Ukraine - Russia's tool?
9/8/12 18:05![[identity profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/openid.png){kind=small}
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talkpoliticsUkraine is starting to bear a striking resemblance to Russia! It's taking huge leaps towards autocracy, and erasing the last remaining traces of democracy! President Yanukovich seems very keen on copying the nice example of his northern neighbour Putin! At least that's what many observers (especially in the West) have been saying. Well, perhaps we might delve a bit deeper into the matter, and see if the comparisons are apt?
Yulia Tymoshenko has spent a year behind bars now. The former PM was sentenced to 7 years in jail on charges of abuse of power at the time she was signing the gas agreements with Russia. Meanwhile, there's another trial against her - this one for tax evasion. Other members of her former government are sleeping in a cold damp place as well, for example her foreign minister Yuri Lutsenko.
So what about the "nice" example from the northern neighbour? Indeed, at a first glance, all of this strikingly resembles the developments in Russia, where the former oil mogul Khodorkovsky has now spent 9 years behind bars. The West believes he's a victim of a political farce - something the Russian authorities vehemently deny. The Western media and foreign observers believe the trial against Tymoshenko is proof that Yanukovych has been deliberately steering Ukraine on Russia's path since day one of his reign.
All indications show that the current Ukrainian elite is acting as if it has no intention to relinquish power, ever. The Party of Regions that's been ruling for the last few years, is in fact the "party of the power elites". It's trying to dominate the political scene at all possible levels. Another parallel with Russia can be recognised in the attempts of the Ukrainian rulers to undermine the opposition and put it under complete control. Which is of course the common practice in Russia. The Ukrainian system is walking down that beaten path now.
There are other parallels too. In 2000 when the former KGB agent Putin was picked up for president of Russia, he put some of his closest aides and former associates from the secret services (most of them from his home town St.Petersburg) at the key positions of power. Today, Yanukovych is acting in very much the same manner - many of the key positions in Ukraine are now distributed between people from his home region of Donetsk. Half the members of the government have worked in Donetsk at some point. Ukraine is also borrowing examples from the Russian legislation. Recently the Russian Duma introduced amendments to a bill concerning "defamation and libel", drawing severe criticism from many civil rights organisations and journalists. Such a bill is already being cooked in Ukraine as well.
What about the differences, then? There must be some? Well, for one, Kiev is trying to establish a vertical power structure and put the parliament (Rada) under control, to increase the presidential prerogatives and run the opposition into a corner. But unlike Russia, in Ukraine there isn't much fruitful soil for breeding such a system. There's no rain of money, no broad popular support, there's no unified state apparatus that could stand behind the president. Just many factions, each pursuing their own interests, the bulk of their interests only happening to temporarily coincide with the president's agenda. And it's not like he's not a skilled politician who could maneuver between these interests and manipulate these groups, in order to keep everything under his control. But it's more like a fragile balance than anything resembling the firm grip on power that Putin has enjoyed in Russia. So the Ukrainian autocratic regime is fairly unstable.
Indeed, when we look closer, the political model in today's Ukraine is significantly different from the Russian one. After the dissolution of the USSR, the ruling elite in Russia established an oligarchic model, uniting oligarchs and state bureaucrats under one umbrella. Granted, first Yeltsin promoted his own group of oligarchs who'd serve his interests, and then when Putin came in his place, he swept most of those away, only to substitute them with his own oligarchs. In Ukraine there are the roots of a similar system, but the president Yanukovych has managed to modify it quite skillfully, bringing it to a point where he takes all decisions single-handedly. And bears most of the responsibility for them, respectively. In this sense, the Ukrainian model is more akin to that of Belarus, where Lukashenko has ruled with an iron hand for a decade and a half.
Meanwhile, most Western analysts believe that Ukraine is still far from such level of dictatorial rule. There's a strong opposition within the country (and I'm not talking about Femen who are showing bare boobs to draw attention), and massive popular protests could not be crushed with violence, the way Putin and Lukashenko have done. But there's also the possibility that after the elections in autumn, Ukraine would indeed start looking more like Russia, if not even Belarus. The 2004 election that followed after the Orange Revolution was declared fair and democratic by everybody, and the foreign observers have had the courtesy to claim the same about all subsequent elections in Ukraine. But mass rigging is not to be ruled out at the coming parliamentary election. All indications point to Yanukovych tightening his grip on power. The latest proof of that is that Ukraine has been following the Russian example in terms of suppressing the freedom of the press, on top of everything.
And meanwhile, there's a gradual process going on under the surface, hinting of huge rifts opening right in the middle of the Ukrainian society (and territory). And these have little to do with freedom and democracy. They're cultural, ethnic, linguistic, and hence, much deeper.
Yulia Tymoshenko has spent a year behind bars now. The former PM was sentenced to 7 years in jail on charges of abuse of power at the time she was signing the gas agreements with Russia. Meanwhile, there's another trial against her - this one for tax evasion. Other members of her former government are sleeping in a cold damp place as well, for example her foreign minister Yuri Lutsenko.
So what about the "nice" example from the northern neighbour? Indeed, at a first glance, all of this strikingly resembles the developments in Russia, where the former oil mogul Khodorkovsky has now spent 9 years behind bars. The West believes he's a victim of a political farce - something the Russian authorities vehemently deny. The Western media and foreign observers believe the trial against Tymoshenko is proof that Yanukovych has been deliberately steering Ukraine on Russia's path since day one of his reign.
All indications show that the current Ukrainian elite is acting as if it has no intention to relinquish power, ever. The Party of Regions that's been ruling for the last few years, is in fact the "party of the power elites". It's trying to dominate the political scene at all possible levels. Another parallel with Russia can be recognised in the attempts of the Ukrainian rulers to undermine the opposition and put it under complete control. Which is of course the common practice in Russia. The Ukrainian system is walking down that beaten path now.
There are other parallels too. In 2000 when the former KGB agent Putin was picked up for president of Russia, he put some of his closest aides and former associates from the secret services (most of them from his home town St.Petersburg) at the key positions of power. Today, Yanukovych is acting in very much the same manner - many of the key positions in Ukraine are now distributed between people from his home region of Donetsk. Half the members of the government have worked in Donetsk at some point. Ukraine is also borrowing examples from the Russian legislation. Recently the Russian Duma introduced amendments to a bill concerning "defamation and libel", drawing severe criticism from many civil rights organisations and journalists. Such a bill is already being cooked in Ukraine as well.
What about the differences, then? There must be some? Well, for one, Kiev is trying to establish a vertical power structure and put the parliament (Rada) under control, to increase the presidential prerogatives and run the opposition into a corner. But unlike Russia, in Ukraine there isn't much fruitful soil for breeding such a system. There's no rain of money, no broad popular support, there's no unified state apparatus that could stand behind the president. Just many factions, each pursuing their own interests, the bulk of their interests only happening to temporarily coincide with the president's agenda. And it's not like he's not a skilled politician who could maneuver between these interests and manipulate these groups, in order to keep everything under his control. But it's more like a fragile balance than anything resembling the firm grip on power that Putin has enjoyed in Russia. So the Ukrainian autocratic regime is fairly unstable.
Indeed, when we look closer, the political model in today's Ukraine is significantly different from the Russian one. After the dissolution of the USSR, the ruling elite in Russia established an oligarchic model, uniting oligarchs and state bureaucrats under one umbrella. Granted, first Yeltsin promoted his own group of oligarchs who'd serve his interests, and then when Putin came in his place, he swept most of those away, only to substitute them with his own oligarchs. In Ukraine there are the roots of a similar system, but the president Yanukovych has managed to modify it quite skillfully, bringing it to a point where he takes all decisions single-handedly. And bears most of the responsibility for them, respectively. In this sense, the Ukrainian model is more akin to that of Belarus, where Lukashenko has ruled with an iron hand for a decade and a half.
Meanwhile, most Western analysts believe that Ukraine is still far from such level of dictatorial rule. There's a strong opposition within the country (and I'm not talking about Femen who are showing bare boobs to draw attention), and massive popular protests could not be crushed with violence, the way Putin and Lukashenko have done. But there's also the possibility that after the elections in autumn, Ukraine would indeed start looking more like Russia, if not even Belarus. The 2004 election that followed after the Orange Revolution was declared fair and democratic by everybody, and the foreign observers have had the courtesy to claim the same about all subsequent elections in Ukraine. But mass rigging is not to be ruled out at the coming parliamentary election. All indications point to Yanukovych tightening his grip on power. The latest proof of that is that Ukraine has been following the Russian example in terms of suppressing the freedom of the press, on top of everything.
And meanwhile, there's a gradual process going on under the surface, hinting of huge rifts opening right in the middle of the Ukrainian society (and territory). And these have little to do with freedom and democracy. They're cultural, ethnic, linguistic, and hence, much deeper.
(no subject)
Date: 9/8/12 15:41 (UTC)You're right about the Donetsk link. They call it the Wave from Donetsk (http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/the-dubious-businees-of-ukraine-president-yanukovych-and-his-clan-a-833127.html) that's sweeping across Ukrainian politics. Yulia's imprisonment was part of this business war. She was known as the Gas Queen, the puppet of another such circle which had risen to power on the wings of the Orange Revolution. And with her demise and removal from the political scene, the path was cleared for The Family and its present dominance.
(no subject)
Date: 9/8/12 15:46 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 9/8/12 15:46 (UTC)It's such a worn-out cliche, but it's true.
(no subject)
Date: 9/8/12 16:34 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 9/8/12 17:38 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 9/8/12 17:37 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 9/8/12 17:45 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 11/8/12 01:26 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 10/8/12 15:25 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 10/8/12 16:46 (UTC)Yanukovych relies on the power of the industrial moguls of the Donetsk region - mining, steel, machinery and other heavy industry, which is the backbone of East Ukraine. With time, those have moved to the banking and estates sector and now dominate it as well. And lastly, after bringing down Tymoshenko's clique (which had appropriated the trade with Russian transit gas), he has his hands on most levers of the economy.
(no subject)
Date: 11/8/12 05:05 (UTC)