Something "Akin" to a Disaster

[malasadas.livejournal.com]

By now, it would be hard for U.S. political observers to have missed the firestorm caused by U.S. Representative Todd Akin (R-MO) and Republican nominee for the United States Senate seat against Senator Claire McCaskill (D-MO). In an interview, the candidate stated that in his understanding of biology, victims of "legitimate" rape rarely get pregnant because the undergoing trauma has ways of "to shut that whole thing down". Mr. Akin was swept up in an outpouring of derision for the implication that some forms of rape are more "legitimate" than others and for his creative and painfully wrong understanding of biology.

In relatively short order, Rep. Akin offered the standard form of apology claiming to have "misspoken" but without backing off of his long-held stance that there should be no exceptions to any ban on abortion. As could be expected, Democrats have not accepted the apology and intend to make as much political hay from Mr. Akin's remarks as possible.



Calls for Mr. Akin to drop his bid to unseat Senator McCaskill came in short order...from other conservatives. Rep. Akin had until 5pm yesterday to drop out of the race and allow the Missouri Republican party to select a new nominee easily. To facilitate that, Akin was pressured from all quarters of the Republican establishment. The NRSC reportedly told Akin that he would receive no monetary aid from them in his election campaign, and Carl Rove's Crossroads PAC has pulled nearly 5 million in pledged support. Republican figures from the moderate Scott Brown of Massachusetts to Sarah Palin have castigated Mr. Akin in public. The Romney campaign officially called on him to quit, and Mr. Akin says that he personally spoke to his former House colleague and Vice Presidential nominee Paul Ryan who told him it would be best for him to step down. The deadline to do so passed without Mr. Akin withdrawing from the race although the Republican party has turned him into a pariah.

On the one hand, it is understandable that Republicans would seek to rapidly distance themselves from Rep. Akin's statements. The Republicans believe they have a chance to take the Senate in November, and Senator McCaskill is viewed as one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the Senate -- A PPP flash poll taken immediately after the story broke gives Mr. Akin a 1 point lead over McCaskill, although the full story had not unfolded. Certainly, a candidate with a temperate tone of voice might fare better in a state that has tilted more conservative in recent years.

Republicans, especially in the Presidential campaign, also know that their "brand" has been successfully portrayed as hostile to issues such as abortion and contraception access that are widely viewed as "women's issues" and that portrait has a genuine effect in polling: Among women voters, the Republican ticket trails the President by 54% to 39%. The Romney campaign surely does not want Mr. Akin sticking around in a highly watched Senate race all the way to November, nor do they want any effort to pin Mr. Akin to their campaign to stick.

On the other hand, while reasonable anti-abortion advocates can find Mr. Akin's choice of words and knowledge of biology wanting, it is a little odd for the Republican establishment and commentariat to act as if Mr. Akin's hardline views on abortion are without a substantial constituency within their party. That was highlighted again just after Mr. Akin's psuedo-apology when a draft of the Republican Party Platform for the Tampa convention next week included an anti-abortion plank calling for a "human life amendment" and for legislation stating that the 14th amendment protections extend to the unborn -- with no language specifying exceptions for rape or incest. This is Mr. Akin's position.

Paul Ryan may have reached out to his House colleague for the good of the party's chances to win the U.S. Senate, but it could not have been because there is a great deal of daylight between the two men's positions on abortion. Ryan and Akin are barely distinguishable in their anti-abortion voting records with only one notable exception -- Mr. Ryan believes abortion should be allowed to save the life of a pregnant woman. Mr. Akin does not. However, both men joined 60 of the Republican colleagues to co-sponsor legislation that would declare human life beginning at conception.

None of this is particularly surprising to political observers who have long noted that the Republican party, at the very least, plays lip service to strongest anti-abortion sentiments in the country. It is hardly surprising then that such efforts would lead to a Republican caucus that contains such hardline views, but it is conversely odd that the party which is considering fully endorsing Mr. Akin's legislative views at their national convention both in the platform and in their Vice Presidential nominee would be so suddenly vehement is casting him as a pariah for expressing those views in an exceptionally insensitive manner.

When you waltz with a porcupine, when you go out of your way to seek out that porcupine and welcome it to your ball, you ought not be surprised when you get stuck.

Comments

[htpcl.livejournal.com]

Mind if your last sentence gets DQ'ed? :-)

[malasadas.livejournal.com]

Nope.

[notmrgarrison.livejournal.com]

Attention Mr DQ: http://talk-politics.livejournal.com/1533137.html?thread=123330257#t123330257

[htpcl.livejournal.com]

^

[devil-ad-vocate.livejournal.com]

Republicans can expect either Hurricane Issac or Hurricane Akin to have some consequences next week. Their platform committee showed incredible timing in adding the abortion item yesterday:
“Faithful to the ‘self-evident’ truths enshrined in the Declaration of Independence, we assert the sanctity of human life and affirm that the unborn child has a fundamental individual right to life which cannot be infringed. We support a human life amendment to the Constitution and endorse legislation to make clear that the Fourteenth Amendment’s protections apply to unborn children.”

[op-tech-glitch.livejournal.com]

You heard this latest shit? Rush Limbaugh says Obama is sending the hurricane toward Tampa all by his little ol' self to ruin the GOP convention.

http://www.politicususa.com/rush-limbaugh-claims-hurricane-obama-conspiracy-cancel-gop-convention.html

[devil-ad-vocate.livejournal.com]

Now I'm not sure whether Rush hates the 'gummint' weather people worse than all those 'FemiNazis'.

[telemann.livejournal.com]

Wow, the NWS sure is catching a lot of heat from extreme right wingers. Rand Paul was yakking about how they were stocking piling bullets or something.

[kylinrouge.livejournal.com]

I like how Rush is like "they're not talking about Biden," yeah buddy that's way more important than any other piece of news in history.

a fundamental right to life....

[rick-day.livejournal.com]

Should be a sticky situation come appeal for the Death Penalty. Right to Life?

Unless you kill someone. So what if a woman dies during childbirth and the child is born alive. Does the child then get the Death Penalty?

It's all so magical!

[musicpsych.livejournal.com]

Not to mention starve to death :/

I shouldn't joke about this, but if the woman's life is at risk if she has a baby, would an abortion be considered self-defense?

[politikitty.livejournal.com]

I think the comparison between Akin and Ryan is somewhat unfair. People should be reminded that the Republican Party considers abortion murder, even when the pregnancy is due to rape. But if you consider abortion murder, it doesn't make sense that another crime should give you a free pass on murder.

That belief makes rational sense (though I disagree), and isn't that uncommon. Akin's belief that women can't conceive during rape is batshit crazy and much less common. That belief is unscientific and wrong, but isn't actually the foundation of why they don't want an exemption for rape.

I remember a guy I volunteered with was convinced Karl Rove was going to kill Reagan to get a bump in the polls. His belief that Republicans are murderers is a bad reason to support Democratic candidates, but that doesn't mean supporting Democrats is a crazy belief given certain political preferences. There are plenty of people who hold perfectly normal political beliefs for a number of crazy reasons.

What's curious to me about the whole affair is the fact that Claire McCatskill threw a lot of money into the ring to guarantee she'd end up with the crackpot candidate. Politically, it makes sense. Akin was bound to alienate independent voters, giving the Democratic underdog a leg up. But it's a political strategy that has terrible externalities. We're lucky he spoke out now. If he had kept his mouth shut for four months, it's likely this man would be in the Senate. We're polluting the well of future candidates, even though we know we can't win every single race.

People gamble in politics with their eyes on the prize if they win. A good democracy should have people rationally consider the inevitability that they will occasionally lose. This irrational optimism is what creates economic bubbles and deep recessions. And that's just money. Government policies have such a wider reach. People complain that the two parties are too similar. Given the huge risks, I don't understand why we would tolerate such a wide disparity. The more liberal policy I pursue increases the risk actual policy will be that much right of center.

[op-tech-glitch.livejournal.com]

I always held it against Reagan himself for croaking at the worst possible time and giving the GOP some sympathy votes. But then, my grudge against him goes way way back.

[malasadas.livejournal.com]

I can't say that I give Mr. Ryan very much daylight between him and Akin. I stipulated to one major difference between their views, and Ryan most ikely has a better understanding of biology, but he and Akin vote or essentially the same policies regarding abortion. Akin's "sin" was to express them in a way that is objectively repugnant. He was trying to justify his nasty position on not allowing an exception for rape victims, and he said it in a stupid, disgusting way. Ryan justifies the same position by not talking about it.

For the record, I don't like McCaskill's tactic either...it doesn't just elevate an ideologue. It elevates a freaking idiot into a genuine contender for the United States Senate, but I don't think tha Mr. Akin is exactly alone in his extremism here.

[politikitty.livejournal.com]

I have to disagree. Akin's comments have gone well beyond the typical extreme "no child deserves to be punished for the sins of the father" view of anti-abortion views. I strongly disagree with that policy decision which he shares with Ryan. But I can understand that you do not have to hate women to put the rights of an unborn child above her right to control her womb. It's simply an unfortunate fact of life.

The cruelty of Akin's comments is that he just told the estimated 26,000 women a year who get pregnant through rape that they must have been asking for it. That they are likely lying about the crime. He's legitimizing a common shame among rape victims that any unconscious physical reaction they had to their rape is actually proof that they wanted it.

Yes. It would be difficult that I would have to bring my rapist's child to term, though it's a decision many women choose to make. It would be a nightmare if that child was submitted into evidence to repeal a rape conviction.

It's not just 'bad science'. It was deplorable hatred towards women masquerading as science. That difference between the two views might not matter on the abortion front. But it sure misses the point about why that comment cuts so deep.

[telemann.livejournal.com]

Steve Kornacki said yesterday on "The Cycle," Akin will probably end up winning the Senate seat, and explained how the more extreme Tea Party candidates in Nevada, and Colorado lost in the general elections in those states because they're much more purple states than Missouri (e..g in Colorado Puck lost by a few percentage points). Mr. Kornacki thinks what will help Akin is Missourians are pretty angry with Senator McCaskill for her support for President Obama. The state is polling heavily for Mitt Romney and in the last few election cycles, you're seeing less and less of voters splitting tickets for offices (due to increasing voter polarization according to Mr. Kornacki).

And once October polling shows Akin ahead, those Republican leaning PACs will turn the money back on.

[politikitty.livejournal.com]

Here's the thing, Akin is probably not harming his campaign as much as he is Mitt Romney's. When voters are primed to think about criminalizing abortion in instances of rape, they're less likely to identify as pro-life. Women are less likely to consider voting Republican. And they're not thinking about the sluggish economy or the evil Obamacare or the benefits of a 'balanced budget', which might convince folks to abandon Team Obama.

The more Akin decides he needs to defend himself, the more national press he's going to get. And Akin seems pretty convinced he needs to go on a crusade to defend his good name against the evil liberal media. Frankly, if he doesn't get back on message soon, he's going to lose even if Missouri agrees rape babies can't exist. He needs to be campaigning, not doing PR.

Romney has already forcefully called for him to step down. If he can't shut down the Akin train wreck, following through on starving his campaign is his next best option to try and reverse these comparisons between Akin and the rest of the Republican platform.

Of course, the GOP might decide that Romney won't survive the hit to moderates in Virginia/Ohio/Pennsylvania, and decide to at least salvage Akin's campaign. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out.

[robintheshrew.livejournal.com]

The title is killing me, has no one made that pun before XD

(frozen) (no subject)

[root-fu.livejournal.com]

This is almost as bad as Obama not knowing how many states are in his country.



Almost. As. Bad.

(frozen) (no subject)

[telemann.livejournal.com]

No, they're pretty different things. Rep. Akin's comments were much much worse.

(frozen) (no subject)

[yes-justice.livejournal.com]

Totally off topic.

(frozen) (no subject)

[usekh.livejournal.com]

It's not even in the same =country= let alone ballpark. And anyone who thinks they are even =remotely= comparable is barely worth being calling a drooling misogynistic troglodyte.

(frozen) (no subject)

[htpcl.livejournal.com]

Stop trolling, or we'll be seeing your back soon.

[sophia-sadek.livejournal.com]

Comments are frozen, so I will respond here. When someone misspeaks, saying 57 instead of 47, it does not mean that they lack knowledge. Support the man's oops.

[sophia-sadek.livejournal.com]

Rachel Maddow says that McCaskill was "Akin" to have the guy as an opponent: