[identity profile] johnny9fingers.livejournal.com posting in [community profile] talkpolitics
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20796835

I quote from the start of the article:

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said sales rose 5.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.04 million last month.

Meanwhile the economy grew faster than previously thought in the third quarter, at an annualised rate of 3.1%.

Well, someone in the Obama administration must be doing something right. And with this much growth (in comparison to the rest of the developed world, an amazing figure) I'm sure he can just drive straight off the fiscal cliff without landing too hard. I'd say he has some wriggle-room here.

But what say you chaps?

(no subject)

Date: 20/12/12 17:20 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] pastorlenny.livejournal.com
It is indeed interesting that the media herd seems to be operating on the assumption that even the most inane deal is better than the doom presented by the so-called "cliff." But they know what they're talking about because, hey, they accurately predicted the dotcom bust, the collapse of the CDO market and every other economic convulsion of the last century.

(no subject)

Date: 20/12/12 17:51 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] policraticus.livejournal.com
What could possibly go wrong?

(no subject)

Date: 20/12/12 18:12 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] policraticus.livejournal.com
I say, one swallow does not make a summer.

(no subject)

Date: 20/12/12 18:30 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] policraticus.livejournal.com
No. Obviously not. It is a neutral factor. Most of this debate is revolving around principle, not practical questions. Raising, or lower taxes, how we restructure the tax code, any number of serious issues we face are independent of the economy. In short, Obama would want higher taxation and no cuts if the economy was flying high or if it was falling off a cliff, so to speak. And this goes for the GOP in the House, too. They want lower taxes and spending cuts. That is why we've reached this level of Kabuki theater.

(no subject)

Date: 20/12/12 19:14 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] policraticus.livejournal.com
Which way does that knife cut, though? Suppose the economy takes off in the next month, across the board production consumption, employment, etc are all obviously hugely positive and look to stay that way for the foreseeable future. How does that help anyone's argument for radically overhauling our tax system? It doesn't, it seem to me, argue for changing anything. First, do no harm, right? If both the GOP and Obama are making their proposals as a fix for the economy, then positive news is the last thing they want to hear.

(no subject)

Date: 20/12/12 19:24 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] policraticus.livejournal.com
the kind of America folk want to see

This is the debate we should be having.

(no subject)

Date: 21/12/12 03:21 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] mikeyxw.livejournal.com
I'd hope for something that would address medium and long term entitlement spending rather than kicking it down the road again. We're hitting these self-inflicted cliffs every year now. We know that pretty soon, those entering the workforce will not pay for those who are retiring at the current levels of taxation and spending, it's something we should fix rather than just fake the math for another year while the long term projections continue to show a huge gap.

I know I'm asking a lot, but Christmas is coming, so I thought I'd ask.

(no subject)

Date: 20/12/12 19:34 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] policraticus.livejournal.com
What, you aren't in favor of raising taxes, especially on the very rich and disproportionately cutting the Pentagon budget? How can that hurt anything? I foresee the Peaceable Kingdom, myself.

(no subject)

Date: 20/12/12 19:48 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] sophia-sadek.livejournal.com
What I prefer has little to do with what actually happens.

(no subject)

Date: 21/12/12 08:26 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] abomvubuso.livejournal.com
It's what you use for paragliding, right?

(no subject)

Date: 2/1/13 17:23 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] sophia-sadek.livejournal.com
Only on days when the political winds are favorable.

(no subject)

Date: 20/12/12 20:35 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] kylinrouge.livejournal.com
If the economy gets better it has nothing to do with Obama, if it gets worse it's Obama's fault, so really, he has no reason to alter his plans based on the state of the economy for any political points, because there are none to be had.

(no subject)

Date: 21/12/12 00:21 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] mikeyxw.livejournal.com
Obama got re-elected with almost 8% unemployment and in a dismal economy which he spent most of the previous four years blaming on Bush. Not exactly the stuff to wallow in self-pity about.

(no subject)

Date: 21/12/12 08:34 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] kylinrouge.livejournal.com
Maybe more of an indictment on Romney than Obama here.

(no subject)

Date: 21/12/12 00:18 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] mikeyxw.livejournal.com
Some of the growth we just saw was borrowed from the next couple of quarters. Companies are giving record dividends. People are selling homes. Of course, this is because they want to close out such deals before the end of the year as next year's expected tax raises. This quarter got an artificial boost just because of the fiscal cliff, it's a mistake to say that is a trend or that it will provide a cushion for the fiscal cliff.

(no subject)

Date: 21/12/12 01:16 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] papasha-mueller.livejournal.com
Precisely. All it takes to check the so-called 'season effect'. Christmas, EOQ.

(no subject)

Date: 21/12/12 02:30 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] anfalicious.livejournal.com
The article says they are seasonally adjusted figures, so that has already been checked and accounted for.

(no subject)

Date: 21/12/12 13:56 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] papasha-mueller.livejournal.com
Yes. Actually, it's a matter of fact HOW did they do this adjustment.
Accountancy is a terrible thing. Second after democracy.

(no subject)

Date: 21/12/12 02:35 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] the-rukh.livejournal.com
yeah maybe they should do something like adjust for the season, thereby the figures would become 'seasonally adjusted'....

(no subject)

Date: 21/12/12 02:53 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] peristaltor.livejournal.com
Realty is about the worst marking of progress, since they only sell houses. Our economy is well and truly about to undergo a momentous transformation, probably for the worse, but no one will know what it looks like until that transformation runs its course.

You want a bit of reality? Ask people who know (http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/david-stockman-blame-fed/62981).

(no subject)

Date: 21/12/12 20:46 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] peristaltor.livejournal.com
Yes, because the Fed is printing unbacked cash that is getting dumped into assets. Said incremental asset creep is preventing the 80s-90s overbuild from deflating to a more reasonable house price.

The Japanese are actually doing what the West should start doing, spending its accumulated wealth to pay for the retiring populace. Europe is saddled with the PIIGS, a beast that won't be broken no matter how much they cinch the bridle.

This isn't going to end well, but enjoy the ride while it lasts. Oh, and dump every vestige of debt you have as quickly as you can. Seriously.

(no subject)

Date: 21/12/12 12:37 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] il-mio-gufo.livejournal.com
people are only buying homes right now because the prices are pretty darn cheap! what the bubble expand then pop again! thats the problem with real-estate.

(no subject)

Date: 21/12/12 17:02 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] pastorlenny.livejournal.com
Low interest rates are also a lubricant.

(no subject)

Date: 21/12/12 20:50 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] il-mio-gufo.livejournal.com
haven't looked into anything myself. but, in the last oh say 7 months, i've seen folks approved for some $500/month mortgage payments **dirt cheap** i mean . . . how does that even happen?

(no subject)

Date: 21/12/12 21:06 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] notmrgarrison.livejournal.com
NAR

Dyslexic people with guns. Watch out.

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