to stop rebellion.

At issue however is Russia will not want to loose it's huge military base in Syria. It would be like USA loosing it's base in Saudi Arabia.

Not to forget Russia securing the oil. Saudi has not only made a deal to secure Russia future oil contract if it stays out, but has threatened Russia if it becomes involved. Specifically, Saudi Arabia threatening to unleash Chechen terrorists on the Sochi Olympics isn't helping the situation. Saudi Prince claims the Chechens are controlled by them.

If USA goes to war on Syria, Russia will be forced to defend it. By defending Syria I mean attacking Saudi Arabia. What we have here is a potential WW3.


Reuters reports that Russia is preparing to withdraw some (certain) personal from the Base, which US news seems to read as Russia is getting out of the kitchen. However, Putin himself just ordered a MASSIVE MILITARY STRIKE AGAINST SAUDI ARABIA if/when Syria is attacked. In refusing the threat (that Saudi will use Chechen terrorists under Saudi Arabian control to attack Russia,) Putin said from the Kremlin, "Our position on Assad will never change. We believe the Syrian Regime is the best speaker on behalf of the Syrian people, and not those liver eaters".  Frankly this scares the shit out of me. Russia will defend Assad. Russia will attack Saudi Arabia.

This confirms Russian fears that Saudi Arabia is pushing for war Russian conspiracy from the Russian Foreign Ministry's Aleksandr Lukashevich believe's the chemical weapons accusation is an American false flag operation  similar to the accusation of WMD's in Iraq. This is merely conspiracy yet it is confirmed within Wikileaks Syria Files that plans to topple Syria (as well as Iran) with false flags have been in the works for some years now.

The UN inspectors have yet to complete their difficult mission investigating these chemical weapon attacks, despite USA's John Kerry boldly stating the "facts are undeniable" The UN inspectors are expected to report their finding on Saturday. This could be delayed as inspectors have been shot at by snipers. Who those snipers are working for isn't exactly clear.

Bottom line is what we all want is basic freedom, and by that we usually mean safety and security for all people. All the other implications of freedom come secondary. We don't care if a country has freedom of press as long as people have a sense of personal safety. I assume this is the international norm Kerry was talking about. That would be what I read into the general foreign policy of USA in recent decades. Our sense of freedom doesn't respect the sovereignty of a nation when it attacks it's own peoples. However, going to war in Syria will (in all likelihood) have wider consequences then simply protecting the population. Consequences could mean WW3.

(no subject)

Date: 29/8/13 18:24 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] sophia-sadek.livejournal.com
You have some markup problems.

(no subject)

Date: 29/8/13 18:31 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] sophia-sadek.livejournal.com
I have no idea what is happening. It is as if your markup commands are not being interpreted as HTML. Maybe it is an LJ problem.

(no subject)

Date: 29/8/13 18:36 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] enders-shadow.livejournal.com
to use a link, you use
less than sign a href="link">then you put blue text here that we will see, then you close it with another

(no subject)

Date: 29/8/13 18:37 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] enders-shadow.livejournal.com
Also, check if you have some rich-text format on; sometimes that'll happen and you've gotta click a button for a link, and it will ignore internal markups?

(no subject)

Date: 29/8/13 18:33 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] sophia-sadek.livejournal.com
The quote that most fascinates me is this one:
Bandar told Putin, “... As an example, I can give you a guarantee to protect the Winter Olympics in the city of Sochi on the Black Sea next year. The Chechen groups that threaten the security of the games are controlled by us, and they will not move in the Syrian territory’s direction without coordinating with us. These groups do not scare us. We use them in the face of the Syrian regime but they will have no role or influence in Syria’s political future.”

Putin thanked King Abdullah for his greetings and Bandar for his exposition, but then he said to Bandar, “We know that you have supported the Chechen terrorist groups for a decade. And that support, which you have frankly talked about just now, is completely incompatible with the common objectives of fighting global terrorism that you mentioned. We are interested in developing friendly relations according to clear and strong principles.”
It is as if the Saudis confessed to crimes against humanity.

(no subject)

Date: 3/9/13 15:19 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] sophia-sadek.livejournal.com
They care about the right to commit crimes against humanity.
(deleted comment)

(no subject)

Date: 3/9/13 15:21 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] sophia-sadek.livejournal.com
It's nice to have a smarmier villein who makes the less smarmy villein look like a hero.

(no subject)

Date: 29/8/13 18:46 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] dwer.livejournal.com
I was under the impression that what John Kerry said was undeniable was that chemical weapons had been used, and that all the existing evidence showed that Assad had not lost control of his chemical weapons stores. In other words, the report on whether or not Assad ordered the chemical weapons attack has not yet been established, and that was going to be relevant in decision-making -- which, please remember, Kerry doesn't do on his own.

I'm having a hard time imagining Putin actually doing something as crazy as this; I have a mental image of him that's egotistical as fuck but not insane. Perhaps I'm wrong.

Your markup doesn't work because you're in rich-text format. Note that you have things in bold without the tags.

(no subject)

Date: 29/8/13 19:04 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] dwer.livejournal.com
I don't work in soundbites. Look at the context.

Maybe they snipers are just bad at their jobs? I don't know.

(no subject)

Date: 30/8/13 02:13 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] vehemencet-t.livejournal.com
In other words, the report on whether or not Assad ordered the chemical weapons attack has not yet been established, and that was going to be relevant in decision-making -- which, please remember, Kerry doesn't do on his own.

The U.S. has been trying to dissuade the UN inspectors since the beginning and the Administration has gone on record saying its final decision will be based on its own U.S. intelligence assessment being funneled from supposed Mossad spies in Syria to the CIA and to the President, *not* the final report of the inspectors who have been given a hard enough time trying to do their job. Hardly a trustworthy bunch given all their mutual interest in a regime change for Syria.


I'm having a hard time imagining Putin actually doing something as crazy as this; I have a mental image of him that's egotistical as fuck but not insane.


I'm curious why you are calling out Putin as insane if he does this. Wouldn't Obama do the same if one of *the U.S.'s* allies was suddenly being attacked to protect their economic and military interests? Would you blame them the same way you are blaming Russia here? To me both will be guilty for the consequences that follow.

(no subject)

Date: 30/8/13 02:17 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] dwer.livejournal.com
1) everything I've read says that Obama is waiting for the US.

2) if that ally was using chemical weapons on civilians? I would hope he wouldn't, but realpolitik tells me he might. But I think that picking a fight with the only superpower left is pretty stupid.

(no subject)

Date: 30/8/13 02:33 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] vehemencet-t.livejournal.com
War itself is pretty stupid. But powerful people like that have different priorities than well-intentioned people like us. Hence what seems stupid to us is just collateral damage or acceptable sacrifices to them.

But yes, history shows the U.S. will step in covertly or otherwise if one of their propped-up dictatorships is being threatened, regardless of how they treat their own people.

(no subject)

Date: 30/8/13 17:58 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] yes-justice.livejournal.com
This suggests all were not on the same page anyway (http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2013/08/28/assad_nerve_gas_foreign_policy_reports_that_intercepted_phone_calls_convinced.html).

(no subject)

Date: 30/8/13 18:02 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] dwer.livejournal.com
I'm on record as saying I don't want anything to happen until the UN inspection results come back in and are evaluated.

(no subject)

Date: 30/8/13 18:50 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] yes-justice.livejournal.com
Gawd the options suck. There is little chance of positive outcomes from small tactical strikes and less from larger scale operations.

(no subject)

Date: 30/8/13 18:56 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] dwer.livejournal.com
I think Obama and Kerry should try to get the Arab League involved. Turkey and Saudi Arabia both want this situation resolved. Have THEM pick up the long-term effort.

(no subject)

Date: 30/8/13 19:02 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] yes-justice.livejournal.com
Word. At least they could escape that whole "army of the infidel" thing.

(no subject)

Date: 29/8/13 20:31 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] telemann.livejournal.com
If USA goes to war on Syria, Russia will be forced to defend it. By defending Syria I mean attacking Saudi Arabia. What we have here is a potential WW3.

That's a huge jump there isn't it?

(no subject)

Date: 29/8/13 20:50 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] kylinrouge.livejournal.com
We need a Jump To Conclusions mat for this one.

(no subject)

Date: 29/8/13 21:10 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] rimpala.livejournal.com
Mat nothing we need trained professionals and emergency personal on duty for these kind of jumps, doesn't anyone get what "don't try this at home" means?!?

(no subject)

Date: 30/8/13 00:29 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] mikeyxw.livejournal.com
Only in America would someone provide 30 year financing on a shelter to protect against the imminent end of the world.

(no subject)

Date: 30/8/13 03:55 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] rimpala.livejournal.com
This is pretty swank for a shelter, I'd almost just live in it instead of a home

(no subject)

Date: 30/8/13 22:47 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] enders-shadow.livejournal.com
hahahahaha, oh man, that's so much bigger than apartments in manhattan....

(no subject)

Date: 29/8/13 21:07 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] papasha-mueller.livejournal.com
@However, Putin himself just ordered a MASSIVE MILITARY STRIKE AGAINST SAUDI ARABIA if/when Syria is attacked. In refusing the threat (that Saudi will use Chechen terrorists under Saudi Arabian control to attack Russia,) Putin said from the Kremlin, "Our position on Assad will never change. We believe the Syrian Regime is the best speaker on behalf of the Syrian people, and not those liver eaters". Frankly this scares the shit out of me. Russia will defend Assad. Russia will attack Saudi Arabia.@

At this reading, my first thought was recommending the author to switch over to marijuana LIGHTS.

(no subject)

Date: 30/8/13 08:17 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] luvdovz.livejournal.com
At least you forgot to say "bullshit" this time.

(no subject)

Date: 30/8/13 00:37 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] underlankers.livejournal.com
You mean the same Russia that had major problems with Georgia is going to start WWIII over the USA bombing Syria or hitting it with missile strikes?

*eyebrow raise.*

(no subject)

Date: 31/8/13 05:41 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] anfalicious.livejournal.com
The country that couldn't beat the Georgians vs. the country that couldn't beat the Afghanis (well, both of them couldn't defeat the Afghanis).

(no subject)

Date: 30/8/13 02:14 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] enders-shadow.livejournal.com
I am going to question your source on one point.

Putin did not say he will strike Saudi Arabia if the west attacks Syria. I know you provided a link. Can you provide more proof?
I doubt the veracity of that statement; without that, the situation is less scary.

(no subject)

Date: 30/8/13 03:16 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] mikeyxw.livejournal.com
I doubt it as well, searching for 'Russia Saudi Arabia massive military strike' returns a bunch of results, none are news services that I recognize. Either the mainstream press missed the events which will lead up to WWIII or the sources, at least the ones available so far, aren't reliable enough to be used.

I'd also be a bit surprised if Saudi Arabia actually threatened Russia and told them they control the Chechen rebels. Of course, it's possible that a single story from an unknown source would have uncovered two of the biggest scoops of the year in one story, but I'm skeptical.

(no subject)

Date: 30/8/13 03:41 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] enders-shadow.livejournal.com
Yeah; I think this whole scenario has produced more misinformation than we might imagine.

Signal can be hard to find among the noise.

(no subject)

Date: 30/8/13 21:03 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] yes-justice.livejournal.com
The most serious crimes are clouded by the fog of war. I forget who said that.

(no subject)

Date: 30/8/13 22:45 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] enders-shadow.livejournal.com
fog of war? Man, I've had that disabled since Warcraft 2!

(no subject)

Date: 31/8/13 05:41 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] anfalicious.livejournal.com
I thought we went through this yesterday and found it to be bullshit.

(no subject)

Date: 30/8/13 12:28 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] peamasii.livejournal.com
The joint strike scenario seems unlikely, as the UK house of commons voted last night against military intervention. Most likely it will be just the US if French parliament finds some excuse to not participate either. Israel will beef up big along the northern border.

(no subject)

Date: 30/8/13 22:44 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] enders-shadow.livejournal.com
Israel has been issuing gas masks to it's citizens, and Assad has pledged to attack Israel if the US attacks Syria.

I wouldn't wanna be living in Tel Aviv next week.

(no subject)

Date: 30/8/13 17:57 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] yes-justice.livejournal.com
http://ecfr.eu/content/entry/commentary_eight_things_to_consider_before_intervening_in_syria

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