The scramble for Cyprus
18/9/12 16:04![[identity profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/openid.png){kind=small}
mahnmut.livejournal.com posting in ![[community profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/community.png){kind=small}
talkpoliticsNow this is a slightly different sort of scramble, though. Two ethnic communities sharing (or rather, dividing) the same island, racing for the better access to the newly found gas deposits in the sea. Sounds like a crappy reality show on TV? Nope, we're broadcasting live from Cyprus, the isle of Aphrodite.
(clicky for biggy)
The question whether the gas deposits that were discovered next to the island would stimulate a closer cooperation between the two Cypriot communities sounds rather naive, IMO. More likely the sweet natural resources will become yet another obstacle to the unification of Cyprus. The Cypriots have lived separated for almost 4 decades (since Turkish troops occupied the northern, Turk-populated part of the island). The so called Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus is only recognized by Turkey (what a shock), unlike the internationally recognized Republic of Cyprus in the southern part, populated by the Greek Cypriots.
The stakes have grown immensely higher, now that gas has been found in the Levantine basin, and that's additionally fueling the tensions in a region that's already unstable enough. Mostly because of the traditionally strained relations between Greece and Turkey, and now between Turkey and Israel. There's a lot of money in the gas game: the latest geological explorations indicate that there are approx. 3.5 billion m3 of gas deposits around the Cypriot shores. That amount should be enough to match the entire global demand for a year. The thing is, as you can see from the map, the northern portion of the deposit is in Cypriot territorial waters while the rest is in Israeli and Lebanese waters. Remember the Turkish "aid" armada that was stopped by the Israelis with force? Smells like gas, or not? Well, to put this in further context, the US oil/gas company Noble Energy that's doing the drilling, has already confirmed the presence of 991 million m3 of gas, of which 1/5 is in Cypriot waters.
The Americans are presently working with their Israeli partners under a license that was issued by the Greek Cypriot authorities. And while the Greek Cypriots consider that part of the shelf their own, the Turk Cypriots claim that the drilling is illegal, as it's happening without their approval (and more importantly, without their participation). And that's no small matter, because I'm sure we remember the claim of Iraq that the Kuwaitis had been drilling their oil from beneath their shared border, which was largely what triggered the First Gulf War. Anyway. In turn, Turkey has threatened to send more ships to the region, and this time not humanitarian but military ones. This has revived the concerns of a possible escalation of the tensions on that front. There are even rumors of a new war brewing, this time because of Cyprus.
The UN has already stated that they're viewing the new gas field as a source of income, which could help finance the unification of the island. The US has declared their support for a just distribution of the resources, but in practice they're openly supporting the internationally recognized government of the Greek Cypriots (the Republic of Cyprus being part of the EU, and all). By 2020 Israel could be extracting gas worth 2-3 billion dollars annually (by current prices), the forecast says. And of course the closest possible market is Turkey, which entirely depends on the import of gas and oil. So you can imagine how Turkey feels about the prospect of being dependent for energy on Israel.
Despite the protests from the Turk Cypriot authorities about the one-sided exploitation of the gas deposits, 15 companies and corporations (including the US company Marathon Oil, the Italian Enel, etc) have applied for license for drilling in 9 new shelf sectors. Turkey is warning the applicants that they won't let them access the Turkish energy market in any shape or form, and confirms they'd keep supporting the Turk Cypriots and their territorial claims.
Thus, the more the drilling for gas expands in the region, the more fuel is being poured into the fire of the never-ending conflict between the two sides, and in the broader perspective, between Turkey and Israel - a conflict that's been boiling with a gradually increasing intensity in recent years. The long-time friendly relations between those two were severely cooled down after that little episode with the humanitarian flotilla that was sent to Gaza. It tried to sneak through the Israeli blockade and in response the Israeli special forces tried to board the ship, where they were met with knives and guns. 9 aid activists died in the melee, most of them Turkish citizens. Israel has viewed Cyprus as its major partner in the region instead of Turkey, ever since.
And of course this extends way beyond the mere skirmishes, because Turkey is now assuming a bolder stance in the region, trying to assert a position of a regional leader, an arbiter and an insurmountable geopolitical factor both for the Middle East and Europe, including in the energy sector (think the oil and gas pipelines that are supposed to connect Central Asia, Russia and the Caspian to ever hungry Europe). And Israel is certainly not liking this shift of the power balance, and this, plus the hunger for resources, is one of the reasons for the increasing passive-aggressiveness of the relations between most players in the region. Now Cyprus finding itself in the middle of it all. The heavier pieces on the chessboard have started moving now, and the stakes are high. Those will be interesting times.
(clicky for biggy)
The question whether the gas deposits that were discovered next to the island would stimulate a closer cooperation between the two Cypriot communities sounds rather naive, IMO. More likely the sweet natural resources will become yet another obstacle to the unification of Cyprus. The Cypriots have lived separated for almost 4 decades (since Turkish troops occupied the northern, Turk-populated part of the island). The so called Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus is only recognized by Turkey (what a shock), unlike the internationally recognized Republic of Cyprus in the southern part, populated by the Greek Cypriots.
The stakes have grown immensely higher, now that gas has been found in the Levantine basin, and that's additionally fueling the tensions in a region that's already unstable enough. Mostly because of the traditionally strained relations between Greece and Turkey, and now between Turkey and Israel. There's a lot of money in the gas game: the latest geological explorations indicate that there are approx. 3.5 billion m3 of gas deposits around the Cypriot shores. That amount should be enough to match the entire global demand for a year. The thing is, as you can see from the map, the northern portion of the deposit is in Cypriot territorial waters while the rest is in Israeli and Lebanese waters. Remember the Turkish "aid" armada that was stopped by the Israelis with force? Smells like gas, or not? Well, to put this in further context, the US oil/gas company Noble Energy that's doing the drilling, has already confirmed the presence of 991 million m3 of gas, of which 1/5 is in Cypriot waters.
The Americans are presently working with their Israeli partners under a license that was issued by the Greek Cypriot authorities. And while the Greek Cypriots consider that part of the shelf their own, the Turk Cypriots claim that the drilling is illegal, as it's happening without their approval (and more importantly, without their participation). And that's no small matter, because I'm sure we remember the claim of Iraq that the Kuwaitis had been drilling their oil from beneath their shared border, which was largely what triggered the First Gulf War. Anyway. In turn, Turkey has threatened to send more ships to the region, and this time not humanitarian but military ones. This has revived the concerns of a possible escalation of the tensions on that front. There are even rumors of a new war brewing, this time because of Cyprus.
The UN has already stated that they're viewing the new gas field as a source of income, which could help finance the unification of the island. The US has declared their support for a just distribution of the resources, but in practice they're openly supporting the internationally recognized government of the Greek Cypriots (the Republic of Cyprus being part of the EU, and all). By 2020 Israel could be extracting gas worth 2-3 billion dollars annually (by current prices), the forecast says. And of course the closest possible market is Turkey, which entirely depends on the import of gas and oil. So you can imagine how Turkey feels about the prospect of being dependent for energy on Israel.
Despite the protests from the Turk Cypriot authorities about the one-sided exploitation of the gas deposits, 15 companies and corporations (including the US company Marathon Oil, the Italian Enel, etc) have applied for license for drilling in 9 new shelf sectors. Turkey is warning the applicants that they won't let them access the Turkish energy market in any shape or form, and confirms they'd keep supporting the Turk Cypriots and their territorial claims.
Thus, the more the drilling for gas expands in the region, the more fuel is being poured into the fire of the never-ending conflict between the two sides, and in the broader perspective, between Turkey and Israel - a conflict that's been boiling with a gradually increasing intensity in recent years. The long-time friendly relations between those two were severely cooled down after that little episode with the humanitarian flotilla that was sent to Gaza. It tried to sneak through the Israeli blockade and in response the Israeli special forces tried to board the ship, where they were met with knives and guns. 9 aid activists died in the melee, most of them Turkish citizens. Israel has viewed Cyprus as its major partner in the region instead of Turkey, ever since.
And of course this extends way beyond the mere skirmishes, because Turkey is now assuming a bolder stance in the region, trying to assert a position of a regional leader, an arbiter and an insurmountable geopolitical factor both for the Middle East and Europe, including in the energy sector (think the oil and gas pipelines that are supposed to connect Central Asia, Russia and the Caspian to ever hungry Europe). And Israel is certainly not liking this shift of the power balance, and this, plus the hunger for resources, is one of the reasons for the increasing passive-aggressiveness of the relations between most players in the region. Now Cyprus finding itself in the middle of it all. The heavier pieces on the chessboard have started moving now, and the stakes are high. Those will be interesting times.
(no subject)
Date: 18/9/12 14:44 (UTC)http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/israels-new-allies-6441
"Today's realities—which include both already radicalized and radicalizing neighboring Arab states and parties and increasingly militant non-Arab Muslim states in an outer ring (Turkey, Iran, Pakistan)—have prompted Israel to expand its concept of the potentially friendly or even aligned "periphery" to include such states as Azerbaijan, India, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania and (Greek) Cyprus."
We're not only living in interesting times, but we here are living at an interesting place, I'm afraid.
(no subject)
Date: 18/9/12 15:26 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 18/9/12 18:39 (UTC)Rumor on the Milblogs is that the Isreali hardliners are not too pleased with the current administration and the recent riots have them jumpy. Baraka is with the islamists and there is an increasing sentiment that Isreal will either need to surrender ground (both political and physical) or go on the offensive.
(no subject)
Date: 19/9/12 13:31 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 19/9/12 01:16 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 19/9/12 07:31 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 19/9/12 22:26 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 20/9/12 07:14 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 19/9/12 13:30 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 18/9/12 15:35 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 18/9/12 16:50 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 18/9/12 17:03 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 18/9/12 17:10 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 18/9/12 17:13 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 18/9/12 18:55 (UTC)It's only when military force is used or at least threatened that the scales tip in Israel's favour. But since we agree that Israel doesn't want that sort of confrontation then the scales is clearly in Turkey's favour.
(no subject)
Date: 19/9/12 13:36 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 19/9/12 03:41 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 19/9/12 13:32 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 19/9/12 18:20 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 19/9/12 13:38 (UTC)