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talkpoliticsFirst of all, happy July 4 to all American pals! So let's talk about this uphill battle that everyone keeps theoretising about. Let us start by saying that no doubt behind Obama's remarkable election victory in 2008 there was the significant youth element. Lots of young people got mobilised to vote for Obama, including through the means of online campaigning. But now the president will have to work even harder than he did back then - and not just to win the votes of the youngest voters who have just acquired their voting right... but he will probably struggle to even keep the youth vote at its previous levels. Although the young Americans tend to lean heavily to the left and vote democrat in their vast majority, a large part of them now share their elders' disillusion with the economic situation in the country, and this will inevitably reflect on November's election.
I don't want to be a downer, but let's be realistic. The moods among the various generations in the US will be decisive for the outcome of this vote, and there are tendencies showing that Obama will be facing a great challenge in regards to the so called Y-Generation. Surveys among the young voters indicate that they are not as enthusiastic about politics in general and voting in particular, as they used to be 4 years ago when they invested a lot of hope in Obama. Now many of them are disappointed with the deteriorated financial environment and there is a risk that they would want to punish him - not necessarily by voting for Romney (which is highly unlikely), but by just skipping this election and not turning up to the polls. What's more, the republicans still have some momentum from the 2010 House elections, when their success was largely thanks to the mobilisation of the older voters. If republicans manage to channel this anger energy, Obama would really be in trouble.
What's more, Internet will no longer be the sole domain of the democrats any more. It seems that unlike the youth, people from the so called Silent Generation, who have always been prone to voting more conservatively, are more interested in the coming election than they were 4 years ago (when many of them probably didn't vote because they were certain that Obama would win anyway). Besides, older Americans from this generation are now doing much better with Internet technologies, they use the social networks, etc. Surveys show that more than 50% of Americans over 65 now regularly use the Internet. So, preparing a strong online campaign wouldn't only reach the younger voters, it would also reach the older. Therefore the activeness of the republicans around the social networks, although a little delayed, is not to be underestimated. Firstly because they can reach their hardcore followers in one more way and mobilise them even more against Obama, and secondly because they could try to recruit some of those youngsters who are most disillusioned with the president's policies. And there is no lack of those.
No doubt the economy is the single most important issue for all generations, and it will largely decide the outcome of the vote. Next on the list are unemployment, health care, the job market. Foreign policy ranks much further down the list, including with the youth. It is normal that Americans would be focused on America right now, at a time of crisis. The war in Afghanistan is not regarded as important as it used to be, and Iraq is again that distant place beyond many seas that hardly anyone cares about. This is normal.
Of course, Obama has his advantages in the battle for the votes of Generation Y. Firstly, the fact that the youth were not very affected by the subprime mortgage crisis. At least not as severely affected as the generation of their parents. But on the other side, now when they are at the entrance to their independent life, after graduating high school or college, they will have to plunge head on, and face serious problems like unemployment, student loans, expensive high education and all the difficulties with finding a home.
The republicans have one strong card in their deck, which they could use to try to win the votes of Generation Y, and it is the fact that these youngsters are facing all of these problems for the first time exactly during Obama's tenure. So his term will partly be associated with the deteriorated economic situation, no matter if he is to blame for it or not. This reality, combined with the aggressive rhetoric of the republicans, could attract a lot of angry young people to the conservative side.
There are also other potential dangers for Obama in the way of life of all generations, because the deteriorating living standard overall and the widening gap between the middle class and the wealthiest could affect the moods immediately before the vote. There are an increasing number of multigeneration families in the US, and there are several factors for this. The recession is forcing many families to share a household; more and more young people are postponing the moment of settling down and making a family of their own (because of the economic hardships and because making a career becomes an increasing priority); the influx of immigrants also contributes to the increase of multigeneration families, etc.
Those who were born after WW2, the famous Baby-Boomers, are also in an interesting situation. Now they are turning into something like the Sandwich Generation, because they are squeezed between their parents who are now retired, and their children who are facing enormous difficulties with becoming economically independent. The baby-boomers themselves are extremely concerned about their own finances and they are doing their best to postpone retirement.
If previously the common wisdom was that a person ought to become financially independent at 20 years of age, now most Americans think the more suitable age is somewhere around 25. So there is a new phenomenon forming among the American youth, called "delayed adulthood". And also the "helicopter parents", who continue circling over their children even after they have finished college and have got a job. There are cases when the parents of a young job candidate who has been rejected on an interview, would call at the company and demand explanation from the management why their son or daughter has been dismissed.
The only enemy of the republicans at this point could be Mitt Romney himself. If the youth, no matter how angry with the too slow recovery under Obama, still fail to find inspiration in the republican candidate, and to recognise a viable alternative to the current president, they would either hold their nose and still vote Obama, or more likely just ignore the polls. Which is the republicans' chance to cause an upset.
I don't want to be a downer, but let's be realistic. The moods among the various generations in the US will be decisive for the outcome of this vote, and there are tendencies showing that Obama will be facing a great challenge in regards to the so called Y-Generation. Surveys among the young voters indicate that they are not as enthusiastic about politics in general and voting in particular, as they used to be 4 years ago when they invested a lot of hope in Obama. Now many of them are disappointed with the deteriorated financial environment and there is a risk that they would want to punish him - not necessarily by voting for Romney (which is highly unlikely), but by just skipping this election and not turning up to the polls. What's more, the republicans still have some momentum from the 2010 House elections, when their success was largely thanks to the mobilisation of the older voters. If republicans manage to channel this anger energy, Obama would really be in trouble.
What's more, Internet will no longer be the sole domain of the democrats any more. It seems that unlike the youth, people from the so called Silent Generation, who have always been prone to voting more conservatively, are more interested in the coming election than they were 4 years ago (when many of them probably didn't vote because they were certain that Obama would win anyway). Besides, older Americans from this generation are now doing much better with Internet technologies, they use the social networks, etc. Surveys show that more than 50% of Americans over 65 now regularly use the Internet. So, preparing a strong online campaign wouldn't only reach the younger voters, it would also reach the older. Therefore the activeness of the republicans around the social networks, although a little delayed, is not to be underestimated. Firstly because they can reach their hardcore followers in one more way and mobilise them even more against Obama, and secondly because they could try to recruit some of those youngsters who are most disillusioned with the president's policies. And there is no lack of those.
No doubt the economy is the single most important issue for all generations, and it will largely decide the outcome of the vote. Next on the list are unemployment, health care, the job market. Foreign policy ranks much further down the list, including with the youth. It is normal that Americans would be focused on America right now, at a time of crisis. The war in Afghanistan is not regarded as important as it used to be, and Iraq is again that distant place beyond many seas that hardly anyone cares about. This is normal.
Of course, Obama has his advantages in the battle for the votes of Generation Y. Firstly, the fact that the youth were not very affected by the subprime mortgage crisis. At least not as severely affected as the generation of their parents. But on the other side, now when they are at the entrance to their independent life, after graduating high school or college, they will have to plunge head on, and face serious problems like unemployment, student loans, expensive high education and all the difficulties with finding a home.
The republicans have one strong card in their deck, which they could use to try to win the votes of Generation Y, and it is the fact that these youngsters are facing all of these problems for the first time exactly during Obama's tenure. So his term will partly be associated with the deteriorated economic situation, no matter if he is to blame for it or not. This reality, combined with the aggressive rhetoric of the republicans, could attract a lot of angry young people to the conservative side.
There are also other potential dangers for Obama in the way of life of all generations, because the deteriorating living standard overall and the widening gap between the middle class and the wealthiest could affect the moods immediately before the vote. There are an increasing number of multigeneration families in the US, and there are several factors for this. The recession is forcing many families to share a household; more and more young people are postponing the moment of settling down and making a family of their own (because of the economic hardships and because making a career becomes an increasing priority); the influx of immigrants also contributes to the increase of multigeneration families, etc.
Those who were born after WW2, the famous Baby-Boomers, are also in an interesting situation. Now they are turning into something like the Sandwich Generation, because they are squeezed between their parents who are now retired, and their children who are facing enormous difficulties with becoming economically independent. The baby-boomers themselves are extremely concerned about their own finances and they are doing their best to postpone retirement.
If previously the common wisdom was that a person ought to become financially independent at 20 years of age, now most Americans think the more suitable age is somewhere around 25. So there is a new phenomenon forming among the American youth, called "delayed adulthood". And also the "helicopter parents", who continue circling over their children even after they have finished college and have got a job. There are cases when the parents of a young job candidate who has been rejected on an interview, would call at the company and demand explanation from the management why their son or daughter has been dismissed.
The only enemy of the republicans at this point could be Mitt Romney himself. If the youth, no matter how angry with the too slow recovery under Obama, still fail to find inspiration in the republican candidate, and to recognise a viable alternative to the current president, they would either hold their nose and still vote Obama, or more likely just ignore the polls. Which is the republicans' chance to cause an upset.
(no subject)
Date: 4/7/12 19:52 (UTC)You say that like it's a bad thing.
Every incumbent (and non-incumbent) should be treated with skepticism and critical thinking. Not just elected because Yay! \o/
If previously the common wisdom was that a person ought to become financially independent at 20 years of age, now most Americans think the more suitable age is somewhere around 25. So there is a new phenomenon forming among the American youth, called "delayed adulthood". And also the "helicopter parents", who continue circling over their children even after they have finished college and have got a job. There are cases when the parents of a young job candidate who has been rejected on an interview, would call at the company and demand explanation from the management why their son or daughter has been dismissed.
Previous common wisdom when? During the last thirty years? Yeah, I understand people have been moving out at age 18 and finding ways to make it, but the definition of "financially independent" has changed in the last generation too. It used to mean food, shelter, clothing and maybe transportation of your own. Now it's the smartphone and its charges, the Netflix account, internet access, restaurant food, the five dollar daily coffee.
Back in the age of the dinosaurs, when I was growing up, multigenerational families were expected (although not the norm), and putting grandma in a home wasn't an automatic unless the family had the money to do so. It's only in the last few decades that expectations have changed so drastically that going back to more than two adults under the same roof is considered impoverishment.
And lol, wut? Helicopter parents calling the company? Wow, what emotional dysfunction. That's not about the kid, that's about the adult who raised them throwing a temper tantrum because it looks bad for their parenting skills.
God save me from my own generation.
(no subject)
Date: 5/7/12 07:26 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 4/7/12 20:15 (UTC)(no subject)
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Date: 5/7/12 02:01 (UTC)BritishRoman Empire to run itself.(no subject)
Date: 5/7/12 02:22 (UTC)BritishRomanto run themselves.(no subject)
Date: 5/7/12 03:37 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 5/7/12 03:40 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 5/7/12 03:42 (UTC)Obviously all the Australopithecus died off because of second hand smoke.
(no subject)
Date: 5/7/12 03:47 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 5/7/12 05:31 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 5/7/12 07:39 (UTC)(no subject)
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Date: 5/7/12 07:38 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 5/7/12 07:35 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 5/7/12 03:27 (UTC)Etruscans British RomanTrojan Empire to run themselves.(no subject)
Date: 5/7/12 03:35 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 5/7/12 03:40 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 5/7/12 03:44 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 5/7/12 03:46 (UTC)(no subject)
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Date: 5/7/12 03:44 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 5/7/12 05:08 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 5/7/12 06:59 (UTC)My main point is that many Republicans are saying that the economy is not strong enough and that Obama has spent too much coin. But in order to rebuild a wreck, you need to spend some coin to repair it.
(no subject)
Date: 5/7/12 07:07 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 5/7/12 17:51 (UTC)Oh, wait! That wasn't Clinton, was it?
(no subject)
Date: 5/7/12 19:09 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 7/7/12 20:47 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 5/7/12 07:33 (UTC)Helicopter generation!
In my observation, the wrongdoings of the previous president can only serve as an excuse for a new one for the first half of their term. There comes a moment when those explanations lose of their power and people stop heeding them, and start asking the question "But what did you do to fix this?"
I am not saying this is right, but there it is.
(no subject)
Date: 6/7/12 08:39 (UTC)Anyway, Obama has done hundreds of things economically to rebuild the burned out wreck that he got saddled with. Thankfully he has an economics degree and if you mean the average person has no clue how close we can to a depression, you may be right. But still the great recession was the 2nd worse this country has gotten smashed up economically, and Obama can take credit for rebuilding and improving things. Just wish he had forced the banks to pay their fair share of the repair bills.
http://www.whathasobamadone.org/
(no subject)
Date: 4/7/12 22:22 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 5/7/12 07:41 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 5/7/12 14:23 (UTC)http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/07/cnn-poll-obama-by-3-nationally-as-democratic-enthusiasm-ticks-up.php
Democrats have a solid uptick when it comes to voter enthusiasm. Forty-six percent of Democrats described themselves as “extremely” or “very” enthusiastic about the election in a CNN poll from late March. That number climbed to 59 percent in the current poll. Enthusiasm among Republicans dipped slightly, from 51 percent to 52 percent in March.
(no subject)
Date: 5/7/12 15:50 (UTC)Also, consider the 2008 enthusiasm numbers (http://www.gallup.com/poll/111115/Democrats-Election-Enthusiasm-Far-Outweighs-Republicans.aspx) by Gallup a couple weeks before the election. The Democrats, even with this uptick, are way down (-12) and Republicans about the same even after getting some significantly bad news.
(no subject)
Date: 4/7/12 22:53 (UTC)A lot of factors against Obama are simply that the conditions aren't the same as they were in 2008. The economy was in a freefall, we were still in Iraq, all sorts of shit.
I think this might be the closest election since 2000. I think it's all gonna depend on Ohio.
(no subject)
Date: 5/7/12 05:22 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 5/7/12 18:00 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 5/7/12 08:01 (UTC)The perception of a recession has more to do with the job market, which is still tough, rather than the growth rate, which is just uninspiring.
This is probably more relevant to Obama's re-election chances anyhow. I expect a layoffless recession wouldn't hurt Obama's chances as much as a jobless recovery, even though the former indicates a worse economy.
(no subject)
Date: 5/7/12 05:01 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 5/7/12 15:30 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 5/7/12 17:58 (UTC)During the Bush years, a military officer called me a Communist. I retorted that Bush is a prolish despot, so that made him the Communist.